With less than three weeks to go until the Nov. 3 vote, and President Donald Trump trailing his opponent Joe Biden nationally and in several battleground states, Trump's campaign is counting on a surge of last-minute votes to reverse the tide and give him a second term.
But the wave of late-deciding voters that propelled Trump to a shocking election victory four years ago, is unlikely to rescue him again.
That's according to new Reuters/Ipsos polling, which shows there are far fewer undecided voters this year, and they are just as likely to pick Biden as they are Trump.
The polling also shows Biden holding a 10-percentage-point lead nationally, but a tighter margin in the battleground states that will help to decide the election.
Compounding Trump’s challenge has been a record rush of early voting that far outpaces the rate in 2016.
The U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida reported that more than 17 million Americans have already voted, either in person or by mail, compared with less than a million and a half early votes by this time four years ago.
The Reuters/Ipsos national poll found that only about 8% of likely voters appear to be undecided in the 2020 election. At this stage four years ago, more than twice as many people were undecided.
Based on the polling, Trump not only needs to convert more undecided voters to his side, but persuade some Biden supporters to come back to him. Trump's campaign schedule and rhetoric, however, suggest he's more concerned with mobilizing his conservative base.
This week, Trump visited regions where his support is likely to be stronger, like Iowa.
On Thursday, Trump held a rally in Greenville, North Carolina and will travel to Georgia on Friday.