Why winning Florida's votes is crucial in the 2020 US election
November 3 has one certainty: the election in Florida will be exceptionally close.
Of the four states with the largest number of electoral votes, New York and California are an easy win for the Democrats, while Texas traditionally backs the Republican party.
Florida, with 29 votes, is the least predictable of them all, thanks to its geographic size, rapid population growth and sprawling diversity.
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America’s biggest swing state
Although the state is one of the most complicated regions in the United States, it can broadly be divided by north and south.
While its populous urban areas in the south vote blue, its northern stretch votes red. The middle, stretching between Orlando and Tampa, could go either way.
Often, the divide between the two is so tight it is hard to call - but it can be hugely important for the outcome of the election.
In 2000 the race between Al Gore and George W Bush was deadlocked. It all came down to Florida. Of almost six million votes cast in the state, the Republicans managed to edge out the Democrats by just 537 votes. The legacy of this election lives on today.
Florida has voted for the winner in all but two of the elections held since 1924, and every single one since 1996. In the six elections since 1996, three Democrats and three Republicans have been voted in by Floridians.
Read more: How does the US election work and what is the electoral college?
Why is this important?
Unless we see a repeat of 2000, with the vote exceptionally tight, we will have a strong idea of who has won the state on election night.
If it is clear which candidate took Florida, we will then be able to judge fairly accurately what to expect from the rest of the nation.
Florida will be one of the first states to be called by forecasters, unless the results are tight. All ballots must be received by the close of polls on the day of the election in order to be counted.
Election officials began counting early votes three weeks ago. The results of these will be announced as soon as in-person poll stations close, leaving only the day’s results to come.
Donald Trump’s ‘home’ state
The stakes are highest in Florida for Donald Trump. No Republican candidate since Calvin Coolidge, almost 100 years ago, has become president without winning Florida.
In 2016 Mr Trump managed to push Hillary Clinton out by two percentage points. This time Florida is even more crucial, as its 29 votes could be enough to compensate for the smaller states Joe Biden could gain.
Mr Trump is now a Floridian himself, having switched his residency to Palm Beach County in 2019. Yet the state is suffering badly amid the pandemic and the Trump administration has become a scapegoat.
Almost 100,000 small businesses have been closed since March, boarded hotels are a common sight and a total of 3.5 million Floridians filed for unemployment benefits between March and August.
Read more: Donald Trump's gains with Hispanic voters in Florida rattle Democrats
What about Joe Biden?
Mr Biden’s hardline approach to the pandemic, message of public health and economic support could win him vital support.
He has carefully curated his approach to the older voters of the state, leading Mr Trump among those aged 65 or older, a group the latter carried in 2016.
"You're expendable, you're forgettable, you're virtually nobody. That's how he sees seniors. That's how he sees you," Mr Biden told a group of seniors at a community centre, referring to Mr Trump’s handling of coronavirus.
The Democratic nominee has more than a 95 per cent chance of winning the election if he wins Florida, according to modeling FiveThirtyEight and Jack Kersting. If he does not, the chances fall to 40 per cent.
Read more: Florida pensioners ride golf buggies into final battle to dislodge Trump
A close race ahead
The fate of Florida could mean we wait days to find out the overall winner. It will come down to the Great Lake states, but these results may not be known for days because of their rules around mail-in voting.
But recent data suggests this may never happen. Currently, Mr Biden holds a slim lead over the president.
An NBC News poll released on Thursday showed Mr Biden has the backing of 51 per cent of Florida voters, while Mr Trump has just 47 per cent.
This is within the survey’s margin or error however, so the state’s fate remains to be seen.
