Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Paul Raci and Glynn Turman Gain Significant Ground

Clayton Davis
·10-min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

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2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

UPDATED: Dec. 27, 2020

AWARDS COMMENTARY:
There are many factors to consider for Oscar nominations, such as a late-breaking surge, a slow down, or a failure to read the temperature on the Academy’s tastes. Of all the acting races, this category has the best shot of being made of any of the five contenders ranked in the top 25, with no exaggeration. How will the campaigns navigate this long-winded season? Expect noise for Leslie Odom Jr. to remain (at least for the moment) while “The Trial of the Chicago 7” aims to get two of its players in the race. Daniel Kaluuya has the potential to shake it all up substantially as Fred Hampton. Let’s see how it all shakes out.

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Daniel Kaluuya
    "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination
    ROLE: Fred Hampton

    DIRECTOR: Shaka King
    SYNOPSIS: The story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and his fateful betrayal by FBI informant William O'Neal.
    STARRING: Lakeith Stanfield, Daniel Kaluuya, Dominique Fishback, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Dominique Thorne, Algee Smith, Lil Rel Howery, Jermaine Fowler

  2. Leslie Odom, Jr.
    "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Sam Cooke

    DIRECTOR: Regina King
    SYNOPSIS: A fictional account of one incredible night in 1964, where four icons of activism, sports and music – Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Sam Cooke – gathered, discussing their roles in the civil rights movement and cultural upheaval of the ’60s.
    STARRING: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom, Jr.

  3. Sacha Baron Cohen
    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination (2006's "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan" in adapted screenplay)
    ROLE: Abbie Hoffman

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

  4. Stanley Tucci
    "Supernova" (Bleecker Street)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination
    ROLE: Tusker

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS
    : Sam and Tusker are traveling across England in their old RV to visit friends, family and places from their past. Since Tusker was diagnosed with dementia two years ago, their time together is the most important thing they have.
    STARRING
    : Colin Firth, Stanley Tucci, Pippa Haywood, Peter MacQueen, Nina Marlin

  5. Paul Raci
    "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Joe

    DIRECTOR: Darius Marder
    SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing.
    STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff

NEXT IN LINE:

  1. Glynn Turman
    "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Toledo

    DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe
    SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable "Mother of the Blues". Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson's play..
    STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman

  2. Chadwick Boseman
    "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Stormin' Norman

    DIRECTOR: Spike Lee
    SYNOPSIS: Four African American vets battle the forces of man and nature when they return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader and the gold fortune he helped them hide.
    STARRING: Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Jonathan Majors, Chadwick Boseman, Isiah Witlock, Jr,, Norm Lewis

  3. Bill Murray
    "On the Rocks" (A24/Apple TV Plus)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination
    ROLE: Felix

    DIRECTOR: Sofia Coppola
    SYNOPSIS: A young mother reconnects with her larger-than-life playboy father on an adventure through New York.
    STARRING: Rashida Jones, Bill Murray, Marlon Wayans, Jessica Henwick, Jenny Slate

  4. David Strathairn
    "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination
    ROLE: Dave

    DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao
    SYNOPSIS: After losing everything in the Great Recession, an old woman embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad.
    STARRING: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn, Linda May, Swankie, Bob Wells

  5. Alan S. Kim
    "Minari" (A24)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: David

    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. Frank Langella
    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination
    ROLE: Judge Julius Hoffman

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

  2. Yahya Abdul Mateen II
    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Bobby Seale

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

  3. Mark Rylance
    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win (2015's "Bridge of Spies")
    ROLE: William Kunstler

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

  4. Eddie Redmayne
    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 2 nominations, 1 win (2014's "The Theory of Everything)
    ROLE: Tom Hayden

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

  5. Aldis Hodge
    "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Sam Cooke

    DIRECTOR: Regina King
    SYNOPSIS: A fictional account of one incredible night in 1964, where four icons of activism, sports and music – Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Sam Cooke – gathered, discussing their roles in the civil rights movement and cultural upheaval of the ’60s.
    STARRING: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom, Jr.

  6. Charles Dance
    "Mank" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Herman J. Mankiewicz

    DIRECTOR: David Fincher
    SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
    STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton

  7. Billy Crystal
    "Standing Up, Falling Down" (Shout! Factor)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Marty

    DIRECTOR: Matt Ratner
    SYNOPSIS: The unlikely friendship that kindles between a struggling stand-up comedian from L.A., forced to move back home with his tail between his legs, and a tragically flawed, but charming and charismatic, alcoholic dermatologist.
    STARRING: Ben Schwarz, Billy Crystal, Grace Gummer

  8. Colman Domingo
    "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Cutler

    DIRECTOR: George C. Wolfe
    SYNOPSIS: Chicago, 1927. A recording session. Tensions rise between Ma Rainey, her ambitious horn player and the white management determined to control the uncontrollable "Mother of the Blues". Based on Pulitzer Prize winner August Wilson's play..
    STARRING: Chadwick Boseman, Dusan Brown, Jonny Coyne, Viola Davis, Colman Domingo, Taylour Paige, Michael Potts, Jeremy Shamos, Glynn Turman

  9. Jonathan Majors
    "Da 5 Bloods" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: David

    DIRECTOR: Spike Lee
    SYNOPSIS: Four African American vets battle the forces of man and nature when they return to Vietnam seeking the remains of their fallen squad leader and the gold fortune he helped them hide.
    STARRING: Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Jonathan Majors, Chadwick Boseman, Isiah Witlock, Jr,, Norm Lewis

  10. Jeremy Strong
    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Jerry Rubin

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

ALSO IN CONTENTION:

  1. Arliss Howard
    "Mank" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Louis B. Hayward

    DIRECTOR: David Fincher
    SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
    STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton

  2. Jared Leto
    "The Little Things" (HBO Max/Warner Bros.)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win (2013's "Dallas Buyers Club")
    ROLE: To be announced

    DIRECTOR: John Lee Hancock
    SYNOPSIS: Two cops track down a serial killer.
    STARRING: Denzel Washington, Jared Leto, Rami Malek

  3. Bo Burnham
    "Promising Young Woman" (Focus Features)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Ryan

    DIRECTOR: Emerald Fennell
    SYNOPSIS: A young woman, traumatized by a tragic event in her past, seeks out vengeance against those who cross her path.
    STARRING: Carey Mulligan, Bo Burnham, Laverne Cox, Molly Shannon, Clancy Brown, Jennifer Coolidge, Max Greenfield, Alison Brie, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Connie Britton, Chris Lowell, Adam Brody, Sam Richardson

  4. Diego Luna
    "Wander Darkly" (Lionsgate)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Matteo

    DIRECTOR: Tara Miele
    SYNOPSIS: New parents Adrienne and Matteo are forced to reckon with trauma amidst their troubled relationship. They must revisit the memories of their past and unravel haunting truths in order to face their uncertain future.
    STARRING: Sienna Miller, Diego Luna, Beth Grant, Vanessa Bayer

  5. Trevante Rhodes
    "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" (Paramount Pictures)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Jimmy Fletcher

    DIRECTOR: Lee Daniels
    SYNOPSIS: Follows Holiday during her career as she is targeted by the Federal Department of Narcotics with an undercover sting operation led by black Federal Agent Jimmy Fletcher, with whom she had a tumultuous affair.
    STARRING: Andra Day, Trevante Rhodes, Natasha Lyonne, Garrett Hedlund, Rob Morgan, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Tyler James Williams

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

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