Polymarket Slammed for Accepting Wagers on Deadly California Blaze
Polymarket has been slammed for accepting wagers on the Palisades fire that is ravaging Los Angeles.
The prediction market, which exploded in popularity during the 2024 election cycle, has accepted wagers on how many acres the blaze will burn, the California cities it might decimate, and more.
“Polymarket has a whole section for betting money on the pain and suffering of your fellow Americans,” one user noted.
Polymarket touted its fire markets on social media and was met with mass ridicule.
“Betting on how much the fire will burn is crossing the line,” one commenter said, tagging Polymarket’s X account.
Another added: “People can literally make money over how destructive a fire is. This timeline is dark.”
A third said succinctly: “Polymarket should be shut down for this.”
People have shelled out thousands to wager on the fire, which has killed at least two people and destroyed over a thousand structures, like the Corpus Christi Church in Pacific Palisades and the multi-million dollar homes of some celebrities.
Hurricane-force winds and a strained water system have complicated efforts to extinguish the Palisades fire and other blazes burning in and around Los Angeles.
The most popular market on Polymarket—with a handle of $43,000 by Wednesday afternoon—was whether the Palisades fire will be contained by Friday or not. Another was titled: “When will the Palisades fire be 50% contained?”
Markets listed as “new” on Wednesday afternoon gave people an opportunity to bet on whether the blaze will reach Santa Monica (15 percent chance) or Malibu (24 percent).
Polymarket works as a stock market of sorts for current events, paying out winners in cryptocurrency based on when they buy into a market. It accepts wagers on all sorts of events—including sports, pop culture and how many times Elon Musk will tweet this week—but appears to be most popular with those wishing to gamble on politics.
Polymarket is funded in part by the GOP mega-donor Peter Thiel, a PayPal co-founder who is close with JD Vance. The website was founded by Shayne Coplan, a 27-year-old New Yorker who is also Polymarket’s chief executive officer.
