Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Kristen Stewart Holding Strong on Top But Olivia Colman Buzz Lurks

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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ACTRESS

UPDATED: Oct 21, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: After debuting at Venice and Telluride, the raves for Kristen Stewart’s daring performance were fast and fierce from critics and festival attendees. Casual moviegoers, however, are going to have trouble engaging with the material. If Neon wants to have a fighting chance at a best picture nomination, it will need to up its efforts to notify the public, and voting groups, that this is not a biopic on the late princess. If Stewart hopes to win best actress, more nominations will be needed for the film. Charlize Theron is the last winner, who was on her first nomination, to be the sole nominee for her movie (“Monster” in 2004).

After Renée Zellweger (“Judy”), Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) and Charlize Theron (“Monster”) won Oscars for their impressively altered looks, Jessica Chastain could be on a similar path for her role as the media-loving televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker in Michael Showalter’s “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” Following a world bow at the Toronto International Film Festival, the Searchlight Pictures dramedy, echoing previous Oscar embraces such as “I, Tonya,” could make Chastain a contender for her third nomination, and could bring in a few other notices if campaigned correctly.

Frances McDormand, who stars as Lady Macbeth, made history last year as the first woman to be nominated for producing and acting in the same year for “Nomadland,” winning her third and fourth Oscars respectively. She could take two awards for “Macbeth” as well, which would put her in the company of Katharine Hepburn, the only actor to win four acting Oscars, all in lead.

Some surprise names that will be submitted in this field include Marion Cotillard (“Annette”) and Margot Robbie (“The Suicide Squad”) while Melissa Barrera (“In the Heights”) was shifted to supporting alongside her two counterparts, Leslie Grace and Olga Merediz.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)

<img class="size-vertical wp-image-1235070177" src="https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Tragedy-of-Macbeth-2.jpg?w=1024&quot; alt=" - Credit: A24" width="1024" height="486" srcset="https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Tragedy-of-Macbeth-2.jpg 1926w, https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Tragedy-of-Macbeth-2.jpg?resize=150,71 150w, https://variety.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Tragedy-of-Macbeth-2.jpg?resize=300,142 300w" sizes="(min-width: 87.5rem) 1000px, (min-width: 78.75rem) 681px, (min-width: 48rem) 450px, (max-width: 48rem) 250px" />A24

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

RANK

ACTRESS

FILM

STUDIO

1

Kristen Stewart

Spencer

Neon

2

Jessica Chastain

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Searchlight Pictures

3

Olivia Colman

The Lost Daughter

Netflix

4

Frances McDormand

The Tragedy of Macbeth

A24/Apple Original Films

5

Penélope Cruz

Parallel Mothers

Sony Pictures Classics

NEXT IN LINE

6

Lady Gaga

House of Gucci

United Artists Releasing/MGM

7

Nicole Kidman

Being the Ricardos

Amazon Studios

8

Rooney Mara*

Nightmare Alley

Searchlight Pictures

9

Jennifer Hudson

Respect

United Artists Releasing/MGM

10

Rachel Zegler

West Side Story

20th Century Studios

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

11

Renate Reinsve

The Worst Person in the World

Neon

12

Emilia Jones

CODA

Apple Original Films

13

Alana Haim

Licorice Pizza

United Artists Releasing/MGM

14

Tessa Thompson

Passing

Netflix

15

Halle Berry

Bruised

Netflix

16

Jennifer Lawrence

Don’t Look Up

Netflix

17

Rachel Sennott

Shiva Baby

Utopia

18

Jodie Comer

The Last Duel

20th Century Studios

19

Chanté Adams

A Journal for Jordan

Sony Pictures

20

Vicky Krieps

Bergman Island

IFC Films

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Sandra Bullock

The Unforgivable

Netflix

22

Zazie Beetz

The Harder They Fall

Netflix

23

Marion Cotillard

Annette

Amazon Studios

24

Agatha Rousselle

Titane

Neon

25

Natalie Morales

Language Lessons

Shout! Studios

26

Helen Mirren

The Duke

Sony Pictures Classics

27

Emily Blunt

A Quiet Place Part II

Paramount Pictures

28

Tilda Swinton

Memoria

Neon

29

Odessa Young

Mothering Sunday

Sony Pictures Classics

30

Scarlett Johansson

Black Widow

Marvel Studios

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

31

Isabelle Fuhrman

The Novice

IFC Films

32

Emma Stone

Cruella

Disney Plus

33

Tilda Swinton

The Souvenir Part II

A24

34

Thomasin McKenzie

Last Night in Soho

Focus Features

35

Jessica Barden

Holler

IFC Films

36

Taylour Paige

Zola

A24

37

Jennifer Ehle

John and the Hole

IFC Films

38

Millicient Simmonds

A Quiet Place Part II

Paramount Pictures

40

Melissa McCarthy

The Starling

Netflix

41

Gemma Chan*

Eternals

Marvel Studios

UNRANKED LISTING

Alicia Vikander*

Blue Bayou

Focus Features

Alysha Hart

Mogul Mowgli

Strand Releasing

Camila Cabello

Cinderella

Amazon Studios

Camille Cottin

Stillwater

Focus Features

Carrie-Anne Moss

The Matrix: Resurrections

Warner Bros

Cate Blanchett*

Nightmare Alley

Searchlight Pictures

Danielle MacDonald

Falling for Figaro

IFC Films

Grace Van Patten

Mayday

Magnolia Pictures

Haley Bennett*

Cyrano

United Artists Releasing/MGM

Jodie Comer*

Free Guy

20th Century Studios

Joséphine Sanz

Petite Maman

Neon

Kaitlyn Dever

Dear Evan Hansen

Universal Pictures

Keri Russell

Antlers

Searchlight Pictures

Krisha Fairchild

Freeland

Dark Star Pictures

Margot Robbie

The Suicide Squad

Warner Bros

Mila Kunis

Four Good Days

Vertical Entertainment

Natalie Morales

Plan B

Hulu

Patti Harrison

Together Together

Bleecker Street

Paula Beer

Undine

IFC Films

Sharon Horgan

Together

Bleecker Street

Sofia Kappel

Pleasure

A24

Sophia Ali

India Sweets and Spices

Bleecker Street

Taryn Manning

Karen

Quiver

Toni Collette

Dream Horse

Bleecker Street

Virginie Efira

Benedetta

IFC Films

Yvonne Strahovski

The Tomorrow War

Amazon Studios

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Actress)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Katharine Hepburn has the most awards in this category with four. In contrast, 13 women have won two each – Ingrid Bergman, Bette Davis, Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Jodie Foster, Olivia de Havilland, Glenda Jackson, Vivien Leigh, Frances McDormand, Luise Rainer, Meryl Streep, Hilary Swank and Elizabeth Taylor. Streep has the most nominations in this category with 17, while Hepburn has 12, and Davis has 10. The oldest winner is Jessica Tandy at 80 for “Driving Miss Daisy,” The oldest nominee is Emmanuelle Riva at 85 for “Amour.” The youngest winner at 21 is Marlee Matlin (“Children of a Lesser God”), and the youngest nominee at 9 is Quvenzhané Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”).

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022

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