YouGov poll forecasts no Tory seats in Wales and swathes of northern England

Wales and two English regions could be left with no Conservative MPs come Friday, according to YouGov, with the Labour Party on course for a 431-seat landslide.

YouGov polled 47,751 adults in Great Britain between June 19 and July 2 before making the forecast, which suggests the Conservatives could win just 102 seats.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Justice Secretary Alex Chalk are among the prominent Tories set to lose their seats according to three MRP polls, which look at constituency-level results as well as the national picture.

More in Common has found counting will end with Labour on around 430 seats while Survation’s model – a survey of 34,558 respondents between June 15 and July 2 – suggests Labour’s tally could stretch to between 447 and 517.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had earlier rejected the suggestion of defeat and said he is “fighting hard for every vote”.

He told ITV’s This Morning: “We just saw some analysis which showed that just 130,000 people can make the difference in this election.

“So, everyone watching who thinks, ‘oh, this is all a foregone conclusion’, it’s not.”

His rival Sir Keir Starmer, on the campaign trail in Carmarthenshire, said: “I think the Tories have run a very negative campaign and they’re failing to answer the question of what positive change they bring for the country.”

Sir Keir Starmer speaks into a microphone in front of a crowd
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on the campaign trail (Andrew Milligan/PA)

The Labour leader accused Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride, who told ITV’s Good Morning Britain that a Labour majority is the one “very clear conclusion” in the General Election, of “voter suppression” and added the minister’s comment amounted to “trying to get people to stay at home rather than to go out and vote”.

Sir Keir said: “I say if you want change, you have to vote for it.

“I want people to be part of the change.”

In each model, the Liberal Democrats are set to take Godalming and Ash, Surrey, where Mr Hunt is standing, and Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, contested by Mr Chalk.

Jeremy Hunt in front of text: Labour's tax rises
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is forecast to lose his seat (Aaron Chown/PA)

Chichester in Sussex, contested by Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, is also unsafe, with YouGov and Survation suggesting the Liberal Democrats could win in the cathedral city constituency.

More in Common has listed Portsmouth North, contested by Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, as “too close to call”, with YouGov and Survation both hinting at Labour gains.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party is set to win in Welwyn Hatfield (contested by Mr Shapps), Monmouthshire (Welsh Secretary David TC Davies), Banbury (Attorney General Victoria Prentis) and Plymouth Moor View (Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer).

But Labour could face an upset in Islington North, where the party’s former leader Jeremy Corbyn has a 91% chance of winning as an independent candidate, according to More in Common.

Survation has suggested Labour will win the London seat, with YouGov listing it as a “tossup”, leaning towards Labour.

The three pollsters have suggested Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, will win in the Essex seaside constituency of Clacton.

Nigel Farage in front of a Ferris wheel
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in Clacton, Essex (Ian West/PA)

Survation has said Labour is likely to take Ashfield, Nottinghamshire, but More in Common and YouGov have tipped Reform UK to win with its candidate Lee Anderson, who won the seat in 2019 as a Conservative.

YouGov has listed Great Yarmouth as “lean Reform UK”, with Labour second in the Norfolk constituency, and the Tories third.

Each pollster has said Brighton Pavilion will remain with The Green Party, while YouGov has listed Bristol Central, which party co-leader Carla Denyer is contesting, as leaning Green.

Survation polling suggests West Worcestershire also leans Green in a tight race.

Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer speaks into a microphone
Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer is looking for victory in Bristol Central (Jonathan Brady/PA)

“The implied national vote shares are Labour 39%, Conservatives 22%, Reform UK 15%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Greens 7%, the SNP 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%,” YouGov analysts wrote.

“Even in a ‘best case scenario’, the result for the Conservatives is significantly worse than the party’s previous worst election result in 1906, when it won 156 seats.”

YouGov’s MRP seat projection shows Labour on 431 seats, with the Conservatives on 102, the Liberal Democrats on 72, the SNP on 18, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru on three each, and the Greens on two.

None of the Conservatives’ seats would be in Wales, the North East or the North West, if the MRP poll findings are realised.

At least 326 seats are required for a majority.