Survey: ‘Anwar Factor’ to shape state polls outcome on August 12

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 10 — A survey by independent pollster Ilham Centre revealed that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership is among the reasons why respondents would vote for Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) in Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan in the state polls on August 12.

Anwar recorded the greatest support from Penang with 66 per cent of respondents saying that they would vote for the PH-BN unity coalition due to Anwar.

On the other hand, 21 per cent of respondents in the state said they won’t vote for the PH-BN coalition while the remaining respondents said they were not sure.

Meanwhile, in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, 56 per cent and 55 per cent of the respondents, respectively, said that they would vote for the PH-BN coalition due to Anwar’s leadership.

The percentage of those who stated that they would not vote for the PH-BN coalition was also relatively low for these two states, at 24 per cent in Selangor and 27 per cent in Negeri Sembilan. The rest of the respondents replied that they were not sure.

Overall, 37 per cent of respondents from the six states, including Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan, said that they would vote for the PH-BN coalition due to Anwar, while 35 per cent said they won’t vote for the coalition and the remaining 28 per cent stating that they were not sure.

“The study showed that PH-BN can rely on Anwar’s strength. This is because 37 per cent of respondents admitted that they can support PH-BN because of this factor, especially in PH-governed states,” the study read.

The survey also pointed out an interesting fact, related to Kelantan, which is considered an Opposition stronghold, where the number of respondents who answered not sure (52 per cent) was higher than those who rejected the possibility of voting for the PH-BN coalition (43 per cent).

Meanwhile, in Terengganu, 40 per cent of respondents answered they were not sure compared to the 45 per cent who answered no.

“This shows that Anwar’s personal influence has opened space for rational Malay voters, even in Opposition states, to move to the middle line.

“Respondents for this segment stated that they are open to seeing objectively the efforts that the prime minister will make to restore the country,” the study said.

The survey also revealed that respondents had said that the state governments led by PH-BN, namely in Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, had performed better compared to those helmed by PN-PAS, namely Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu.

“This gives the impression that the administration of the menteri besar or chief minister in the states of Pakatan Harapan is well received through the policy that was implemented a term ago,” the study said.

The study conducted by the think tank with the title ‘The level of people’s acceptance on Unity Government and Malaysia Madani policies: Focus on six states ahead of the 15th general state elections’ comprised 2,416 respondents from the six states.

The survey was conducted from July 11 to 27, with 102 respondents involved in in-depth interviews and focus group discussions, and included young people, local leaders and women.

Ilham Centre also said that the data from face-to-face were collected by enumerators using surveys and semi-structured interview protocols.

“The margin of error in this survey is 5 per cent with a confidence level of 95 per cent.

“The quantitative and qualitative data collection process covers all six states with a stratified random sampling method covering all age levels, ethnicities, household groups, education levels, occupations and different localities.

“The research data was analysed quantitatively and qualitatively thematically,” said Ilham Centre.