5 questions as Gov. Hochul delivers her third State of the State speech

The eyes of New York politics are set to settle on Albany on Tuesday as Gov. Kathy Hochul delivers her third State of the State speech, an annual address she uses to outline her policy agenda.

Hochul, a Buffalo Democrat, spent last week unveiling policy proposals that included enhanced paid leave for expectant mothers, expanded public pool access and an overhaul of state reading curriculum standards.

Now, she is set to lift the curtain on the rest of her 2024 ambitions. With the legislative session playing out ahead of November’s election, Hochul may be wary of plunging into any polarizing policy battles that could peeve suburban and upstate voters.

But New York also faces some formidable challenges: looming budget deficits, a worsening migrant crisis in the city and affordability anxieties that been inflamed by housing shortages.

She is expected to heavily focus her remarks on the cost of living in New York, where many residents have been frustrated by intense inflation in recent years, and some have fled the state.

Hochul kicked off last week by outlining a plan to wipe out some New Yorkers’ out-of-pocket insurance co-payments for insulin. She said all of her State of the State programs carry “one objective, to make New York safer, more affordable and more livable.”

Here are 5 things to watch in Tuesday’s speech.

What will she say about housing?

Last year’s budget negotiations were consumed by negotiations over a plan to compel more housing construction.

But in the end, after extensive delays, a grand housing plan was excised from the budget as Hochul and lawmakers failed to reach common ground.

Hochul, a moderate, had sought a plan to create 800,000 new homes in New York State, in part by forcing suburban municipalities to build housing stock. But she could not get the state Legislature on board.

Andrea Stewart-Cousins, the Westchester County Democrat who serves as the Senate’s majority leader, pushed to use incentives rather than mandates to create housing.

Lacking buy-in from most lawmakers, Hochul has been left to issue modest executive orders as the housing crisis worsens.

It is not clear whether she will center housing in her 2024 plans. Her office has suggested she will continue to focus on executive measures until a clear legislative path emerges. But any proposal she lays out Tuesday figures to draw significant interest.

“It’s certainly something that a lot of people will be watching,” said Evan Stavisky, a Democratic political consultant. “The need has not dissipated.”

Fewer than 1,700 affordable housing units were built in New York City in the first nine months of 2023, according to an analysis released by Metro IAF New York in the fall. And New York’s population shrank by an estimated 100,000 people between July 2022 and July 2023.

“I want more housing built,” Hochul said at a news conference late last month. “I’ll work with the Legislature — I’ll work with anyone.”

“Failure is not an option,” she added.

Will the migrant crisis figure into the speech?

It’s also unclear if Hochul will weigh in heavily on the downstate asylum seeker crisis.

For months, Hochul has been under pressure from Mayor Eric Adams to offer more state help for the city, and to require upstate municipalities to welcome some migrants.

Hochul has pledged about $2 billion to support the city’s migrant efforts in the current budget cycle, and she has suggested she will offer at least $1 billion in the next budget cycle.

Adams, a close political ally of Hochul, is scheduled to attend the speech for the second straight year.

After bruising battles over bail, where will public safety fit in?

Hochul, who took office at a time of rising anxiety about crime and then faced a law-and-order-focused challenge from a Republican in the 2022 election, likes to say that public safety is her top priority.

Some violent crime rates dropped sharply in New York last year, a trend that has also been felt nationally, but one that both Hochul and Adams have been happy to highlight.

Crime concerns never linger far from New Yorkers’ collective psyche, but with post-pandemic winds shifting, Hochul may have more political space to explore other issues facing the state.

Last year, a battle over bail reform was one of the top storylines of budget negotiations. The governor secured a deal with lawmakers to grant judges more discretion in setting bail. She said the move would make New Yorkers safer.

What about the budget deficit?

Hochul, who has close ties to the business community, has also cast herself as a responsible steward of the state budget.

The governor’s office has projected a $4 billion budget deficit for next year, a pressure that could broadly influence the scope of Hochul’s spending initiatives.

The speech could offer some glimpses into how Hochul plans to handle the challenge.

Will Hochul nod to lingering tension with the Legislature?

Compared with past New York governors, Hochul has not often been at loggerheads with lawmakers.

But there have been moments of tension between left-leaning legislators and the centrist governor. The Legislature’s rejection of one of Hochul’s nominees for the state’s top court last year was a particularly humbling moment for Hochul.

Tensions seem to rise to the surface again at the end of the year, when Hochul aggressively wielded her veto pen to turn back a flurry of proposals, including a closely watched effort to ban noncompete agreements statewide.

The bill’s Senate sponsor, Sean Ryan, issued a statement saying that he tried to compromise with the governor but his “common sense offer was rejected.”

A spokesman for Hochul, Anthony Hogrebe, said in a pre-Christmas statement that lawmakers had passed a “number of extreme legislative proposals that would have put public safety or the state’s economic recovery at risk.”

The address could offer Hochul an opportunity to reach out to lawmakers who felt burned at the end of the year.

Former Gov. David Paterson said that Hochul has shown an ability to work through differences with lawmakers and maintained especially strong relationships with the leaders of the Senate and Assembly.

“She has adroitly avoided confrontation with the legislative leaders,” Paterson said Monday. “She’s listened to them, and they’re kind of listening to her. And that could be very good for her.”