Umno has options to Zahid, but none popular enough to unseat him, analysts say

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 20 — Umno has leaders capable of taking over from party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi who is under pressure to resign, but none is likely to replace him if he is unwilling to step down, according to analysts.

Several told Malay Mail Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan was a natural option as he is already Zahid’s deputy and popular in the party. Mohamad, or better known as Tok Mat, had also been one of three contenders for the Umno presidency after Datuk Seri Najib Razak stepped down following the party’s defeat during the 2018 general election.

In the state elections last week, Perikatan Nasional (PN) showed that its so-called “green wave” — the surge in Malay-Muslim conservatism as championed by the coalition — could take seats from its political rivals. From the total of 245 seats available for both PN and the Pakatan Harapan (PH)-BN coalitions, the former managed to win 146 seats across six states.

Most came at the expense of Umno, the sole Barisan Nasional component to take part in the polls, leading to calls for Zahid to resign.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said Tok Mat or Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani were credible options to replace Zahid, especially as neither has active criminal cases taking place against them.

“But they are not strong leaders, in a sense, so whether they can bring Umno together is also another question,” said Oh when contacted.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said Tok Mat or Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani (pic) were credible options to replace Zahid, especially as neither has active criminal cases taking place against them. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa

“Zahid has lots of support from the divisional members and leaders; they like him so it’ll be very hard to unseat him.”

Asked about others such as the currently suspended Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein or the sacked Khairy Jamaluddin, Oh felt the two former ministers did not have much chance at taking control of the party.

The analyst said Hishammuddin was also another high-profile leader who did not have strong support within the party, making it unlikely for him to be a president who could pull the party together.

“The only way Khairy can come back into Umno is if someone brings him in, someone needs to welcome him back into the party, someone with prominence or else he cannot just come back into the fold just like that,” he added.

Associate professor at the School of Social Sciences in Universiti Sains Malaysia Azmil Tayeb said Tok Mat would be a good interim option until Umno could unearth or develop a leader to take the party in the right direction.

“While Tok Mat is a veteran, his leadership can still offer a fresh start while being guided by a steady hand. He can initiate a process to rescind those who were suspended recently. He can start promoting young, innovative, and capable leaders and reduce the influence of warlords in the party. He can reform the party by allowing rank and file members to choose the leaders, instead of the division leaders to reduce money politics,” Azmil told Malay Mail.

“Tok Mat can start by acting courageous, especially since he had won his seat by a very comfortable margin. He does things that Zahid has refused to do all this while.”

In the Negeri Sembilan state election, Mohamad won in Rantau with a total of 16,957 votes against Perikatan Nasional’s Rozmal Malakan’s 6,677 votes.

Divisions within Umno are not uncommon. During the party’s general assembly in June, Muhamad Akmal Saleh, the newly-elected Umno Youth chief, asked the DAP to apologise for all the accusations it made against his party.

In a fiery policy speech delivered before hundreds of delegates at the Tun Razak Hall in World Trade Centre, Akmal said that the Pakatan Harapan component should prove its sincerity about working with Umno by first admitting that it had made irresponsible allegations against it.

Zahid quickly dismissed the need for DAP to apologise while Tok Mat reportedly backed Umno Youth’s controversial demand for enemy-turned-ally DAP to apologise to the party for its past attacks on them.

Yesterday, former prime minister and former Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob also said the party needed a new, dynamic leadership to prevent it from becoming dependent on non-Malay voters for survival.

Umno Youth Chief Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh speaks during the party’s 2023 general assembly at the World Trade Centre in Kuala Lumpur June 8, 2023. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa

After the January purge that cleared out many members of the old guard, the analysts identified party leaders such as Akmal, Umno secretary-general Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki, information chief Shahril Sufian Hamdan and Paya Besar MP Datuk Shahar Abdullah as ones who could rise to fill the void.

Yet not everyone felt that Umno should be so eager to push out Zahid over the latest election defeats, with Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) senior fellow Azmi Hassan saying all party leaders must share some fault.

“The blame shouldn’t be squarely placed on his (Zahid’s) lap. Changing the president at this juncture does nothing as we all know the Malay voters have had a change of heart,” he told Malay Mail.

Azmi said that the Pakatan Harapan supporters found it hard to vote for the BN candidate and vice versa. Coupled with the low voter turnout, he said Umno’s underperformance was understandable.

“The prime minister is from PH and DAP is from PH, so, that’s why Umno looks weak at the federal level.

“By changing the president to Tok Mat or Hishamuddin, (it) won’t do anything unless the president withdraws support towards Anwar Ibrahim, meaning they won’t be part of the federal government, which is a detriment to them and the political scenario at the national level.

“I’m sure most of the Umno leaders don’t want this to happen, so, changing Zahid is not the answer. Those who are calling for a change are trying to give the perception that they are doing something, but it’s not right,” he added.

Research fellow from the Institute of Malaysian & International Studies at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Muhamad Azwan Abd Rahman added that some Umno factions could not accept the reality that the party could share ideals with DAP, such as upholding the Rukun Negara and Federal Constitution, even if the two have different ideologies.

“From a strategic standpoint, the pressure mounted in the aftermath of state elections seems to yield little value as analysts had predicted a similar outcome beforehand. Therefore, Umno, together with its present coalition, should exploit this advantage by garnering support through effective governance.

“Grassroots members advocating for Zahid’s resignation risk placing Umno in a position of diminished political credibility vis-à-vis their opponents,” he said.