‘Saw X’ Leads Trio of New Films That Can Revive Slumping Box Office

The past two weekends have been rough for theaters, as the riches of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” have worn off and overall grosses have fallen to levels not seen since mid-February. Fortunately, a trio of new genre films are here to bring some business back.

The threesome in question are Lionsgate’s “Saw X,” a back-to-basics approach to the gory horror franchise that defined the genre in the 2000s; Paramount’s preschooler family film “Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie,” the latest offering from the Nick Jr. series that has become a merchandising titan; and Disney/20th Century’s “The Creator,” an original sci-fi film from “Rogue One” director Gareth Edwards.

Trackers don’t have a consensus on whether “Saw X” or “Paw Patrol 2” will be the No. 1 film. Distribution sources have told TheWrap that projections for “Saw X” have ranged as low as $15 million and as high as $25 million, while projections for “Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie” are settling at around $20 million.

Lionsgate is projecting an opening similar to the $16 million opening of the 2017 installment “Jigsaw,” which would be a positive result given the reported thrifty production budget of just $10 million.

Back in its heyday nearly two decades ago, the “Saw” sequels were a reliable Halloween moneymaker for theaters. From “Saw II” in 2005 to “Saw V” in 2008, each installment earned at least $30 million on opening weekend and cleared $100 million worldwide with “Saw III” setting the franchise record with $163 million against a $10 million budget.

But the poor fan reception to “Saw V” and its villain Mark Hoffman, who replaced Tobin Bell’s sick mastermind John “Jigsaw” Kramer, caused the opening weekend of “Saw VI” to plummet to $14 million.

A year later, “Saw 3D” rebounded with $133 million worldwide as it was marketed as the series finale, but recent efforts by Lionsgate to revive the series have had mixed results, with 2017’s “Jigsaw” grossing $104 million worldwide while the 2021 spinoff “Spiral” only grossed $39.5 million in May, well below the $297 million that fellow horror film “A Quiet Place — Part II” made that same summer.

“Saw X” is being sold to longtime fans as a return to all the things they loved about the series in its prime with a modern filmmaking touch. A story that takes place between the first two films in the franchise allows Bell to not only return as Jigsaw but also stand as the centerpiece of the series once more while Shawnee Smith also returns as the Jigsaw survivor-turned-apprentice Amanda Young.

Lionsgate even made a point of showing off the custom studio logo card that all of the original “Saw” films opened with — complete with red clouds and rusty gears. The message to fans is clear: “Saw X” is a slice of gory 2000s nostalgia, and Lionsgate is hoping that it will bring fans back to play another game.

“Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie” is a sequel to a film that made $144 million worldwide back in August 2021 as a day-and-date release in theaters and Paramount+. Last weekend, “Mighty Movie” opened in Australia and New Zealand to an opening weekend that was 57% higher than its predecessor, and Paramount is hoping for a similar result domestically this weekend with a launch in the mid-to-high teens.

Similar to Pixar’s “Cars” series for Disney, the big revenue stream for “Paw Patrol” is the enormous merchandise empire that has been built around it since the show first premiered on Nickelodeon a decade ago. Paramount reports that since 2014 the franchise generated $10 billion in merch sales, and the first “Paw Patrol” movie became one of the most-watched original titles on Paramount+ as it drove family subscriber numbers.

Similarly, Paramount’s recent animated film “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” grossed a decent $172.8 million at the global box office, but made a killing in retail with over $1 billion in merch sales in 2023. The studio, which has already greenlit a third “Paw Patrol” film, is hoping that this more superhero-tinged sequel will bring another ancillary windfall.

Finally, there’s Disney/20th Century’s “The Creator,” which is offering something always valued by online cinephiles but not always as much by the public at large: original sci-fi.

Of the three films released this weekend, “The Creator” has the highest production budget, reported to be at $80 million. New Regency and eOne produced the film with 20th Century distributing.

In an effort to build up interest and word-of-mouth among hardcore sci-fi fans, Disney premiered the film earlier this month at Fantastic Fest, Alamo Drafthouse’s genre festival where Paramount launched “Smile” to great success last year. So far, reviews have been generally positive with a 69% score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, while Fantastic Fest attendees raved about the film on social media.

Sci-fi has been a hard sell theatrically when a franchise or a big star isn’t attached — sometimes even when they are, as “Blade Runner 2049” proved six years ago — and while “The Creator” lead star John David Washington has made a name for himself from films like “BlacKkKlansman” and “Tenet,” he isn’t as big as “Dune” stars Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya.

Marketing for “The Creator” has focused on its dazzling visuals, with giant spaceships shooting laser beams over the Earth and androids wandering through the lush farms and wilderness of Thailand. Critics have praised Gareth Edwards’ technical craft, though criticized its story of humans vs. machines as lacking a new take on the sci-fi trope or any emotional heft.

For now, “The Creator” tracking for an opening in the low-to-mid teens, with the hope that strong audience reception this weekend can allow it to perform as counterprogramming against Taylor Swift’s “Eras” and the horror offerings “The Exorcist: Believer” that populate the October release slate.

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