Weather conditions ‘may influence song’s success in UK music charts’, research finds

Don't like the songs in the charts this week? Blame it on the weather.

Weather conditions, as well as seasonal patterns, can play a role in shaping a listener's song preferences, which in turn, may have a direct impact on its success in the UK music charts, new research has found.

Scientists at the University of Oxford found that dance songs that evoked positive emotions of joy and happiness performed better in the charts when the weather was warm and sunny, when compared with cold and rainy months.

They also found that popular songs had a stronger association with the weather, compared with less popular ones.

The researchers said their findings, published in the Royal Society Open Science journal, challenge the view that success in the music industry is solely based on the quality of the music.

“Our study suggests that favourable environmental conditions, such as warm and sunny weather, induce positive emotional states in listeners, which in turn, leads them to choose to listen to energetic and positive music, potentially to match their current mood,” explained Dr Manuel Anglada-Tort, a lecturer in the Faculty of Music and head of the Music, Culture, and Cognition Lab at Oxford University.

“Thus, it highlights the importance of considering broad environmental factors when analysing the success of songs in the music market, and provides insight into how music choices are influenced by external factors beyond the music itself.”

Ed Sheeran and Adele (Getty Images)
Ed Sheeran and Adele (Getty Images)

Dr Anglada-Tort and his colleagues analysed more than 23,000 songs that reached the weekly charts in the UK in the last 70 years, gathering historical data from the national weather service’s Met Office as well as a compilation of music records from Official Charts.

They measured three different weather conditions: daily temperature, daily hours of sunshine, and days of rain.

“The UK presents a compelling case study to investigate the impact of weather on behaviour due to its well-known climate patterns, with lots of rain and notable changes in weather,” Dr Anglada-Tort said.

Using machine learning techniques, the researchers were able to determine each song's musical features such as melody, harmony, rhythm, timbre, dynamics, and tempo.

The team found that songs which were energetic, danceable, and evoked positive emotions – such as Sean Paul’s 2005 song “Temperature” – performed better during warm and sunny weather when compared with rainy and cold months.

They also found that hyper-popular songs in the top 10 of the charts showed the strongest associations with weather fluctuations.

Meanwhile, songs that were of low intensity and had negative emotions of sadness – such as “Never Gonna Fall In Love Again” by Dana (1976) – did not appear to be influenced by the weather.

“This suggests that negative emotional states may be more influenced by individual situational factors rather than general environmental conditions,” Dr Anglada-Tort said.

The researchers said their work only shows a link between music success in the charts and the weather conditions so the results must be interpreted with caution.

Dr Anglada-Tort said: “Using our methods, we cannot establish any causal effect between weather and music preferences.

“Moreover, alternative explanations may account for our results, such as the role of industry gatekeepers or recommender systems that decide which music is available to consumers.”

Additional reporting from Press Association