If Ukraine collapses, millions of refugees will flee to Europe, according to German government's worst-case scenario


Berlin warns that Europe could see an influx of 10 million more Ukrainian refugees if Russia wins the war, Welt am Sonntag reported on Feb. 10, citing security officials and informed parliamentarians.

The German government believes that, in the worst-case scenario, the vast majority of refugees will head to Western Europe, with Germany as one of the main destinations.

Read also: Republicans block aid bill for Ukraine in first Senate vote

The lack of military assistance from the United States is identified as one of the main challenges, but Berlin thinks that Kyiv will be able to hold the front line until the end of 2024.

The German Interior Ministry refused to make any predictions about the possible migration situation.

Europe has more responsibility for Ukraine than ever. Countries that support Kyiv should significantly increase military aid in the face of U.S. indecision, said Roderich Kiesewetter, a foreign policy expert with the Christian Democratic Union.

Read also: German officials alarmed by US Senate's block on Ukraine aid amid Trump re-election concerns

"If we do not change our support strategy, the worst-case scenario of a massive exodus from Ukraine and the spread of the war to NATO countries will become much more likely,” Kiesewetter said.

“In this case, ten million refugees is a rather small number.”

He added that, if the EU does not want the number of refugees to increase, it must help Ukraine now.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than six million people have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale Russian aggression. In addition, there are millions of internally displaced Ukrainians. According to the German Interior Ministry, there are currently 1.1 million Ukrainian citizens in Germany.

Ukraine is currently struggling on several levels. On the front line, it faces a shortage of soldiers and artillery ammunition, which has allowed the Russian army to seize the initiative. In terms of foreign policy, the problem is the lack of support from the United States.

The European Union (EU) is set to provide Ukraine with more than one million artillery shells by the end of 2024, EU High Representative/Vice-President (HR/VP) Josep Borrell said during his press briefing in Kyiv on Feb. 7.

Earlier, on Jan. 31, Borrell said that by March, the EU would fulfill only 52% of its pledge to provide Ukraine with one million artillery shells in one year.

Read also: EU Foreign Affairs official says Europeans must better understand Russian threat

Ukraine's military is dramatically outmatched by Russia in terms of available artillery ammunition, and this deficit is growing deeper every day, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in a letter to his EU counterparts, reported by Bloomberg on Jan. 31.

Umerov appealed to the EU to deliver the promised one million artillery shells so that Ukraine could at least match Russia's firepower.

The letter also states that Ukraine needs 200,000 155mm shells per month. Meanwhile, Moscow can receive almost twice as many munitions, with about one million shells having arrived in Russia from North Korea.

On Dec. 6, the bill funding aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan for approximately $106 billion failed procedural voting in the US Senate due to Republican demands for stricter immigration policies. They sought to strengthen the border with Mexico and only consider it in connection with aid to Ukraine and Israel.

On Jan. 25, the Financial Times reported that Republicans, influenced by Trump, who demands the party reject a compromise on immigration, are succumbing.

On Jan. 31, in his first official address as Speaker, Johnson stated that the Senate agreement under discussion is not sufficient to prevent migrants from Mexico entering the US. He had previously hinted that he would not unblock aid to Ukraine, calling the Senate agreement “absolutely dead.”

The U.S. Senate has voted to begin debate on a bill that would allocate about $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, The Hill reported on Feb. 9.

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