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Predicted grades awarded this summer will be 'dodgy', private school chief warns

Students picking up their A-level results in 2019 at Brighton College in Sussex
Students picking up their A-level results in 2019 at Brighton College in Sussex

Students will land university places that they do not deserve this year while others will miss out because of “dodgy” predicted grades, a private school chief has warned.

The most unfair thing about this summer’s grades will be “if universities think they are fair”, according to Barnaby Lenon, chair of the Independent Schools Council.

He said that many students mistakenly believe that the predicted grade, which teachers submitted to exam boards last month, will bare a close resemblance to the grade they are awarded in August.

In fact, predicted grades will carry “limited weight” because Ofqual, the exam regulator, “know that they are so unreliable”.

Speaking at Buckingham University’s annual Festival of Higher Education, Mr Lenon, a former board member of Ofqual, said that a school’s past performance is likely to have a much bigger impact on this year’s students’ grades.

Ofqual have said that a data on a school’s previous grades, as well as pupils’ prior attainment, will be used as part of their statistical modelling to determine grades.

But they are not planning to publish the full details of their algorithm until results day, meaning students are left in the dark about exactly how their grades will be calculated.

“To put it another way, Ofqual already knows which grades each student is going to get in each subject, they just haven’t yet parcelled out those grades to individual pupils.”

He said that for a “good proportion of students” could be given the wrong grades next month.

“Universities will be wrongly pleased to admit a student whose grades were good but much better than they deserved, higher than they would have got had they actually put pen to paper.”

Mr Lenon said that universities should not be surprised if they admit a student who turns out to be a “dunderhead”.

On the other hand, students may be unfairly rejected because their grades are too low, he said, as he urged admissions tutors to “look behind these dodgy grades”.

His remarks come amid a growing backlash against International Baccalaureate (IB) results which were awarded to pupils this week.

Nearly 10,000 students have signed a petition calling for "justice" for this year's candidates, with a separate petition calling for new grades.

Many students say they have received grades far below their teachers' predictions or have even lost out on their IB Diploma altogether despite high predicted grades.

The IB is an alternative qualification to A-levels, which some of the country’s leading private schools offer to students. As with A-levels and GCSEs, its exams were cancelled this summer and replaced by predicted grades.

Sally Collier, chief regulator at Ofqual, has previously said that this year’s grading process will be fair, and that grades should be treated in the same way as those from previous years.

Ofqual is setting up an exam helpline so that students and their parents can ask about the appeals process and discuss any other concerns they have about predicted grades.

The number of British school leavers applying to start degree courses this autumn has surged to a record high despite uncertainty amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Ucas figures suggest.

A record 40.5% of all UK 18-year-olds have applied to university - the first time more than two out of five have applied by this point in the application cycle, according to the university admissions service.

The latest Ucas figures - which look at all applications made by June 30 - suggest that 281,980 school leavers have applied, up from 275,520 last year, despite there being fewer 18-year-olds in the population.