Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – Is It Time to Take ‘Drive My Car’ Seriously Outside of International Feature?

·10-min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB
Revisit the prediction archive of the 2021 season THE ARCHIVE
Link to television awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

More from Variety

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE

UPDATED: Dec 23, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: You have to go back to Mike Figgis’ “Leaving Las Vegas” to find a film that won the top prizes at the New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics Association awards, and didn’t get a best picture nomination. To add, Figgis’ film was in a year of five nominees, with the director himself landing a spot in the best director category, and his leading man Nicolas Cage, running away with the actor statuette.

With those facts on the table, why does it seem so difficult for pundits to accept that Japan’s entry for international feature, which was just named on the shortlist, could easily land in a field of 10? Is it the three-hour runtime? Is it they feel films like “A Hero” from Asghar Farhadi or “Parallel Mothers” from Pedro Almodovar will be easier sells? Perhaps it’s all of the above but it may be time to take the film, that’s distributed by Janus Films and Sideshow, seriously in the top category, and could ultimately pull in a few other crucial noms like adapted screenplay, and maybe even actor for Hidetoshi Nishijima.

SAG Awards voting began on Monday, Dec. 6, with the BAFTA longlist and Oscar shortlist starting on Dec. 10 but with different deadlines. This upcoming week will be the last one before all industry workers and voters venture off to their holiday homes and binge dozens of movies. We’ll get a sense of where everyone is soon enough.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Precursor Awards Leader: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2021-2022) – coming soon
Awards Season Calendar

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Jude Hill as Buddy is flanked by Judi Dench and Ciarán Hinds, who play his grandparents, in the Focus Features film. - Credit: Rob Youngson
Jude Hill as Buddy is flanked by Judi Dench and Ciarán Hinds, who play his grandparents, in the Focus Features film. - Credit: Rob Youngson

Rob Youngson

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

FILM

DISTRIBUTOR

PRODUCERS

1

“Belfast”

Focus Features

Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas

2

“The Power of the Dog”

Netflix

Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier, Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian

3

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Cale Boyter, Joe Caracciolo Jr, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve

4

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

Kristie Macosko Krieger, Kevin McCollum, Steven Spielberg

5

“Licorice Pizza”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, JoAnne Sellar, Daniel Lupi

6

“CODA”

Apple Original Films

Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger, Jerôme Seydoux

7

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith

8

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Apple Original Films/A24

Joel Coen, Robert Graf, Frances McDormand

9

Drive My Car

Janus Films/Sideshow

Tsuyoshi Gorô, Misaki Kawamura, Osamu Kubota, Sachio Matsushita, Yoshito Nakabe, Keiji Okumura, Jin Suzuki, Akihisa Yamamoto

10

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Adam McKay, Kevin Messick, Scott Stuber, Betsy Koch, Todd Schulman

NEXT IN LINE

11

“Being the Ricardos”

Amazon Studios

Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Steve Tisch

12

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro, Bradley Cooper

13

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Julie Oh

14

“The Lost Daughter”

Netflix

Charlie Dorfman, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Osnat Handelsman-Keren, Talia Kleinhendler

15

“No Time to Die”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli

16

“Spider-Man: No Way Home”

Sony Pictures

Kevin Feige, Amy Pascal

17

“The Harder They Fall”

Netflix

Lawrence Bender, Jay-Z, James Lassiter, Jeymes Samuel

18

“C’mon C’mon”

A24

Chelsea Barnard, Lila Yacoub, Andrea Longacre-White

19

“Flee”

Neon

Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen

20

“Parallel Mothers”

Sony Pictures Classics

Agustín Almodóvar, Pedro Almodóvar

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

21

“A Hero”

Amazon Studios

Asghar Farhadi, Alexandre Mallet-Guy

22

“Spencer”

Neon and Topic Studios

Maren Ade, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski, Juan de Dios Larraín, Pablo Larraín, Paul Webster

23

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Ridley Scott, Giannina Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Mark Huffam

24

“Cyrano”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Guy Heeley

25

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

26

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Jennifer Fox, Nicole Holofcener, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck

27

“Red Rocket”

A24

Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, Alex Saks, Shih-Ching Tsou

28

“Encanto”

Walt Disney Pictures

Clark Spencer, Yvett Merino

29

“Passing”

Netflix

Nina Yang Bongiovi, Rebecca Hall, Margot Hand, Forest Whitaker

30

“The Tender Bar”

Amazon Studios

George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Ted Hope

UNRANKED LISTING

“12 Mighty Orphans”

Sony Pictures Classics

Houston Hill, Angelique De Luca, Michael De Luca, Brinton Bryan

“7 Prisoners”

Netflix

Ramin Bahrani, Fernando Meirelles

“A Chiara”

Neon

Jon Coplon, Ryan Zacarias, Paolo Carpignano

“A Journal for Jordan”

Sony Pictures

Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Michael B. Jordan, Jason Blumenthal, Steve Tisch

“A Quiet Place Part II”

Paramount Pictures

Michael Bay, Andrew Form, Brad Fuller, John Krasinski

“Ailey”

Neon

Jamila Wignot, Lauren DeFilippo

“American Underdog”

Lionsgate

Kevin Downes, Andrew Erwin, Jon Erwin

“Annette”

Amazon Studios

Charles Gillibert, Paul-Dominique Win Vacharasinthu, Adam Driver

“Antlers”

Searchlight Pictures

Guillermo del Toro, David S. Goyer, J. Miles Dale

“Army of the Dead”

Netflix

Deborah Snyder, Wesley Coller, Zack Snyder

“Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn”

Magnolia Pictures

Ada Solomon

“Bergman Island”

IFC Films

Charles Gillibert, Erik Hemmendorff, Rodrigo Teixeira, Lisa Widén

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Kevin Feige

“Blue Bayou”

Focus Features

Charles D. King, Kim Roth, Poppy Hanks, Justin Chon

“Bruised”

Netflix

Berry, Basil Iwanyk, Brad Feinstein, Guymon Casady, Linda Gottlieb, Erica Lee, Gillian G. Hormel, Paris Kassidokosta-Latsis,Terry Douglas

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Kevin Misher, Eddie Murphy

“Compartment No. 6”

Sony Pictures Classics

Emilia Haukka, Jussi Rantamäki

“Cruella”

Walt Disney Pictures

Andrew Gunn, Marc Platt, Kristin Burr

“Cry Macho”

Warner Bros

Clint Eastwood, Albert S. Ruddy, Tim Moore, Jessica Meier

“Cusp”

Showtime

David Chase, Lawrence Konner, Nicole Lambert

“Dave Chappelle: This Time, This Place”

No U.S. Distribution

Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert

“Dream Horse”

Bleecker Street

Katherine Butler, Tracy O’Riordan

“Encounter”

Amazon Studios

Dimitri Doganis, Piers Vellacott, Derrin Schlesinger

“Eternals”

Marvel Studios

Kevin Feige, Nate Moore

“Everybody’s Talking About Jamie”

Amazon Studios

Adam Ackland, Ed Clarke, Leah Clarke, Guy Heeley

“F9: The Fast Saga”

Universal Pictures

Neal H. Moritz, Vin Diesel, Justin Lin, Jeffrey Kirschenbaum, Joe Roth, Clayton Townsend, Samantha Vincent

“Finch”

Apple Original Films

Craig Luck, Daniel Maze, Kevin Misher, Ivor Powell, Jack Rapke, Miguel Sapochnik, Robert Zemeckis

“Flag Day”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

William Horberg, Jon Kilik, Fernando Sulichin

“Free Guy”

20th Century Studios

Ryan Reynolds, Shawn Levy, Sarah Schechter, Greg Berlanti, Adam Kolbrenner

“Ghostbusters: Afterlife”

Sony Pictures

Ivan Reitman

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Quiara Alegría Hudes, Scott Sanders, Anthony Bregman, Mara Jacobs

“India Sweets and Spices”

Bleecker Street

Naomi Despres, John Penotti, Gigi Pritzker

“Jockey”

Sony Pictures Classics

Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Nancy Schafer

“John and the Hole”

IFC Films

Michael Bowes, Nicolás Giacobone, Alex Orlovsky, Elika Portnoy

“Lamb”

A24

Hrönn Kristinsdóttir, Sara Nassim, Piodor Gustafsson, Erik Rydell, Klaudia Śmieja-Rostworowska, Jan Naszewski, Zuzanna Hencz, Marcin Drabiński, Jon Mankell

“Language Lessons”

Shout! Studios

Mel Eslyn

“Last Night in Soho”

Focus Features

Nira Park, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Edgar Wright

“Luca”

Pixar

Andrea Warren

“Mass”

Bleecker Street

Fran Kranz, Dylan Matlock, Casey Wilder Mott, J.P. Ouellette

“Mogul Mowgli”

Strand Releasing

Riz Ahmed, Thomas Benski, Bennett McGhee, Michael Peay

“Mothering Sunday”

Sony Pictures Classics

Elizabeth Karlsen, Stephen Woolley

“Nine Days”

Sony Pictures Classics

Jason Michael Berman, Mette-Marie Kongsved, Laura Tunstall, Datari Turner

“No Sudden Move”

Warner Bros

Casey Silver

“Old Henry”

Shout! Studios

Shannon Houchins, Mike Hagerty

“Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre”

STXfilms

Ivan Atkinson, Bill Block, Steven Chasman, Jason Statham

“Petite Maman”

Neon

Bénédicte Couvreur

“Pig”

Neon

Vanessa Block, Dimitra Tsingou, Joseph Restaino, Nicolas Cage, Steve Tisch, David Carrico, Adam Paulsen, Thomas Benski, Ben Giladi, Dori Rath

“Plan B”

Hulu

Ryan Bennett, Jeremy Garelick, Josh Heald, Dina Hillier, Jon Hurwitz, Mickey Liddell, Matt Lottman, Will Phelps, Hayden Schlossberg, Pete Shilaimon

“Raya and the Last Dragon”

Walt Disney Pictures

Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer

“Respect”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Harvey Mason Jr., Scott Bernstein, Jonathan Glickman, Stacey Sher

“Saint Maud”

A24

Andrea Cornwell, Oliver Kassman

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Kevin Feige, Jonathan Schwartz

“Shiva Baby”

Utopia

Kieran Altmann, Katie Schiller, Lizzie Shapiro

“Sing 2”

Illumination Animation / Universal Pictures

Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy

“Spirit Untamed”

Dreamworks Animation

Karen Foster

“Stillwater”

Focus Features

Tom McCarthy, Jonathan King, Liza Chasin, Steve Golin

“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”

Hulu/Searchlight Pictures

David Dinerstein, Robert Fyvolent, Joseph Patel

“Swan Song”

Apple Original Films

Mahershala Ali, Rebecca Bourke, Jonathan King, Jacob Perlin, Adam Shulman, Mimi Valdes

“Swan Song”

Magnolia Pictures

Todd Stephens, Eric Eisenbrey, Tim Kaltenecker, Rhet Topham, Stephen Israel

“The Card Counter”

Focus Features

Braxton Pope, Lauren Mann, David Wulf

“The Colour Room”

Sky Cinema

Thembisa Cochrane, Georgie Paget

“The Courier”

Lionsgate

Adam Ackland, Ben Browning, Ben Pugh, Rory Aitken

“The Electrical Life of Louis Wain”

Amazon Studios

Guy Heeley, Ed Clarke, Adam Ackland, Leah Clarke

“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

Searchlight Pictures

Jessica Chastain, Kelly Carmichael, Rachel Shane, Gigi Pritzker

“The Green Knight”

A24

Toby Halbrooks, James M. Johnston, David Lowery, Tim Headington, Theresa Steele Page

“The Guilty”

Netflix

Jake Gyllenhaal, Riva Marker, David Litvak, Gary Michael Walters, David Haring, Michel Litvak, Svetlana Metkina, Antoine Fuqua, Scott Greenberg, Kat Samick

“The Hand of God”

Netflix

Paolo Sorrentino, Lorenzo Mieli

“The Humans”

A24/Showtime

Louise Lovegrove, Stephen Karam

“The Killing of Two Lovers”

Neon

Robert Machoian, Clayne Crawford, Scott Christopherson

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Basil Iwanyk, Brad Feinstein, Guymon Casady, Linda Gottlieb, Erica Lee

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

James McTeigue, Lana Wachowski, Grant Hill

“The Mitchells vs The Machines”

Netflix/Sony Pictures Animation

Kurt Albrecht, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller

“The Novice”

IFC Films

Ryan Hawkins, Steven Sims, Zack Zucker, Kari Holland

“The Rescue”

National Geographic

Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, John Battsek, PJ. van Sandwijk

“The Souvenir Part II”

A24

Ed Guiney, Emma Norton, Andrew Lowe, Joanna Hogg, Luke Schiller

“The Sparks Brothers”

Focus Features

Casey Silver

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Charles Roven, Peter Safran

“The Tomorrow War”

Amazon Studios

David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, Don Granger, Jules Daly, David S. Goyer, Adam Kolbrenner

“The Velvet Underground”

Apple Original Films

Todd Haynes, Christine Vachon, Julie Goldman, Carolyn Hepburn, Christopher Clements, David Blackman

“The Worst Person in the World”

Neon

Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Thomas Robsahm

“Titane”

Neon

Jean-Christophe Reymond

“Together Together”

Bleecker Street

Anthony Brandonisio, Daniela Taplin Lundberg, Tim Headington

“Together”

Bleecker Street

Guy Heeley, Sonia Friedman

“Val”

Amazon Studios

Val Kilmer, Leo Scott, Ting Poo, Andrew Fried, Dane Lillegard, Jordan Wynn, Ali Alborzi, Brad Koepenick

“Vivo”

Netflix

Lisa Stewart, Michelle L.M. Wong, Rich Moore

“Werewolves Within”

IFC Films

Sam Richardson, Jason Altman, Margaret Boykin, Andrew Lieberman, Natalie Metzger, Matt Miller, Benjamin Wiessner

“Zola”

A24

Christine Vachon, David Hinojosa, Gia Walsh, Kara Baker, Vince Jolivette, Elizabeth Haggard, Dave Franco

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

Best of Variety

Sign up for Variety’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting