Strategy tips for the fantasy football playoffs: Time to chase a trophy
It’s time to do our yearly strategy check-in piece for the Fantasy Football playoffs. I recognize there’s an irony to this, we’re offering advice to the managers who might need it the least. You probably got here because you know what you’re doing. You’re organized, you’re detail oriented, you’re nuanced, you’re smart.
Okay, or maybe you just ran hot for three months and everyone in your league resents you. I suppose that’s possible, too.
Let me offer a few ideas and swing thoughts, which you are welcome to consider or discard. Listen to everyone you respect, measure plenty, cut once.
A switch from macro to micro
Although Fantasy Football is a weekly game, the early building-block moves generally have big-picture thoughts in mind. You’re trying to assemble a juggernaut, you’re angling to make the playoffs and ideally secure a bye, you’re trying to put up a crooked number. It’s early in the ballgame, let’s do some scoring.
Now we’re at the end of the game. Now is when the winning path is a lot more narrow, a lot more knowable, a lot more specific.
I rarely play the running-back insurance game early in the year. I want the explosive backup behind runners I do not roster; again, it’s a big-inning mindset. But this late in the year (I’d argue the switch moves around Halloween), I will play the insurance game with my own backs.
This is a little like bunting in baseball. It almost can’t be right in the early part of a ballgame. It’s often right in the late stages, when the next run wins.
I would rarely (close to never) roster two defenses in the early part of the year. They offer almost zero long-term upside and are mostly specialty plays. But now that we’re only looking at a short tournament, I’ll argue that multiple defenses on a roster makes some sense. Plus, we no longer need low-ceiling depth to get us through bye weeks. Ideally, we’re rolling out our greatest lineup every week; Jakobi Meyers types are far less valuable today.
Roster decisions can be more league-opponent specific
I know you’re working the wire weekly, trying to do things that make sense for your roster. But at this time of year, it’s also worthwhile to specifically grind what your opponent (and possible future opponent) might need. Perhaps you’ll want to add something strictly to block opponents from getting stuff they want.
This isn’t a primary concern for me in-season. I almost have blinders on for those September and October games, just trying to mind my own house and not sweat the opponent too much. I know if my decisions are solid and I have reasonable luck, I can get to where I need to go. But in December, you’re competing against fewer teams and playing some defense makes more sense.
When a matchup appears lopsided
This rule of thumb applies to just about any competitive endeavor: if you’re the heavy favorite, it probably makes sense to do prudent and conservative things. When you’re the underdog, you want to embrace volatility, invite entropy.
If my opponent has a much stronger roster than mine — I trust you can realistically appraise these things and be honest with yourself — I’ll try to find ways to give my team an uncomplicated chance at upside. Maybe that means going out of my way to link my quarterback with one of his receivers. Maybe that means I’ll be bold enough to play a defense against my opponent’s quarterback and hope I can get some turnover points while that quarterback is playing poorly. These are not moves to force — no one’s saying you roll the Texans DST against Patrick Mahomes this week. Common sense is always the most important fantasy tool in the box. But there are instances where it might apply.
[Week 15 Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Kickers]
A word about Friendliest Loss
Back in the 2000s sometime I coined the phrase Friendliest Loss, which is the idea that sometimes we make decisions not because we necessarily think they’re optimum, but rather because we can live with those decisions if they don’t work out. We’re afraid of doing something unorthodox and having it blow up in our face. This is where trite advice like Always Start Your Stars often comes into play.
Look, losing sucks for everyone. There’s no fun way to spin that. I’ll pound the table and say you should do whatever moves you think give you the best chance to win, and pay no mind to if those moves actually align with name-brand value or what you thought of the player before the season.
Maybe you think Brian Robinson will outscore a likely compromised Saquon Barkley this week. This would sound silly in August or September, and I’m sure Barkley managers will feel sick if they bench him and he has his best game in two months. But the goal isn’t to manage how your post-mortem pain will feel, the goal is to make the best decision possible. If that means you start a lesser-known or renowned player because you think he’s in a better spot, I support you.
Being afraid to make a mistake is the mistake.
I’ll close by revisiting the open — you got here for good reasons. You know what you’re doing. Most of your rules of thumb should apply to the next three weeks. Try to have some fun with it, appreciate the journey, not get clouded by the destination. Only one person wins your league. If you’re still one of the contenders, it’s already been a successful year.
One last piece of advice, daydream about your title. Imagine your favorite announcer describing 80-yard touchdowns for your skill players. Think practically, but think positively, too. Cultivate positive energy. Manage like a champion today. It’s a great day to be great.
