Final SAG Predictions: Best Supporting Actress – The Oscar Duel Between Yuh-Jung Youn and Maria Bakalova Continues

Clayton Davis
·6-min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

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DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2021 SAG AWARDS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

UPDATED: Apr. 1, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The unpredictable supporting actress race continues and this is where we could see a “favorite” emerge in the race. If Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) wins, it’ll be difficult not to predict that Oscar will follow suit, no matter what BAFTA ends up choosing. Only Bakalova and Youn are nominated there. This could be the place where Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) declares her competitive place in the race after leading the critics’ awards this season. Her win could come with a “Minari” sweep or instead of giving it the prize for cast ensemble. This also could be a cross correction for Olivia Colman (“The Father”), who only lost SAG when she upset fellow nominee Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) in 2018. If that happens, watch out for the scale to tilt in her direction as a representative win for Zeller’s film at the Oscars, which has six noms.

PRECURSORS LEADER:
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar

AND THE NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Yuh-jung Youn
    "Minari" (A24)

    ROLE: Soonja
    SAG HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

  2. Maria Bakalova
    "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)

    ROLE: Tutar Sagdiyev
    SAG HISTORY: Never nominated

    DIRECTOR: Jason Woliner
    SYNOPSIS: A satire on Trump’s America that follows a Kazakh journalist who’s sent to America to deliver a gift from his government to Vice President Mike Pence. Along the way, his worldview is turned upside down and steadfast beliefs are challenged by his teenage daughter.
    STARRING: Sacha Baron Cohen, Maria Bakalova

  3. Olivia Colman
    "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)

    ROLE: Anne
    SAG HISTORY: 4 nominations, 1 win
    (2020) - "The Crown" - Female actor in a drama series
    (2020) - "The Crown" - Cast ensemble in a drama series (WINNER)
    (2020) - "Fleabag" - Cast ensemble in a comedy series
    (2019) - "The Favourite" - Female actor in a leading role in a motion picture


    DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller
    SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.
    STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams

  4. Glenn Close
    "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)

    ROLE: Mamaw
    SAG HISTORY: 9 nominations, 2 wins
    (2019) - "The Wife" - Female actor in a leading role in a motion picture (WINNER)
    (2012) - "Albert Nobbs" - Female actor in a leading role in a motion picture
    (2012) - "Damages" - Female actor in a drama series
    (2011) - "Damages" - Female actor in a drama series
    (2010) - "Damages" - Female actor in a drama series
    (2008) - "Damages" - Female actor in a drama series
    (2005) - "The Lion in Winter" - Female actor in a television movie or miniseries (WINNER)
    (1998) - "In the Gloaming" - Female actor in a television movie or miniseries
    (1996) - "Serving in Silence: The Margarethe Cammermeyer Story" - Female actor in a television movie or miniseries


    DIRECTOR: Ron Howard
    SYNOPSIS: An urgent phone call pulls a Yale Law student back to his Ohio hometown, where he reflects on three generations of family history and his own future.
    STARRING: Amy Adams, Glenn Close, Gabriel Basso, Haley Bennett, Freida Pinto, Bo Hopkins, Owen Asztalos

  5. Helena Zengel
    "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Johanna Leonberger

    DIRECTOR: Paul Greengrass
    SYNOPSIS: A Civil War veteran agrees to deliver a girl, taken by the Kiowa people years ago, to her aunt and uncle, against her will. They travel hundreds of miles and face grave dangers as they search for a place that either can call home.
    STARRING: Tom Hanks, Helena Zengel, Elizabeth Marvel, Mare Winningham, Michael Angelo Covino, Ray McKinnon

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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