Partisan election integrity gap at record high: Gallup
A record gap has opened up between Democrats and Republicans over their faith in the accuracy of the vote count in the presidential election, a new Gallup poll shows.
The survey, conducted from Sept. 3 to 15, found that 84 percent of Democrats trust the vote, compared to 28 percent of Republicans. That percentage of Republicans is a 16-point drop since the 2020 election, when 44 percent had confidence in the vote.
The last time the majority of Republicans were confident in the election was 2016 at 55 percent, data showed. Former President Trump won that election, but lost his race for re-election four years later and stoked election skepticism with false claims of fraud.
Democrats saw a sharp increase in trust in the vote between 2008 and 2016, growing from 57 percent to 85 percent, according to the poll.
Overall, the portion of Americans who said that they are very or somewhat confident that the votes has remained fairly consistent since 2008, hovering around 60 percent. It hit 66 percent in 2016, and was at 57 percent in the latest poll.
But the poll found that the percentage of Americans who say they are “not at all confident” in the vote has jumped more than 10 percentage points, from six percent in 2004 to 19 percent now.
Two decades ago, the partisan dynamics were flipped. Ahead of the 2004 election, 87 percent of Republicans were confident in the vote compared to 59 percent of Democrats. Gallup noted that might have been due to the disputed vote count in Florida in 2000 when Democrat Al Gore lost to Republican George W. Bush.
In 2008, however, Republicans’ confidence plummeted, going from 87 percent in 2004 to 57 percent, the poll found.
The survey noted that Americans tend to be more positive about the accuracy of the vote at their own polling place, though there are partisan differences there as well. Seventy-six of all respondents said that they are very or somewhat confident in the integrity of their polling place; with Democrats at 90 percent and Republicans at 70 percent.
The poll said that Republicans’ lack of trust in the accuracy of the vote likely comes from concerns about ineligible or fraudulent voting. While 74 percent of Republicans said that fraudulent or illegal means of voting will be a major problem nationwide, 44 percent of Independents said the same along with just 21 percent of Democrats.
Democrats and voters of color are more concerned about eligible voters being blocked from casting ballots, though those concerns have dissipated in recent years.
Republican concern about eligible people being blocked from voting has held steady around 32 percent since 2016. But it spiked among Democrats ahead of the last presidential election. In 2016, 36 percent of Democrats were concerned, which jumped to 62 percent in 2020 and fell back down to 37 percent this year.
This poll surveyed 1,007 adults aged 18 and older nationwide, including the District of Columbia, via cellphone and landline. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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