TNF Preview: Packers at Cardinals showdown
Minty Bets gets you set for the massive NFC showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals. Will the Cards cover the 6.5 points? New BetMGM customers who bet $1 on ANY game will receive $100 in free bets added to their account. You don’t need to win your bet to receive the promotion. Must be 21+ in AZ, CO, IN, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/YAHOOSPECIAL to get started or use promo code SPORTSBOOK when making your first deposit.
Video transcript
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MINTY BETS: Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It's October 28, 2021, and I'm your betting guide, Minty Bets, here to preview the massive NFC tilt between the Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are 6 and 1/2 point favorites and the total is 50 and 1/2. I love this match-up and, at first glance, it's going to be a tough one to pick because these are two excellent teams. The Cardinals are rolling being the only undefeated team straight up left, and they're 6 and 1 against the spread, including covering a massive 20 point spread last week against Houston. Their offense is stacked and Kyler Murray can do it all. But, Green Bay is also 6 and 1 against the spread, and straight up, and they are 7 and 2 on Thursday Night Football.
However, the Packers have Davante Adams, their defensive coordinator Joe Barry, and possibly MVS out for this game. Both of these teams are coming off a short week and the line actually opened as Arizona minus 3 and 1/2, but after all this injury news in Green Bay, the line is now Cardinals minus 6 and 1/2. And I don't agree with this line move at all. You're telling me, a wide receiver-- granted, one of the best ones in the league-- and a member of the coaching staff is warranted for a big three point move? This, to me, is an overreaction.
Here's how I see this game going. Aaron Rodgers is going to have to utilize one of the league's best running backs in Aaron Jones, as the Cardinals defense is allowing 5 yards per carry, which is second to last in the NFL. For Arizona to win and cover the spread, they'll need to be up by two scores or more against the Packers. Because if you give Rodgers the ball with, what? Two minutes? Even one minute left on the clock? He's just like Tom Brady and can do some damage.
My money is going to be on Green Bay plus 6 and 1/2, and I also like them to hand Arizona their very first loss of the season. So I'll be betting, on the moneyline, at plus 225. The public will be all over Arizona, not only because of their record, but because of all the key injuries in Green Bay. And they'll probably move that line to plus 7 or so by kickoff. So if you see something higher than plus 6 and 1/2, and you want the Packers too? Take it.
Onto the total. It's set at 50 and 1/2. Now the Packers and the Cards have pretty weak run-stop units, but the difference in defense here, is that Arizona possesses a fierce passing defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete about 6 and 1/2 yards per attempt and only 63% of their passes. But, have the Cardinals faced a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers yet? The Cardinals have faced starters like Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins. Pretty good, but definitely not comparable to Rodgers. Arizona is in for a rude awakening this week. I like this game to be a shootout, so I'm on the over and it seems like a lot of people are on the under as the total has moved down from its opening number.
On to the fun stuff! Props. I'm going to start with, Aaron Rodgers. His passing yards is set at 253 and 1/2, and I'm going over. I know his main target, Davante Adams, is out and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is more of a game-time decision, but in the last two games that Davante Adams missed last season, Rodgers threw for 283 yards one week, and 327 yards in the next. Seven touchdowns combined. Aaron Rodgers is going to utilize the ground game more tonight but he can really air it out to anyone, as well, as he has more than several capable receivers downfield.
Next, another Aaron. Aaron Jones. His rushing yards is set at 60 and 1/2. Every week, his numbers have been really inconsistent, but I mentioned earlier, I'm expecting a lot of production from him this week. Not only because of the Adams news, but because the Packers can, and will, take advantage of this faulty Arizona run defense. So, over on Aaron Jones' rushing yards.
Last up, Christian Kirk. His receiving yards is set at 42 and 1/2, and he's exceeded this number in all but two games this season. He should be Kyler's go-to guy since Hopkins had a hamstring issue last week and I don't believe he'll be at 100%. Not saying they both won't get a lot of touches, but Kirk's yardage is set oddly low, so I'll gladly take the over.
Just to recap, I have the Packers plus 6 and 1/2 or better. Packers on the moneyline plus 225 over 50 and 1/2. Aaron Rodgers over 253 and 1/2 passing yards. Aaron Jones over 60 and 1/2 rushing yards. Christian Kirk over 42 and 1/2 receiving yards.
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