Ukraine will struggle to categorize air raid alerts by threat level, experts say

People hide in the subway during a Russian missile attack
People hide in the subway during a Russian missile attack

Air raid alerts associated with takeoffs of Russian MiGs can last up to 3-4 hours, several times a day, adversely affecting the Ukrainian economy, businesses, and schools. The idea of categorizing the alerts and dividing them by threat level (orange, yellow, red) is gaining popularity.

NV asked military experts if it is reasonable and possible to introduce such a grading system. In their opinion, the answer is no.

"People have relaxed to some extent"

There is no rational mechanism for assessing the threat, founder of the NGO Reactive Mail and military expert Pavlo Narochny said. He’s doubtful that the Ukrainian Air Force can effectively assess the likelihood of an impending Russian air strike once Moscow gets its jets airborne.

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Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network Mikhaylo Samus agrees. The level of danger can also change over time, which can lead to chaos and deadly consequences.

"People, to some extent, have relaxed, that is, they believe that they can assess the risk of a missile, artillery, or other strike themselves,” Narochny said. “And this is fundamentally wrong.”

‘A Smart Approach’

Experts agree that prolonged air alarms paralyze the country. Instead of grading alarms, Samus believes that it is necessary to organize public transit in such a way that passengers are disembarked close to the nearest shelters and provided with directions to get there.

"I think the Russians will arrange air alarms literally around the clock. We need to somehow prepare for this and use more of a smart approach,” Samus said.

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Narochny considers it unfair that the entire country stops during an alarm. "The fact that the economy of Ukraine completely stops when the risk of an attack is relatively small, is somewhat wrong. The question is whether our Air Force is able to somehow assess the likelihood of an attack.”

A system of alarm gradations is logical, but its introduction depends on whether the military can assess the likelihood of Russian attacks. Narochny doubts that it will be possible to predict with high probability whether the likelihood of an attack is 5% or 90%.

Read also: Four air raid alerts in 24 hours due to Russian MiG-31K takeoffs, says air force

Samus believes that there is no need to "play traffic lights." Instead, it is necessary to strengthen missile defense and air defense systems, which will guarantee a high level of protection against ballistic missiles.

He noted that Russian Kinzhal aero ballistic missiles can be shot down only by Patriot or SAMP-T anti-air systems, of which Ukraine has but a few.

It is also necessary to destroy Russian war planes capable of launching Kinzhals. Ukraine is aware of enemy airfields where they are based. Strikes should be carried out on these airfields using long-range weapons, Samus added.

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine