Oscars Predictions: Best Live Action Short – Riz Ahmed and a Student Academy Award Winner Lead the Field

·3-min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB
Revisit the prediction archive of the 2021 season THE ARCHIVE
Link to television awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

More from Variety

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

UPDATED: Dec 23, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: It always helps to have one of the best working actors today with a prominent role in your short film to garner attention (see: Oscar Isaac’s turn in last year’s nominee “The Letter Room”). That’s the case with Oscar-nominee Riz Ahmed, who stars and co-wrote “The Long Goodbye” from Aneil Karia.

The shorts also love the birth of an artist, and Phumi Morare’s “When the Sun Sets,” which is getting a palpable push from distributor HBO, is a Student Academy Award winner. It continues and highlights the Academy’s goals of focusing on the talent pool of Hollywood. That’s going to carry weight when voters fill out their ballots.

The rest of the contenders are up-in-the-air and it largely depends on what they respond to in the next few weeks as omicron cancels events and strikes fear into the industry. However, the New Yorker has a significant presence from the announced shortlists with “Les Grandes Claques” and “Under the Heavens,” one of which is bound to break through.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Precursor Awards Leader: None
Awards Season Calendar

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

.
.

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

FILM

DISTRIBUTOR

DIRECTOR

1

“The Long Goodbye”

WePresent

Aniel Karia

2

“When the Sun Sets”

HBO

Phumi Morare

3

“Under the Heavens”

The New Yorker

Gustavo Milan

4

“Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”

Salaud Morisset

Maria Brendle

5

“Censor of Dreams”

Salaud Morisset

Raphaël Rodriguez, Léo Berne

NEXT IN LINE

6

“You’re Dead Helen”

Daylight Films and Formosa Productions

Michiel Blanchart

7

“Frimas”

H264 Distribution

Marianne Farley

8

“The Criminals”

Lights On

Serhat Karaaslan

9

“Tala’vision”

Filmakademie Baden-Württemberg

Murad Abu Eisheh

10

“Distances”

Cine Comunidad de Madrid

Susan Bejar

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

11

“The Dress”

DOBRO, MIŁO and GŁOSNO

Tadeusz Lysiak

12

“Les Grandes Claques”

The New Yorker

Annie St. Pierre

13

“Please Hold”

Scavenger Entertainment

KD Davila

14

“Stenofonen”

M&M Productions

Nicolaj Kopernikus

15

“On My Mind”

Benzona Film

Martin Strange-Hansen

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

Best of Variety

Sign up for Variety’s Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting