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Putin might intensify mobilization after elections, expert warns

Morning launch of the Leleka UAV by the Third Assault Brigade in Donetsk Oblast
Morning launch of the Leleka UAV by the Third Assault Brigade in Donetsk Oblast

Pavlo Narozhnyy, Ukrainian military expert and founder of the Reactive Post charity organization, suggested in an interview with NV Radio on March 19 that following the “elections” in Russia, dictator Vladimir Putin might be emboldened to mobilize significantly more Russians to the war against Ukraine.

Narozhnyy’s direct speech is as follows:

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“Yes, [the end of the ‘elections’] will affect the front.

First of all, it was necessary to show some kind of victory before the elections, namely they captured Avdiivka [Donetsk Oblast], did something there, etc., i.e. to come up with some victories.

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Even during the capture of Avdiivka, according to Russian military correspondents (not even Ukrainian services or journalists), they lost 16,000-20,000 KIA. This means they have at least two or three times more wounded. That is, total combat losses may exceed 50,000-60,000 people. And these losses must be replaced with someone. In other words, mobilization.

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Mobilization has never been popular in any country in the world, especially in Russia, where they understand where they will be sent and what will happen to them. But we should expect fresh [Russian] troops at the front in a few months. These won’t be some well-trained specialists, but a huge number can arrive [for] those ‘meat assaults’ of ‘meat specialists’ [Russian military commanders].

In addition, we understand that all possible [state] expenses will be directed to military needs.

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A clear example would be the [oil] refineries that are constantly ‘on fire’ in Russia. We should understand that both gasoline and petroleum products will rise in price in Russia, and they may even face a shortage of petroleum products. But I’m more than sure that the Russian military will get all the petroleum products they need.

No major changes [in the war] will take place. The war, as it went along this path of a war of extermination [determined] primarily by the struggle of resources, [will continue]. Russia doesn’t fight with technology, but with the huge number of people it loses on the battlefield and the huge amount of [Ukrainian] infrastructure it destroys.

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Their operational planning is quite typical. They cut off the flanks in Avdiivka, they cut off the Ukrainian flanks in Bakhmut. Now they’re trying to carry out a similar operation and are attacking on the flanks near Kupyansk [Kharkiv Oblast]. That is, very often everything is replicated [in their approach to warfighting].

Of course, they adapt, find some new ways, new approaches. But their operational and tactical planning remain the same.

It was clear before Putin’s ‘elections’ that he would become president and would rule until his death. As long as Putin is in power, he’ll be at war with Ukraine, with Europe, and the entire civilized world. That is, he puts himself in opposition to the whole world. Therefore, it [the election] hasn’t fundamentally changed the [Russian] strategic planning.”

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine