Third search for MH370: Is this the best bet of solving this decade-old mystery?

The search for MH370 has been announced by the Malaysian Government, in agreement with Ocean Infinity.

The effort is to begin between January and March 2025, during the Southern Hemisphere’s summer period. The basis of the offer is “No Find, No Pay”. The fee payable is US$70 million or, at today’s rate, RM315 million.

It is unclear if finding the wreckage includes the recovery of the two data containers, namely the Flight Data Recorder and the Cockpit Voice Recorder.

Finding the wreckage will only confirm that the aircraft met its end in the Southern Indian Ocean. It will also shed light on whether the flight ditched under some form of human control, or if the aircraft crashed in an uncontrollable manner.

It will not shed light on why it happened, or if there is any criminal element behind the cause. Only the recovery of data in the ‘black boxes’ will provide clues to the exact cause.

The popular conspiracy theories involving Diego Garcia, an alternate landing in Kazakhstan, involvement of sensitive patents, and even black holes or UFOs can be easily disposed of into the scrapheap of myths or movie scripts.

The offer from Ocean Infinity surfaced more than two years ago, which coincided with the publishing, and peer-reviewed research work of retired aerospace engineer and MH370 sleuth Richard Godfrey, which was further analysed and accepted by voluntary experts from all over the world. Of notable interest is that this group of experts is not in any way motivated by politics or financial gain. They, in my assumption, have a passion for using science to solve the unsolvable.

Clearly, in my opinion, the findings give Ocean Infinity – a company deeply involved in undersea discoveries – sufficient confidence to offer a “No Find, No Pay” commercial arrangement to the main stakeholder, the Malaysian Government.

With the US$70 million (RM315 million) finders’ fee, the issue of spending that amount on the search will most likely spark intense public debate, who could argue that the money could be better spent on improving healthcare or other projects benefitting the Malaysian public.

It is unclear if the US$70 million fee also includes the recovery of key components from the wreckage.

There are also other stakeholders, mainly China and Australia, as a number of their citizens were lost. Another is the United States, with Boeing being the planemaker. Will they be part of any cost-sharing arrangement, or will Malaysia be the only stakeholder to pay Ocean Infinity? Based on available media reports, there was no mention of consultation with China and Australia.

When Godfrey published his theory in late 2021, it was picked up by many interested parties, me included. It was the only theory that made sense, published openly with no element of secrecy, nor was it glamorised. More importantly, it was science-based.

Although it was peer-reviewed, analysed, and refined by others, there was no indication of serious interest by Malaysia, as reported by the media.

The data tracks the path of MH370 from the point of departure until its unfortunate end, and it coincides with the Inmarsat arc crossings at points of intersection. Tracking of other aircraft was also used to verify the veracity of the methodology employed in obtaining the track taken by MH370. The data even includes the assumed coordinates where MH370 met its end. This resulted in a search area of just 15,000 square kilometres, not the 130,000 square kilometres searched previously.

Clearly, Ocean Infinity caught on this, grouped, and turned the data and discoveries into a commercial package, and had sufficient confidence to risk involvement and financial investment to offer Malaysia this RM315 million deal.

Based on my uneducated guess, the estimated cost of US$330,000 per day for a 100-day search will cost Ocean Infinity US$33 million, but given their confidence, I am fairly certain they will find the wreckage in less than 30 days, hence spending less than US$10 million.

While Malaysia has no risk of failure this time, the fee to be paid is substantial. I am hopeful the Malaysian Madani Government will proceed wisely, meeting the needs of finding MH370, but at the same time, ensuring the best value in spending the rakyat’s money.

The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer’s and do not necessarily represent that of Twentytwo13.