The Daily Sweat: Can the United States score at least 111 Olympic medals?

·4-min read

The United States is likely going to score the most medals of any country at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The bigger question is just how many medals the U.S. will get.

The U.S. has long been the dominant country at the summer Olympics and is the favorite to win the most medals of any country once again over the next two weeks. The over/under at BetMGM of 110.5 medals for the U.S. is the highest of any country. China is No. 2 at 85.5 and Japan is third at 51.5 because of its status as the host nation.

Can the U.S. get to 111 or more? It’s not an easy bet, even if the odds are in favor of the over. Over 110.5 is at -140 while under 110.5 is at +110. The U.S. has won 101 or more medals in five of the last six Olympics but has scored 111 or more just twice in that span.

Here’s what the United States’ medal counts have looked like in the last six sets of games. The U.S. finished first in the medal count in each set of games.

2016: 121

2012: 104

2008: 112

2004: 101

2000: 93

1996: 101

The 121 medals in 2016 came without the help of the United States Women’s National Team grabbing a soccer medal either. The U.S. was knocked out in the quarterfinals four years ago. That’s relevant because the U.S. faces an uphill climb for gold already after losing 3-0 to Sweden earlier in the week.

USWNT aside, we’re inclined to take the under in this bet, even if it’s going to be really, really close. The United States’ medal count in Rio was a record and could be done again. But the Rio Olympics were held in a similar time zone and not in the midst of a worldwide pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 at the Olympics is impossible to predict — from the spread of the virus to the impact on events held without any fans in attendance.

Those factors are the same for every country, of course, and we’re wondering if they will lead to the medals at the Olympics being spread out a bit more.

As far as gold medals go, there’s no over/under total for the U.S. But they’re also a safe bet to get the most. The United States is at -1000 to win the most gold medals ahead of China at +550 and +2200 for Japan.

3M Open begins

Dustin Johnson is a clear betting favorite ahead of the 3M Open beginning Thursday in Blaine, Minnesota.

Johnson is at +750 to win the tournament ahead of Louis Oosthuizen and Tony Finau at +1400. Johnson posted a solid top-10 finish at the British Open after shooting a 67 in the final round.

The 3M Open field isn’t too stacked because it’s the week after the Open and is also sandwiched between the final major of the year and the Olympic golf tournament. The Olympic tournament starts July 29.

Johnson is at +180 to finish in the top five while Oosthuizen and Finau are at +275. We’re not too bullish on Oosthuizen this weekend. He could be due for a letdown after another run at a major title and he seems to play his best golf in the biggest tournaments. No offense to the 3M Open, but it’s not a major.

Nine MLB games to bet on Thursday

There are just 18 teams in action on Thursday in MLB. It may be a good night to take a few over/unders and moneyline bets in a long-shot parlay. The Detroit Tigers are -140 at home against the Texas Rangers in a getaway day matinee while Cleveland is a +120 underdog at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. And yes, the Red Sox and Yankees are playing each other again. Is every weekend in the second half going to feature a Yankees-Red Sox series?

Give us the Cubs +110, the Giants +145, and the Phillies at +120 to win as underdogs on Thursday.

Who cashed bets on Wednesday?

Wednesday was our first day of betting after the 2020-21 NBA season. There were just a few Olympic events and a lot of Major League Baseball along with some MLS games.

Bettors who went against the USWNT were rewarded with a big upset payout after Sweden’s 3-0 win, and if you took the draw in Sporting KC’s game against San Jose you were also nicely rewarded. Bettors who had the Cardinals on the money line (and under 8) had to sweat a bit against the Cubs, but the Cards got a walk-off 3-2 win in 10 innings after Chicago tied the game in the ninth.

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