Trading to Aid Morgan Stanley's (MS) Q4 Earnings, IB to Hurt

Zacks Equity Research
·6-min read

Morgan Stanley’s MS trading business (constituting a significant portion of its top line) is expected to have been a bright spot in the fourth quarter of 2022. Hence, the company’s fourth-quarter results, scheduled to be announced on Jan 17 before the opening bell, are expected to reflect the benefits of robust trading performance.

Like the first three quarters of 2022, market volatility and client activity were robust in the fourth quarter. Several factors, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and continued supply-chain disruptions, led to ambiguity among investors. Also, the ultra-aggressive stance of the central banks across the globe to control inflation and ensuing fears of an economic slowdown/recession drove client activity and trading volumes.

These resulted in heightened volatility in the equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. So, Morgan Stanley is likely to have recorded an improvement in trading revenues this time.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter equity trading revenues is pegged at $2.08 billion. The figure suggests a decline of 27.1% from the previous-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate for fixed-income trading revenues of $1.47 billion indicates a year-over-year increase of 19.5%. Our estimates for equity trading revenues and fixed-income trading revenues are $2.16 billion and $1.52 billion, respectively.

Other Factors to Influence Q4 Results

Net Interest Income (NII): Lending activities continued at a solid pace in the to-be-reported quarter. Per the Fed’s latest data, there was a slight moderation in wholesale and consumer lending in the quarter, with real estate loans holding ground. These are likely to have driven decent loan growth for Morgan Stanley.

The Federal Reserve continued with its ultra-hawkish monetary policy stance, raising interest rates by another 125 basis points in the quarter. Thus, the policy rate reached 4.25-4.50%, the highest in the past 15 years. This is likely to have had a favorable impact on Morgan Stanley’s net interest margin (NIM) and NII. Yet, the inversion of the yield curve in the December-end quarter is expected to have weighed on NIM to some extent.

The consensus estimate for NII is pegged at $2.5 billion, suggesting an increase of 19.8% on a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for NII is $2.52 billion, indicating a rise of 20.4%.

Investment Banking (IB) Income: Similar to the first three quarters of 2022, global deal-making continued to shrink in the fourth quarter. A host of factors like geopolitical tensions, sky-high inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a global recession acted as headwinds for M&As. Thus, both deal volume and total value numbers crashed during the fourth quarter.

While Morgan Stanley’s position as one of the leading players in the space is likely to have provided some leverage, overall growth in advisory fees is expected to have been weak in the quarter. The consensus estimate for advisory fees is pegged at $608 million, suggesting a plunge of 43.2% on a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for the same stands at $618.5 million, suggesting a decline of 42.3%.

For similar reasons, IPOs and follow-up equity issuances dried up in the to-be-reported quarter. Bond issuance volumes witnessed a decline too. Hence, Morgan Stanley’s underwriting fees are expected to have been hurt in the quarter under review.

The consensus estimate for fixed-income underwriting fees is pegged at $340 million, suggesting a fall of 33.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity underwriting fees of $241 million indicates a plunge of 71.7%. Thus, the consensus estimate for total underwriting fees of $582 million implies a decrease of 57.3%.

Our estimate for fixed-income underwriting fees is $307.7 million, while that for equity underwriting fees is $275.8 million.

Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for IB income of $1.19 billion indicates a decline of 50.9%. Our estimate for IB income is $1.2 billion, implying a plunge of 50.6%.

Expenses: Cost reduction, which has long been the main strategy of Morgan Stanley to remain profitable, is unlikely to have been a major support in the October-December quarter. As the company continues to invest in franchise, overall costs are anticipated to have flared up.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

According to our proven model, the chances of Morgan Stanley beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings this time around are low. This is because it doesn’t have the right combination of the two key ingredients — positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Morgan Stanley is -0.72%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Morgan Stanley Price and EPS Surprise

Morgan Stanley Price and EPS Surprise
Morgan Stanley Price and EPS Surprise

Morgan Stanley price-eps-surprise | Morgan Stanley Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved 2.3% lower to $1.25 over the past seven days. The estimate suggests a 39.9% decline from the year-ago reported number. Our estimate for earnings is $1.30 per share.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $12.16 billion, which indicates a year-over-year fall of 16.3%. Our estimate for total revenues is $11.69 billion.

Banks to Consider

Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

The Earnings ESP for Goldman Sachs GS is +1.23% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3, at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results on Jan 17.

Over the past seven days, GS’ Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has moved 4.2% lower.

Citizens Financial Group CFG is also scheduled to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 earnings on Jan 17. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +0.45%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

CFG’s quarterly earnings estimates have remained unchanged over the past week.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Morgan Stanley (MS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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