Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose from ‘West Side Story’ Begins to Pull Away with the Critics’ Groups

·8-min read
.
.

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

More from Variety

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB
Revisit the prediction archive of the 2021 season THE ARCHIVE
Link to television awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

UPDATED: Dec 23, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Ariana DeBose leads in the precursor prizes for her work as Anita in Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story,” and while she could be in serious contention for an Oscar win, this is still the most competitive race of any category this year, and perhaps in the last decade.

Caitríona Balfe is still in the mix for her work in Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast,” as is her co-star Judi Dench, who could significantly boost the BAFTA Awards. While the narrative of being the oldest nominee in the category’s history is in the same playbook for DeBose’s Oscar-winning co-star Rita Moreno, it’s still worth considering as the acting branch loves to reward veterans.

Kirsten Dunst is also competitive, considering how well “The Power of the Dog” has done on the circuit, especially for her co-stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Long overdue after snubs for “Melancholia” and “The Beguiled,” her dance at the ceremony seems to have finally arrived.

Aunjanue Ellis looks like a package deal with her co-star Will Smith from Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard,” while I’m starting to wonder if that’s the case with Oscar-winner Marlee Matlin and her supporting actor contending co-star Troy Kotsur from “CODA.”

Powerhouses still on the bubble include Critics Choice nominee Ann Dowd (“Mass”), Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Nina Arianda (“Being the Ricardos”) and Ruth Negga (“Passing”).

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Precursor Awards Leader: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2021-2022)coming soon
Awards Season Calendar

.
.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

ACTRESS

FILM

DISTRIBUTOR

1

Ariana DeBose

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

2

Caitríona Balfe

“Belfast”

Focus Features

3

Kirsten Dunst

“The Power of the Dog”

Netflix

4

Aunjanue Ellis

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

5

Marlee Matlin

“CODA”

Apple Original Films

NEXT IN LINE

6

Rita Moreno

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

7

Ruth Negga

“Passing”

Netflix

8

Judi Dench

“Belfast”

Focus Features

9

Ann Dowd

“Mass”

Bleecker Street

10

Nina Arianda

“Being the Ricardos”

Amazon Studios

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

11

Meryl Streep

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

12

Cate Blanchett

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

13

Suzanna Son

“Red Rocket”

A24

14

Jessie Buckley

“The Lost Daughter”

Netflix

15

Olga Merediz

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

16

Gaby Hoffmann

“C’mon C’mon”

A24

17

Kathryn Hunter

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Apple Original Films/A24

18

Dakota Johnson

“The Lost Daughter”

Netflix

19

Rebecca Ferguson

“Dune”

Warner Bros

20

Saniyya Sidney

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Haley Bennett

“Cyrano”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

22

Regina King

“The Harder They Fall”

Netflix

23

Sally Hawkins

“Spencer”

Neon/Topic Studios

24

Molly Parker

“Jockey”

Sony Pictures Classics

25

Martha Plimpton

“Mass”

Bleecker Street

26

Cate Blanchett

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

27

Helen Mirren

“The Duke”

Sony Pictures Classics

28

Emily Blunt

“A Quiet Place Part II”

Paramount Pictures

29

Tilda Swinton

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

30

Toni Collette

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

UNRANKED LISTING

Abigail Breslin

“Stillwater”

Focus Features

Akiley Love

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Alexandra Shipp

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

Alice Braga

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Alicia Vikander

“Blue Bayou”

Focus Features

Alicia Vikander

“The Green Knight”

A24

Amy Adams

“Dear Evan Hansen”

Universal Pictures

Amy Forsyth

“The Novice”

IFC Films

Amy Seimetz

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Andrea Riseborough

“The Electrical Life of Louis Wain”

Amazon Studios

Angelina Jolie

“Eternals”

Marvel Studios

Anya Taylor-Joy

“Last Night in Soho”

Focus Features

Ariana Grande

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Audra McDonald

“Respect”

United Artists Releading/MGM

Awkwafina

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Awkwafina

“Swan Song”

Apple Original Films

Bella Murphy

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Betty Gilpin

“The Tomorrow War”

Amazon Studios

Bree Elrod

“Red Rocket”

A24

Briana Middleton

“The Tender Bar”

Amazon Studios

Camille Cottin

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Camille Cottin

“Stillwater”

Focus Features

Charlotte Rampling

“Benedetta”

IFC Films

Charlotte Rampling

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Cherry Jones

“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

Searchlight Pictures

Claire Foy

“The Electrical Life of Louis Wain”

Amazon Studios

Daniela Melchior

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Daphne Patakia

“Benedetta”

IFC Films

Daphne Rubin-Vega

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Darci Shaw

“The Colour Room”

Sky Cinema

Demi Singleton

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

Diana Rigg

“Last Night in Soho”

Focus Features

Emma Thompson

“Cruella”

Disney Plus

Fala Chen

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Fereshteh Sadre Orafaiy

“A Hero”

Amazon Studios

Florence Pugh

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Frances McDormand

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Frankie Shaw

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Glenn Close

“Swan Song”

Apple Original Films

Glenn Close

“Four Good Days”

Vertical Entertainment

Harriet Walter

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

Jada Pinkett Smith

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

Jayne Houdyshell

“The Humans”

A24/Showtime

Jessica Henwick

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

Joanna Page

“Dream Horse”

Bleecker Street

Jodie Comer

“Free Guy”

20th Century Studios

Julia Fox

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Kerry Fox

“The Colour Room”

Sky Cinema

Kiki Layne

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Leslie Grace

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Leslie Jones

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Lilou Siauvaud

“Stillwater”

Focus Features

Lily Rabe

“The Tender Bar”

Amazon Studios

Linh Dan Pham

“Blue Bayou”

Focus Features

Luisa Ranieri

“The Hand of God”

Netflix

Mary Steenburgen

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

Melanie Lynskey

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Melissa Barrera

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Meng-er Zhang

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Michela De Rossi

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Michelle Yeoh

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Milena Smit

“Parallel Mothers”

Sony Pictures Classics

Millicient Simmonds

“A Quiet Place Part II”

Paramount Pictures

Moses Ingram

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Apple Original Films/A24

Naomie Harris

“Swan Song”

Apple Original Films

Natalia Traven

“Cry Macho”

Warner Bros

Nomzamo Mbatha

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Octavia Spencer

“Encounter”

Amazon Studios

Olga Kurylenko

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Olivia Colman

“Mothering Sunday”

Sony Pictures Classics

Polly Draper

“Shiva Baby”

Utopia

Priyanka Chopra Jonas

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

Rachel Weisz

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Revika Reustle

“Pleasure”

Neon

Riley Keough

“Zola”

A24

Rossy de Palma

“Parallel Mothers”

Sony Pictures Classics

Salma Hayek Pinaul

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Salma Hayek Pinaul

“Eternals”

Marvel Studios

Sandra Hüller

“I’m Your Man”

Bleecker Street

Sarina Farhadi

“A Hero”

Amazon Studios

Shari Headley

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Sharon Duncan-Brewster

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Siân Phillips

“Dream Horse”

Bleecker Street

Sydney Kowalske

“Blue Bayou”

Focus Features

Taissa Farmiga

“John and the Hole”

IFC Films

Teresa Saponagelo

“The Hand of God”

Netflix

Tiffany Haddish

“The Card Counter”

Focus Features

Tig Notaro

“Together Together”

Amazon Studios

Tilda Swinton

“The Souvenir Part II”

A24

Vanessa Hudgens

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

Vanessa Redgrave

“Georgetown”

Vertical Entertainment

Vera Farmiga

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Viola Davis

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Zazie Beetz

“Nine Days”

Sony Pictures Classics

Zendaya

“Spider-Man: No Way Home”

Sony Pictures

Zendaya

“Dune”

Warner Bros

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actress)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most significant Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Only two women have won this category, Dianne Wiest and Shelly Winters. Thelma Ritter has the most nominations at six, while Amy Adams has five. The oldest winner ever is Peggy Ashcroft (“A Passage to India”) at 77, while the oldest nominee is Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) at 87. Tatum O’Neal (“Paper Moon”) is the youngest nominee and winner in history at 10.

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

Best of Variety

Sign up for Variety’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting