Why Boris Johnson is walking a tightrope as he plots a route through the Covid crisis

In declaring his refusal "to listen to those who say let the virus rip, nor to those who urge a permanent lockdown", Boris Johnson on Tuesday laid bare the Covid-19 conflict splitting the country in two.

Yet the stark demarcation also characterises the Cabinet divide as the Government continues to grapple with the "lives versus livelihoods" debate.

The Prime Minister's ongoing desire to keep both factions happy was plain to see as he announced only limited new measures to tackle the spike in coronavirus cases.

Having pitch-rolled the "nuclear" option of a two-week "circuit break", Mr Johnson stopped short of a second lockdown and instead opted for a 10pm curfew and a tightening of the "rule of six".

Coming a day after Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance had laid the groundwork for a doomsday scenario of 50,000 cases a day by mid-October (see graphic below), the PM's Commons statement marked a significant climbdown after the worst-case scenario briefing wiped £50 billion off UK stocks.

Prof Whitty, the chief medical officer, had spoken of the need to "break unnecessary links between households", but in the end there was no ban on families visiting other households – for now, at least.

Little wonder, then, that Mr Johnson "fervently" hopes that he will not have to "deploy greater firepower, with significantly greater restrictions", in the coming weeks.

For whatever decisions he takes next, he knows he faces a backlash either from those who think he has gone too far or those who think he has not gone far enough – hence the need to constantly occupy the middle ground.

With Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers, leading the revolt against the "authoritarian" plans, and veteran MPs such as Pauline Latham questioning whether we live in a "democracy, not a dictatorship", Mr Johnson once again finds himself having to run the gauntlet between rival Tory tribes. And it is the same with his Cabinet.

Having spent the last few days locked in meetings with senior ministers and the Government's top scientists, he is all too familiar with the hawk to dove ratio of the Covid sub-committees taking all the major decisions on No 10's pandemic response.

Mr Johnson chairs the Covid-19 strategy committee, whose members include Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, and Alok Sharma, the Business Secretary.

Michael Gove chairs the Covid-19 operations committee, comprising Mr Sunak and Mr Hancock, with other ministers invited according to the agenda.

According to insiders, discussions in recent days even went so far as considering closing down all non-essential retail and stopping household mixing altogether. Yet, amid outcry from the hawks, a compromise was reached.

"In line with Matt, Michael is the most pro-lockdown and Rishi is probably the most anti," said one source. "Priti and Alok are aligned with Rishi, and Dominic seems to be sitting on the fence."

As the major players on the sub-committees, it is the views of these key ministers, rather than the wider Cabinet, that count. "The rest of the Cabinet are just rubber-stampers," added the insider.

Yet frustrations have been growing over the availability of data to sub-committee members in recent days.

According to one source, ministers took part in a lengthy "ops" meeting on Thursday, only to be given the "doomsday" slides which featured in Prof Whitty and Sir Patrick's Monday press conference (watch the briefing in the video below) at the last minute.

"Oliver [Dowden, the Culture Secretary] presented a paper for the trials that would see two or three thousand spectators return to football stadia, only to be told: 'There's no way we can do that'", claimed a source.

"It was only after an hour and a half of discussions that they were shown the 50,000 figure. Really, you'd want to be given that sort of information the day before such a meeting – not at the end of it."

Naturally, the finger of suspicion is once again being pointed in the direction of Dominic Cummings, the PM's chief adviser and a close ally of Mr Gove. "There's a suspicion that data is being held back so that ministers can be bounced into decisions. It's got Dom written all over it," added the source.

Another flashpoint emerged when Mr Gove was allegedly "p***ed off" that Mr Sunak had not released extra funding to councils to train their own staff to issue fixed penalty fines to venues flouting the coronavirus rules.

"Michael wanted more enforcement done at local authority level by council workers who are already out on patrol in town and city centres," the source said. "But it couldn't happen because Rishi didn't release the cash. I think he thought it contradicted the 'Eat Out To Help Out' message to have council officers slapping fines on the venues the Treasury was trying to keep afloat."

Although supportive of the latest measures, Mr Sharma is understood to have repeatedly made the case for the hospitality industry in recent meetings, while Ms Patel "shares his worries about the economy".

Allies of the Business Secretary insist he was "only doing his job" in standing up for the sector in arguing against a curfew, insisting he also understood the need to "nip the virus in the bud" to avoid a more economically calamitous second lockdown later on.

While the Home Secretary remains pro-enforcement, she is understood to be coming under mounting pressure from police forces pointing out that officers face the double whammy of policing the Covid rules while also dealing with a crime rate that is back to pre-pandemic levels.

"I think Priti is also worried about hidden crimes like domestic abuse and child sexual abuse once again flourishing under tighter restrictions," said an ally.

Like the rest of the country, ministers are hoping Thursday's launch of the new NHS tracing app will help avoid further curbs on people's civil liberties.

Covering England and Wales, the app – which has been trialled on the Isle of Wight and in the London borough of Newham since August after an initial build was scrapped – sends a bluetooth signal to those who have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for coronavirus.

Having declared to the nation that the virus will be "a fact of our lives" for the next six months, the professorial prediction on which Mr Johnson is banking is the one about science eventually riding to Britain's rescue.