US election and its impact on the global fight against climate change
Few would dispute that the United States remains the world’s leading economy. We saw how closely the US interest rate decisions were monitored globally. Movements in the Federal Reserve’s policies have a significant influence on global business directions.
The impact on world currencies is inevitable. The recent decline in the ringgit's value has been largely attributed to US interest rate changes.
Economists understand this, but as usual, politicians distort the reasoning for political gain. The general public, particularly those with a limited grasp of global finance dynamics (and there are many), often become unnecessarily agitated. Instances of such economic illiteracy influencing elections have been common worldwide. For example, the spread of misinformation about the Goods and Services Tax (GST) during the lead-up to GE15.
As the leading world power, the US influences more than just the global economy; it is also central to the global fight against climate change.
Some attribute the slow progress of decisions at COP meetings to a lack of US support. This was evident at COP 28 in Dubai when climate activists’ push to phase out fossil fuels was opposed.
Friends of Sustainable Malaysia is hosting a conversation on Sept 20 to discuss the upcoming COP 29 in Azerbaijan. Meena Raman of the Third World Network will share her insights on civil society groups’ expectations for COP 29.
Many still recall the US’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement during Donald Trump's presidency, which coincided with drastic cuts to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding.
This reduction in funding extended to climate research. The failure to fulfil promised funding for climate action can also be traced back to the US.
This is why the US Presidential election in November matters globally – it can significantly influence the fight against climate change.
The US, one of the world’s largest economies and greenhouse gas emitters, has policies on energy, the environment, and climate change with far-reaching implications. Different administrations approach climate policy in markedly different ways.
The Obama administration supported the Paris Agreement, while the Trump administration withdrew from it. The Biden administration rejoined the agreement and prioritised climate action, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050.
US leadership, or its absence, on climate issues can shape international efforts. When the US commits to ambitious climate goals, other countries often follow suit.
Conversely, if the US retreats, it can undermine global climate initiatives. Congressional elections are also influential. A Congress with a climate action majority is more likely to pass laws funding renewable energy, regulating emissions, and supporting green technologies.
Inversely, a Congress resistant to these efforts can hinder progress. US elections also influence economic policies that affect climate change. Policies promoting renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency can drive innovation and reduce emissions. On the other hand, policies supporting fossil fuels or deregulating industries can increase carbon emissions.
The fight against climate change is heavily influenced by the US political landscape, making its elections crucial in determining the direction of climate policy both domestically and internationally.
It is often said that when China sneezes, the world catches a cold. But when the US coughs, the global temperature rise may exceed the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement, edging the world closer to a climate crisis.
Malaysia, as a small economy contributing only about 0.6 per cent to global emissions, would nonetheless suffer significant economic repercussions from a global climate crisis.
This is why civil society groups are calling for greater adaptation efforts within the country. These include research into more climate-resilient agriculture, disaster-proof housing designs, and technologies to reduce water and air pollution.
The outcome of COP 29 is not expected to differ significantly from Dubai. The US’s decisions remain crucial.
Professor Datuk Dr Ahmad Ibrahim is affiliated with the Tan Sri Omar Centre for STI Policy at UCSI University and is an associate fellow at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies, Universiti Malaya.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Twentytwo13.
Main images: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's Facebook pages.
