The Daily Sweat: The Braves and Dodgers are the World Series favorites ahead of the trade deadline
Will action ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline significantly shift World Series odds?
Will the MLB trade deadline significantly shift World Series odds?
Tuesday is the final day for players to be traded across Major League Baseball, and it appears that Shohei Ohtani — by far the biggest name and best player who could've been traded — is staying put. The Angels are outside of the playoffs at the moment but inched closer to a playoff spot Thursday, thanks to Ohtani’s first career complete game for the Angels in a win over the Tigers to lead a doubleheader sweep.
The Atlanta Braves are currently the favorites to win the World Series at +350 ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers at +500. The Braves have the best record in baseball at 64-36 and have the best offense in the National League to go with a pitching staff that has posted the best ERA+ in baseball so far.
The Dodgers have taken over the lead in the NL West by three games over the San Francisco Giants as the Arizona Diamondbacks have come back to earth after a hot start. The Giants are three games back of the Dodgers, while the Diamondbacks are four back.
Oddsmakers don’t have much World Series faith in any other National League teams. The next six favorites to win the title all come from the American League.
The Rays are the favorites from the AL at +600, ahead of the Houston Astros at +800 and the Texas Rangers at +900. The Rangers have the best offense in the American League, and that scoring has helped cover for a pitching staff that’s just above league average. The Rays have the best ERA in baseball at 3.70, and only the Rangers and Angels have a better team OPS in the American League.
The Astros’ offense is league average this season, but they sit two games back of the Rangers, thanks largely to a strong pitching staff.
It doesn’t seem likely that any of the favorites will acquire a player who will significantly shift their World Series odds ahead of the deadline. Don’t feel like you have to wait to bet a favorite after the trade deadline. Feel free to pull the trigger now.
Instead, you can expect some smaller moves, such as the Dodgers’ acquisitions of Kiké Hernandez and Amed Rosario. The Dodgers got Rosario for the rehabbing Noah Syndergaard and hope he can rebound and become the team’s primary shortstop. That position has been a black hole offensively for Los Angeles this season.
It’s the teams on the periphery of favorite status that could make some moves that incrementally shift their odds, but with the way teams are valuing pitching ahead of this year’s deadline, we’re not optimistic that anything seismic will happen. The Angels had to give up two prospects to acquire starter Lucas Giolito and reliever Reynaldo Lopez. They're both impending free agents.
The Angels are currently +6600 to win the World Series, as they sit three games out of a wild-card spot. Those are significantly worse odds than those of the New York Yankees (+2800), despite sitting just a half-game back of New York in the wild-card standings. Even the Padres in fourth in the NL West and 6.5 games back of an NL wild-card spot have much better odds (+4500) to win the World Series than the Angels.
World Series favorites
Atlanta Braves (+350)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+500)
Tampa Bay Rays (+600)
Houston Astros (+800)
Texas Rangers (+900)
Baltimore Orioles (+1400)
Toronto Blue Jays (+1800)
Minnesota Twins (+2500)
Philadelphia Phillies (+2500)
New York Yankees (+2800)
San Francisco Giants (+3000)
Two overnight Women’s World Cup games
There’s no prime-time Women’s World Cup action Friday, but there are two overnight games you might want to wager on.
Sweden is -120 to beat Italy (3:30 a.m. ET), while Brazil is a slight favorite at +160 over France. Sweden and Italy both have three points after one game in Group G. Brazil can clinch advancement out of Group F with a win. France drew with Jamaica in its first game of the tournament.
Matsuyama the 3M Open favorite
Hideki Matsuyama shot a 7-under 64 in the first round of the 3M Open and is the big favorite to win at +450.
Matsuyama is a shot back of leader Lee Hodges (+1100) after the first round. Defending tournament champion Tony Finau is at +1000 after he shot a 66 to open the tournament. Finau was 6-under through his first six holes. Emiliano Grillo is a shot ahead of Finau and the No. 2 favorite after Round 1 at +900.
Justin Thomas was a late entrant into the tournament as he looks to make the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and he shot a 2-under 69. Thomas was excellent until he got to the green Thursday. He had 32 putts over the course of his round.
Who cashed tickets Thursday?
The Angels swept the Tigers in a doubleheader, while the Cubs continued the Cardinals’ misery with a 10-3 win over their rivals from Missouri. Anyone who placed a flier bet on Nigeria to upset Australia in the Women’s World Cup was also thrilled after Nigeria scored three straight goals to get a 3-2 win over the co-hosts Thursday.
