Tony Predictions: Original Score – Three Big Contenders And a Few Wild Cards Including Lin-Manuel Miranda

Gordon Cox and Clayton Davis

1 May 2023 at 1:04 pm·3-min read

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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UPDATED: May 1, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Original Score

Weekly Commentary: The category for score has a trio of assured shows in contention, with nominations certain to come to Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire for “Kimberly Akimbo,” Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman for “Some Like It Hot” and Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally for “Shucked.”

With “New York, New York” deemed ineligible (because so many of its tunes were drawn from the pre-existing Kander and Ebb canon), this category seems to be the one in which the short-lived “KPOP” is most likely to earn some recognition. Or the final spot could go to “Almost Famous,” with original music by Broadway regular Tom Kitt and to his co-lyricist Cameron Crowe.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

The Tony Awards eligibility cutoff date for the 2022–23 season is April 27, 2023, for all Broadway productions which meet all other eligibility requirements. The 2023 Tony Awards nominations will be announced on May 2, 2023.

The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) — Jeanine Tesori, David Lindsay-Abaire
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre) — Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre) — Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre) — John Kander, Lin-Manuel Miranda

Next in Line

“KPOP” (Circle in the Square Theatre) — Helen Park, Max Vernon
“Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre) — Tom Kitt, Cameron Crowe

All Eligible Shows (Unranked)

“Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre) — Tom Kitt, Cameron Crowe
“Bad Cinderella” (Imperial Theatre) — Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Zippel
“Cost of Living” (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre) — Mikaal Sulaiman
“Death of a Salesman” (Hudson Theatre) — Femi Temowo
“KPOP” (Circle in the Square Theatre) — Helen Park, Max Vernon
“Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) — Jeanine Tesori, David Lindsay-Abaire
“The Kite Runner” (Hayes Theater) — Jonathan Girling
“Leopoldstadt” (Longacre Theatre) — Adam Cork
“New York, New York” (St. James Theatre) — John Kander, Lin-Manuel Miranda
“The Piano Lesson” (Barrymore Theatre) — Alvin Hough Jr.
“Prima Facie” (Golden Theatre) — Rebecca Lucy Taylor
“Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre) — Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally
“Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre) — Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Tony Awards Predictions Categories

About the Tony Awards

The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.

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2023 Tony Predictions:Best Original Score