Overall deaths decline in South Africa during lockdown

The coronavirus pandemic has led to a surge in excess deaths across many parts of the world, but one country has bucked the trend.

South Africa has witnessed fewer deaths than normal in recent months, a declining mortality rate attributed to one of the world’s strictest lockdowns.

South Africans have lived under draconian restrictions to their freedom of movement since March 27th. It was only on Monday, ten weeks into the country’s lockdown, that a ban on alcohol sales was eased.

As wretched as the enforced abstinence must have been, South Africa’s government is convinced that the booze ban has helped save more lives than have been claimed by Covid-19.

Forced to stay at home, South Africans have had fewer opportunities to kill each other. Equally, motorists getting behind the wheel of their cars are more likely to be sober.

“Fewer people have been involved in accidents and fewer people have been stabbed,” said Zweli Mkhize, the country’s health minister.

South Africa has reported 792 coronavirus deaths, in total, the highest in Africa.

But figures from South Africa’s National Population Register and the South African Medical Research Council indicate that 7,596 people died in the week ending on May 20th, 809 fewer than the average in recent years.

The week ending April 22nd saw 1,313 fewer deaths than expected.

South Africa has some of the world’s highest levels of violent crime in the world, with alcohol thought to play a role in roughly 50 percent of deaths. Half of all murders are committed on Friday and Saturday nights. The country's murder rate has fallen 63 percent since the lockdown began.

South Africa also has the world’s 16th highest number of road fatalities, according to the World Health Organisation.

Experts say the reduction in deaths may not entirely be down to the alcohol ban. Fewer cars on the road and a reduction in the number of other contagious diseases because of the lockdown may also have played a role.

The country has paid a hefty price for its lockdown. Private sector activity fell to a record low last month, while the country’s economy, already in recession, is officially projected to shrink 7pct this year. Some economists are predicting a double-digit contraction.