In Sabah, rival groups all chasing for enough seats to tip the scales in Putrajaya

KOTA KINABALU, Nov 18 — Once considered a Barisan Nasional “fixed deposit”, Sabah’s reputation as such will be tested tomorrow in a 15th general election the coalition had initially expected to crush but was now seen to be on the backfoot.

The ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah-Barisan Nasional (GRS-BN) pact is expected to win the biggest share of the state’s 25 seats, due to its government narrative and also a split in the opposition.

But emerging rivalry between the two, as well as among the Opposition in Pakatan Harapan (PH), Parti Warisan (Warisan) and newest entry Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (PKDM), meant none might gain enough seats to tip the scales at federal level.

“The rivalry between GRS-BN versus the few independent candidates could split the victory. How could Sabah be a kingmaker significantly if no party has a strong win (majority seats),” asked University Technology Mara political analyst Tony Paridi Bagang.

He noted possible upsets in several marginal seats such as Penampang, Kota Marudu and Tenom.

GRS allegiance in question

On his visit here recently, caretaker prime minister and Umno vice president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob declared that some 15 seats from Sabah’s GRS-BN pact would be crucial, but because BN is only contesting 12 seats, he was ostensibly referring to both camps that included Bersatu that was fiercely hostile to his Umno, albeit back in the peninsula.

Chief minister and Sabah Bersatu chairman Datuk Hajiji Noor acknowledged the statement by saying it was expecting to win a minimum of 15 seats, but avoided explicitly stating whether GRS, which has Sabah Bersatu as one of its five components, would give its support to Perikatan Nasional, as expected, or BN.

Three of GRS’s five components — Bersatu, Star and SAPP — are also components of the PN coalition. Only Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and United Sabah National Alliance (Usno) are not.

The Sabah Bersatu candidates in Sabah all contested on a Gabungan Rakyat Sabah ticket, except for Beluran’s Datuk Ronald Kiandee, who obtained his credentials directly from PN after being dropped from the GRS/BN lineup.

The PN incursion from their national leader may have hurt ties with its local chapter, and Sabah Bersatu may retaliate by giving the GRS seats to the BN instead.

PKDM, the Warisan splinter party turned GRS-friendly, could potentially win two out of the seven seats it was contesting, but who it ends up supporting will depend on what is offered to the fledgling party.

“In the end, every seat counts and who can make the best offer will come up tops,” said Sabahan analyst Oh Ei Sun, who is senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

“And it’s obvious who can pay better,” he added, explaining that cash, position and power were the traditional mode of currency.

Did the PH wave extend to Sabah?

The “kingmaker” status is also in question now as the peninsula-based Pakatan Harapan was gaining momentum in some crucial seats here.

In the three-way race between the GRS-BN coalitions and two main opposition contenders (PH and Warisan), PH may tie or even overtake Warisan if it manages to make inroads into some seats where voters will opt to vote for the party instead of the candidate.

With the opposition vote split in many seats, especially those in the urban and semi-urban areas, PH was initially expected to only retain the Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan seats.

But in incumbent seats like Penampang, Putatan, Sepanggar, Tawau and Tenom, the sentiments have been moving in their favour after strong campaigning from PH leaders.

DAP has brought the most national leaders into Sabah, with the likes of Yeo Bee Yin, Anthony Loke, Lim Kit Siang, Teresa Kok, Teo Nie Ching, Hannah Yeoh and Tony Pua making an appearance.

Aside from Ismail Sabri, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, no other parties had that many national leaders fly in to campaign.

The votes that PH gets is more likely to hurt Warisan than the GRS-BN side.

D-Day for party leaders

Like on a national stage, this election has high stakes for some Sabah parties whose party presidents and leaders are on shaky ground; STAR president Datuk Jeffrey Kitingam and PH state chairman Datuk Christina Liew are among them, but the most heat is on PBS and United Progress Kinabalu Organisation (Upko).

PBS president Datuk Seri Maximus Ongkili is staring at the possibility of a final hurrah as he battles the perception of not doing enough to lift the rural Kota Marudu out of the top ten most impoverished districts in the country.

After holding the seat for almost three decades, he appears vulnerable to the challenge from a former ally from Bersatu, Datuk Wetrom Bahanda, who is contesting on a PKDM ticket.

Upko president Datuk Wilfred Madius Tangau is also doing all he can to hold on to his seat in Tuaran, in a grudge match against PBS’ Datuk Joniston Bangkuai.

On paper, Bangkuai is the favourite to win; he has the chief minister’s homeground support and, being the state’s assistant tourism minister, is more popular in Kiulu where he won their last match in 2020.

But the momentum for PH cannot be denied. Some on the ground said he has been working hard to get over being blamed from defecting from BN in GE14. And Warisan’s former beauty queen Joanna Henley Rampas might also play a role in splitting votes in this KDM seat.

In Penampang, voters are torn between Warisan number two Datuk Darell Leiking and Upko president-designate Datuk Ewon Benedick.

Leiking was set to win the seat, albeit with a smaller margin, but the “red wave” might extend to Penampang and give Ewon the edge.

In two back-to-back rallies at Funky Farm last weekend, Warisan’s rally saw a full house on a rainy Friday night from start to end, while PH’s rally the next night, under similar conditions, was noticeably less crowded.

But in all elections, crowd attendance is not always the best indicator of support and sentiment, and especially in Sabah, the election is won on the ground, in village homes and nowadays, over WhatsApp groups.