Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress – Latinas Could Rule the Academy This Year

·13-min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB
Revisit the prediction archive of the 2021 season THE ARCHIVE
Link to television awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

More from Variety

DRAFT>>>PRE-SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

UPDATED: July 22, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: To be announced.

IN THE HEIGHTS, center: Olga Merediz, 2021. © Warner Bros. / courtesy Everett Collection - Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C
IN THE HEIGHTS, center: Olga Merediz, 2021. © Warner Bros. / courtesy Everett Collection - Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C

©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Kirsten Dunst
    "The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    DIRECTOR: Jane Campion
    SYNOPSIS: Charismatic rancher Phil Burbank inspires fear and awe in those around him. When his brother brings home a new wife and her son, Phil torments them until he finds himself exposed to the possibility of love.
    STARRING: Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons, Thomasin McKenzie, Kodi Smit-McPhee

  2. Ann Dowd
    "Mass" (Bleecker Street)

    DIRECTOR: Fran Kranz
    SYNOPSIS: Aftermath of a violent tragedy that affects the lives of two couples in different ways.
    STARRING: Jason Isaacs, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd, Reed Birney

  3. Nina Arianda
    "Being the Ricardos" (Amazon Studios)

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: Follows Lucy and Desi as they face a crisis that could end their careers and another that could end their marriage.
    STARRING: Javier Bardem, Nicole Kidman, J.K. Simmons, Nina Arianda, Alia Shawkat, Jake Lacy, Clark Gregg, Tony Hale

  4. Olga Merediz
    "In the Heights" (Warner Bros)

    DIRECTOR: Jon M. Chu
    SYNOPSIS: A film version of the Broadway musical in which Usnavi, a sympathetic New York bodega owner, saves every penny every day as he imagines and sings about a better life.
    STARRING: Anthony Ramos, Corey Hawkins, Leslie Grace, Melissa Barrera, Olga Merediz, Daphne Rubin-Vega, Gregory Diaz IV, Jimmy Smits

  5. Ariana DeBose
    "West Side Story" (20th Century Studios)

    DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg
    SYNOPSIS: An adaptation of the 1957 musical, West Side Story explores forbidden love and the rivalry between the Jets and the Sharks, two teenage street gangs of different ethnic backgrounds.
    STARRING: Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Josh Andrés Rivera, Ana Isabelle, Corey Stoll, Brian d'Arcy James, Rita Moreno

Passing - Credit: Eduard Grau
Passing - Credit: Eduard Grau

Eduard Grau

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. Alicia Vikander
    "Blue Bayou" (Focus Features)††

    DIRECTOR: Justin Chon
    SYNOPSIS: As a Korean-American man raised in the Louisiana bayou works hard to make a life for his family, he must confront the ghosts of his past as he discovers that he could be deported from the only country he has ever called home.
    STARRING: Justin Chon, Alicia Vikander, Mark O'Brien, Emory Cohen

  2. Ruth Negga
    "Passing" (Netflix)

    DIRECTOR: Rebecca Hall
    SYNOPSIS: "Passing" follows the unexpected reunion of two high school friends, whose renewed acquaintance ignites a mutual obsession that threatens both of their carefully constructed realities.
    STARRING: Tessa Thompson, Ruth Negga, André Holland, Alexander Skarsgård, Bill Camp

  3. Martha Plimpton
    "Mass" (Bleecker Street)

    DIRECTOR: Fran Kranz
    SYNOPSIS: Aftermath of a violent tragedy that affects the lives of two couples in different ways.
    STARRING: Jason Isaacs, Martha Plimpton, Ann Dowd, Reed Birney

  4. Caitriona Balfe
    "Belfast" (Focus Features)††

    DIRECTOR: Kenneth Branagh
    SYNOPSIS: A young boy and his working class family experience the tumultuous late 1960s.
    STARRING: Judi Dench, Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Ciarán Hinds, Jude Hill

  5. Regina King
    "The Harder They Fall" (Netflix)††

    DIRECTOR: Jeymes Samuel
    SYNOPSIS: When an outlaw discovers his enemy is being released from prison, he reunites his gang to seek revenge in this Western.
    STARRING: Jonathan Majors, Idris Elba, Lakeith Stanfield, Regina King, Delroy Lindo, Zazie Beetz, RJ Cyler

LOUIS WAIN - Credit: Jaap Buitendijk
LOUIS WAIN - Credit: Jaap Buitendijk

Jaap Buitendijk

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. Vanessa Hudgens
    "Tick, Tick...Boom!" (Netflix)

    DIRECTOR: Lin-Manuel Miranda
    SYNOPSIS: The story of Jon, an aspiring theater composer who is waiting tables in New York City while writing Superbia - which he hopes will be the next great American musical and finally give him his big break.
    STARRING: Andrew Garfield, Bradley Whitford, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexandra Shipp, Judith Light, Joanna Adler, Noah Robbins, Robin de Jesus, Joshua Henry

  2. Amy Adams
    "Dear Evan Hansen" (Universal Pictures)

    DIRECTOR: Stephen Chobsky
    SYNOPSIS: Film adaptation of the Tony and Grammy Award-winning musical about Evan Hansen, a high school senior with Social Anxiety disorder and his journey of self-discovery and acceptance following the suicide of a fellow classmate.
    STARRING: Ben Platt, Kaitlyn Dever, Amandla Stenberg, Nik Dodani, Colton Ryan, Danny Pino, Julianne Moore, Amy Adams

  3. Toni Collette
    "Nightmare Alley" (Searchlight Pictures)

    DIRECTOR: Guillermo del Toro
    SYNOPSIS: An ambitious carny with a talent for manipulating people with a few well-chosen words hooks up with a female psychiatrist who is even more dangerous than he is.
    STARRING: Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara, Cate Blanchett, Toni Collette, David Strathairn, Willem Dafoe, Ron Perlman, Mary Steenburgen, Holt McCallany, Clifton Collins Jr, Richard Jenkins, Tim Blake Nelson

  4. Claire Foy
    "The Electrical Life of Louis Wain" (Amazon Studios)

    DIRECTOR: Will Sharpe
    SYNOPSIS: English artist Louis Wain rises to prominence at the end of the 19th century for his surreal cat paintings.
    STARRING: Benedict Cumberbatch, Claire Foy, Andrea Riseborough, Toby Jones, Sharon Rooney

  5. Marlee Matlin
    "CODA" (Apple TV Plus)

    DIRECTOR: Sian Heder
    SYNOPSIS: As a CODA (Child of Deaf Adults) Ruby is the only hearing person in her deaf family. When the family's fishing business is threatened, Ruby finds herself torn between pursuing her love of music and her fear of abandoning her parents.
    STARRING: Emilia Jones, Troy Kotsur, Daniel Durant, Marlee Matlin, John Fiore, Eugenio Derbez, Ferdia Walsh-Peelo, Amy Forsyth, Kevin Chapman

  6. Chanté Adams
    "A Journal for Jordan" (Sony Pictures)

    DIRECTOR: Denzel Washington
    SYNOPSIS: 1st Sgt. Charles Monroe King, before he is killed in action in Baghdad, authors a journal for his son intended to tell him how to live a decent life despite growing up without a father.
    STARRING: Michael B. Jordan, Chanté Adams

  7. Lily Rabe
    "The Tender Bar" (Amazon Studios)††

    DIRECTOR: George Clooney
    SYNOPSIS: A boy growing up on Long Island seeks out father figures among the patrons at his uncle's bar.
    STARRING: Ben Affleck, Tye Sheridan, Lily Rabe, Christopher Lloyd, Sondra James, Max Martini, Michael Braun, Matthew Delamater, Max Casella, Rhenzy Feliz, Ivan Leung, Briana Middleton, Daniel Ranieri

  8. Cate Blanchett
    "Nightmare Alley" (Searchlight Pictures)

    DIRECTOR: Guillermo del Toro
    SYNOPSIS: An ambitious carny with a talent for manipulating people with a few well-chosen words hooks up with a female psychiatrist who is even more dangerous than he is.
    STARRING: Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara, Cate Blanchett, Toni Collette, David Strathairn, Willem Dafoe, Ron Perlman, Mary Steenburgen, Holt McCallany, Clifton Collins Jr, Richard Jenkins, Tim Blake Nelson

  9. Cate Blanchett
    "Don't Look Up" (Netflix)

    DIRECTOR: Adam McKay
    SYNOPSIS: The story of two low-level astronomers, who must go on a giant media tour to warn mankind of an approaching comet that will destroy planet earth.
    STARRING: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Cate Blanchett, Rob Morgan, Meryl Streep, Jonah Hill, Timothée Chalamet, Ariana Grande, Himesh Patel, Matthew Perry, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, Chris Evans, Mark Rylance, Michael Chiklis

  10. Meryl Streep
    "Don't Look Up" (Netflix)

    DIRECTOR: Adam McKay
    SYNOPSIS: The story of two low-level astronomers, who must go on a giant media tour to warn mankind of an approaching comet that will destroy planet earth.
    STARRING: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Cate Blanchett, Rob Morgan, Meryl Streep, Jonah Hill, Timothée Chalamet, Ariana Grande, Himesh Patel, Matthew Perry, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, Chris Evans, Mark Rylance, Michael Chiklis

<img class="size-vertical wp-image-1235025924" src="https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/cruella-e1626982752453.jpg?w=1000&quot; alt="" width="1000" height="667" srcset="https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/cruella-e1626982752453.jpg 1000w, https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/cruella-e1626982752453.jpg?resize=150,100 150w, https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/cruella-e1626982752453.jpg?resize=300,200 300w" sizes="(min-width: 87.5rem) 1000px, (min-width: 78.75rem) 681px, (min-width: 48rem) 450px, (max-width: 48rem) 250px" />

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. Aunjanue Ellis
    "King Richard" (Warner Bros)

    DIRECTOR: Reinaldo Marcus Green
    SYNOPSIS: A look at how tennis superstars Venus and Serena Williams became who they are after the coaching from their father Richard Williams.
    STARRING: Will Smith, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Bernthal, Saniyya Sidney, Demi Singleton, Tony Goldwyn, Dylan McDermott

  2. Linh Dan Pham
    "Blue Bayou" (Focus Features)

    DIRECTOR: Justin Chon
    SYNOPSIS: As a Korean-American man raised in the Louisiana bayou works hard to make a life for his family, he must confront the ghosts of his past as he discovers that he could be deported from the only country he has ever called home.
    STARRING: Justin Chon, Alicia Vikander, Mark O'Brien, Emory Cohen

  3. Emma Thompson
    "Cruella" (Disney Plus)

    DIRECTOR: Craig Gillespie
    SYNOPSIS: A live-action prequel feature film following a young Cruella de Vil.
    STARRING: Emma Stone, Emma Thompson, Joel Fry, Paul Walter Hauser, Emily Beecham, Kirby Howell-Baptiste, Mark Strong

  4. Polly Draper
    "Shiva Baby" (Utopia)

    DIRECTOR: Emma Seligman
    SYNOPSIS: At a Jewish funeral service with her parents, a college student runs into her sugar daddy.
    STARRING: Rachel Sennott, Molly Gordon, Polly Draper, Danny Deferrari, Fred Melamed, Dianna Agron

  5. Julianne Nicholson
    "Blonde" (Netflix)

    DIRECTOR: Andrew Dominik
    SYNOPSIS
    : A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.

    STARRING: Ana de Armas, Adrien Brody, Bobby Cannavale, Julianne Nicholson

  6. Salma Hayek
    "House of Gucci" (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

    DIRECTOR: Ridley Scott
    SYNOPSIS: The story of how Patrizia Reggiani, the ex-wife of Maurizio Gucci, plotted to kill her husband, the grandson of renowned fashion designer Guccio Gucci.
    STARRING: Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Al Pacino, Salma Hayek, Jared Leto, Jack Huston, Jeremy Irons

  7. Florence Pugh
    "Black Widow" (Marvel Studios)

    DIRECTOR: Cate Shortland
    SYNOPSIS: A film about Natasha Romanoff in her quests between the films Civil War and Infinity War.
    STARRING: Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, David Harbour, O-T Fagbenle, Olga Kurylenko, William Hurt, Ray Winstone, Rachel Weisz

  8. Alana Haim
    "Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project" (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

    DIRECTOR: Paul Thomas Anderson
    SYNOPSIS: Set in 1970s San Fernando Valley, the film follows a high school student, who is also a successful child actor.
    STARRING: Bradley Cooper, Cooper Hoffman, Alana Haim, Skyler Gisondo, Benny Safdie

  9. Olivia Colman
    "Mothering Sunday" (Sony Pictures Classics)†/††

    DIRECTOR: Eva Husson
    SYNOPSIS: A maid living in post-World War I England secretly plans to meet with the man she loves before he leaves to marry another woman.
    STARRING: Odessa Young, Josh O'Connor, Olivia Colman, Colin Firth, Sope Dirisu, Glenda Jackson

  10. Jodie Comer
    "The Last Duel" (20th Century Studios)††

    DIRECTOR: Ridley Scott
    SYNOPSIS: King Charles VI declares that Knight Jean de Carrouges settle his dispute with his squire by challenging him to a duel.
    STARRING: Matt Damon, Adam Driver, Jodie Comer, Ben Affleck

Riley Keough (left) stars as &#x00201c;Stefani&#x00201d; and Taylour Paige (right) stars as &#x00201c;Zola&#x00201d; in director Janicza Bravo&#x002019;s ZOLA, an A24 Films release. Cr. Anna Kooris / A24 Films - Credit: Courtesy of Anna Kooris/A24
Riley Keough (left) stars as “Stefani” and Taylour Paige (right) stars as “Zola” in director Janicza Bravo’s ZOLA, an A24 Films release. Cr. Anna Kooris / A24 Films - Credit: Courtesy of Anna Kooris/A24

Courtesy of Anna Kooris/A24

MORE AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. Leslie Grace
    "In the Heights" (Warner Bros)

    DIRECTOR: Jon M. Chu
    SYNOPSIS: A film version of the Broadway musical in which Usnavi, a sympathetic New York bodega owner, saves every penny every day as he imagines and sings about a better life.
    STARRING: Anthony Ramos, Corey Hawkins, Leslie Grace, Melissa Barrera, Olga Merediz, Daphne Rubin-Vega, Gregory Diaz IV, Jimmy Smits

  2. Zazie Beetz
    "Nine Days" (Sony Pictures Classics)

    DIRECTOR: Edson Oda
    SYNOPSIS: A reclusive man conducts a series of interviews with human souls for a chance to be born.
    STARRING: Winston Duke, Zazie Beetz, Benedict Wong

  3. Gaby Hoffman
    "C'mon C'mon" (A24)

    DIRECTOR: Mike Mills
    SYNOPSIS
    : An artist embarks on a a cross-country trip with his young nephew.

    STARRING: Joaquin Phoenix, Gaby Hoffmann, Woody Norman, Jaboukie Young-White

  4. Riley Keough
    "Zola" (A24)

    DIRECTOR: Janicza Bravo
    SYNOPSIS: A stripper named Zola embarks on a wild road trip to Florida.
    STARRING: Taylour Paige, Riley Keough, Nicholas Braun, Ari'el Stachel, Colman Domingo

  5. Sally Hawkins
    "Spencer" (Neon)

    DIRECTOR: Pablo Larraín
    SYNOPSIS: During her Christmas holidays with the royal family at the Sandringham estate in Norfolk, England, Diana decides to leave her marriage to Prince Charles.
    STARRING: Kristen Stewart, Timothy Spall, Sally Hawkins, Sean Harris, Jack Farthing

  6. Rebecca Ferguson
    "Dune" (Warner Bros)

    DIRECTOR: Denis Villeneuve
    SYNOPSIS: Feature adaptation of Frank Herbert's science fiction novel, about the son of a noble family entrusted with the protection of the most valuable asset and most vital element in the galaxy.
    STARRING: Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Zendaya, David Dastmalchian, Chang Chen, Sharon Duncan-Brewster, Charlotte Rampling, Jason Momoa, Javier Bardem

  7. Anna Paquin
    "American Underdog" (Lionsgate)

    DIRECTOR: Andrew Erwin, Jon Erwin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of NFL MVP and Hall of Fame quarterback, Kurt Warner, who went from stocking shelves at a supermarket to becoming an American Football star.
    STARRING: Zachary Levi, Anna Paquin, Ser'Darius Blain, Adam Baldwin, Bruce McGill, Dennis Quaid

  8. Naomie Harris
    "Swan Song" (Apple TV Plus)

    DIRECTOR: Benjamin Cleary
    SYNOPSIS: When a loving husband and father is diagnosed with a terminal illness, he's presented with a controversial alternative solution to replace himself with a carbon copy clone.
    STARRING: Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, Glenn Close, Awkwafina, Adam Beach

  9. Michelle Yeoh
    "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings" (Marvel Studios)

    DIRECTOR: Destin Daniel Cretton
    SYNOPSIS: Shang-Chi, the master of unarmed weaponry based Kung Fu, is forced to confront his past after being drawn into the Ten Rings organization.
    STARRING: Simu Liu, Awkwafina, Tony Leung, Michelle Yeoh, Fala Chen, Meng'er Zhang, Florian Munteanu, Ronny Chieng

  10. Cherry Jones
    "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (Searchlight Pictures)

    DIRECTOR: Michael Showalter
    SYNOPSIS: An intimate look at the extraordinary rise, fall and redemption of televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker.
    STARRING: Jessica Chastain, Andrew Garfield, Cherry Jones, Vincent D'Onofrio

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

Annette - Credit: Courtesy of Amazon Studios
Annette - Credit: Courtesy of Amazon Studios

Courtesy of Amazon Studios

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS (UNRANKED):

Coming soon…

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actress)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Only two women have won this category, Dianne Wiest and Shelly Winters. Thelma Ritter has the most nominations at six, while Amy Adams is second with five. The oldest winner ever is Peggy Ashcroft (“A Passage to India”) at 77, while the oldest nominee is Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) at 87. Tatum O’Neal (“Paper Moon”) is both the youngest nominee and winner in history at 10.

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022

Best of Variety

Sign up for Variety’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting