Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – Telluride and Venice Present Frontrunners for the Academy

·4-min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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DRAFT>>>PRE-SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE

UPDATED: Sept 9, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Coming out the gate with his most personal and career topping achievement as a writer and director, Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” is a touching and moving portrait of childhood and family and the first movie I’ve seen this year that can be a best picture winner.

The Venice Film Festival is the starting pistol of the awards season, but that’s only been the case for the past five years or so. The Lido will unveil the first looks at technical juggernauts like “Dune,” from Warner Bros., and emotional period dramas like “The Power of the Dog,” from Netflix.

After debuting at Venice and Telluride, the raves for Stewart’s daring performance were fast and fierce from critics and festival attendees. Casual moviegoers, however, are going to have trouble engaging with the material. If Neon wants to have a fighting chance at a best picture nomination, it will need to up its efforts to notify the public, and voting groups, that this is not a biopic on the late princess. Using the term “fable,” as seen in the movie’s opening text, may not be doing the trick. In fact, as soon as the credits began rolling, a woman sitting behind me at the Telluride screening loudly said, “That was stupid. That was not Diana.”

If there’s a film that screened in the mountains at the Telluride Film Festival, and grew legs with attendees, it was Mike Mills’ “C’mon C’mon” starring Joaquin Phoenix, Gaby Hoffmann and Woody Norman. The A24 feature debuted at the famous Chuck Jones theater on the fest’s opening day, which has become a bit of a good luck charm since movies like “Lady Bird” (2017) and the best picture-winning “Moonlight” (2016) played in that coveted slot. No one initially discussed Mills’ follow-up to “20th Century Women,” which earned him an original screenplay nom — the film’s sole mention. But as the five-day festival continued, the black-and-white picturesque depiction on how we communicate with each other, become a festival favorite.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

THE POWER OF THE DOG: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH as PHIL BURBANK in THE POWER OF THE DOG. Cr. KIRSTY GRIFFIN/NETFLIX © 2021 - Credit: KIRSTY GRIFFIN/NETFLIX
THE POWER OF THE DOG: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH as PHIL BURBANK in THE POWER OF THE DOG. Cr. KIRSTY GRIFFIN/NETFLIX © 2021 - Credit: KIRSTY GRIFFIN/NETFLIX

KIRSTY GRIFFIN/NETFLIX

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Picture)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are "Ben-Hur," "Titanic" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are "All About Eve," "Titanic" and "La La Land" at 14. "La La Land" is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar "losers," meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977's "The Turning Point" and 1985's "The Color Purple" at 11 each.

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022

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