Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture – ‘Oppenheimer’ Poised to be Most Awarded Movie Since ‘Slumdog Millionaire’

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Picture – ‘Oppenheimer’ Poised to be Most Awarded Movie Since ‘Slumdog Millionaire’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

The Zone of Interest
The Zone of Interest

Weekly Commentary (Updated March 7, 2024): Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster biopic “Oppenheimer,” narrating the saga of the father of the atomic bomb, is poised to sweep the Oscars. Having clinched every major guild and industry accolade – BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, DGA, PGA, and SAG – it’s the first movie to have a “perfect season” since “Argo” (2012). In a near-flawless Oscar extravaganza, the Universal Pictures drama might match the record set by 1961’s “West Side Story,” which claimed a whopping 10 awards, the second-most in history. Variety is projecting eight.

Nolan and his producing partner Emma Thomas, the powerhouse couple behind “Oppenheimer,” are expected to be the second married duo to win best picture, with “Driving Miss Daisy” producers Richard D. Zanuck and Lili Fini Zanuck as the first. Moreover, with global box office tallying just shy of $1 billion, it would become the third-highest-grossing film to win the top Oscar, trailing only “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” in addition to the highest-grossing film to earn acting awards for its stars, Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr.

When there’s such a dominating frontrunner, looking at the “upset pick,” is often unneeded, but if I were guessing, I imagine Jonathan Glazer’s holocaust drama “The Zone of Interest” perhaps received the second-most No. 1 votes on ballots behind “Oppenheimer,” but who knows for sure? (spoiler alert: PriceWaterHouseCooper does)

Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan)
Could Win: “The Zone of Interest” (James Wilson)
Should Win: “American Fiction” (Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson)
Should have been here: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg) and “Origin” (Ava DuVernay and Paul Garnes)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.


And the Nominees Are:


  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan

  2. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
    James Wilson

  3. American Fiction” (MGM)
    Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson

  4. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone

  5. The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    Mark Johnson

  6. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion

  7. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner

  8. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi

  9. Past Lives” (A24)
    David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler

  10. Maestro” (Netflix)
    Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger


Eligible Titles (Alphabetized)**


  • “About Dry Grasses”

  • “Afire”

  • “Air”

  • “All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt”

  • “All of Us Strangers”

  • “Altered Perceptions”

  • “The Amazing Maurice”

  • “America, We Salute the Military”

  • “American Fiction”

  • “American Symphony”

  • “America’s Family”

  • “Anatomy of a Fall”

  • “Anselm”

  • “Anyone but You”

  • “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom”

  • “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.”

  • “Aristotle and Dante Discover the Secrets of the Universe”

  • “Asteroid City”

  • “At the Gates”

  • “Baby Ruby”

  • “Bad Press”

  • “Barbie”

  • “The Beanie Bubble”

  • “Beau Is Afraid”

  • “Before the Sunset”

  • “Bella!”

  • “Beyond Utopia”

  • “Big George Foreman”

  • “Biosphere”

  • “BlackBerry”

  • “The Blackening”

  • “Blue Beetle”

  • “Blue Jean”

  • “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”

  • “Book Club: The Next Chapter”

  • “Bottoms”

  • “The Boy and the Heron”

  • “The Boys in the Boat”

  • “Brother”

  • “The Burial”

  • “Candy Cane Lane”

  • “Carlos”

  • “Carmen”

  • “Cassandro”

  • “Champions”

  • “Chevalier”

  • “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”

  • “Cocaine Bear”

  • “The Color Purple”

  • “A Compassionate Spy”

  • “Corner Office”

  • “Country of Blind”

  • “Creation of the Gods I: Kingdom of Storms”

  • “Creed III”

  • “Dalíland”

  • “Deep Sea”

  • “The Deepest Breath”

  • “Dicks: The Musical”

  • “The Disappearance of Shere Hite”

  • “Dream Scenario”

  • “Dreamin’ Wild”

  • “Drift”

  • “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor among Thieves”

  • “Earth Mama”

  • “The Eight Mountains”

  • “80 for Brady”

  • “Eileen”

  • “El Conde”

  • “Elemental”

  • “The End We Start From”

  • “Enys Men”

  • “The Equalizer 3”

  • “The Eternal Memory”

  • “Every Body”

  • “Evil Dead Rise”

  • “The Exorcist: Believer”

  • “Fair Play”

  • “Fallen Leaves”

  • “Fast X”

  • “Ferrari”

  • “Fingernails”

  • “Five Nights at Freddy’s”

  • “Flamin’ Hot”

  • “The Flash”

  • “Flora and Son”

  • “Foe”

  • “For the Animals”

  • “Fremont”

  • “Freud’s Last Session”

  • “Godzilla Minus One”

  • “Golda”

  • “Golden Vanity”

  • “Good Grief”

  • “A Good Person”

  • “Gran Turismo”

  • “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”

  • “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant”

  • “A Haunting in Venice”

  • “Heart of Stone”

  • “The Holdovers”

  • “House Party”

  • “How to Blow Up a Pipeline”

  • “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes”

  • “Immediate Family”

  • “In Viaggio: The Travels of Pope Francis”

  • “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”

  • “Infinity Pool”

  • “Inside”

  • “The Inventor”

  • “Invisible Beauty”

  • “The Iron Claw”

  • “It Ain’t Over”

  • “It Lives Inside”

  • “Jacob the Baker”

  • “Joan Baez I Am a Noise”

  • “John Wick: Chapter 4”

  • “Journey to Bethlehem”

  • “Joy Ride”

  • “Jules”

  • “The Killer”

  • “Killers of the Flower Moon”

  • “King Coal”

  • “The Kitchen”

  • “Knock at the Cabin”

  • “Kokomo City”

  • “La Chimera”

  • “La Syndicaliste”

  • “Lakota Nation vs. United States”

  • “Landscape with Invisible Hand”

  • “The Last Voyage of the Demeter”

  • “The League”

  • “Leave the World Behind”

  • “Leo”

  • “The Lesson”

  • “Let Us Make Eve”

  • “The Little Mermaid”

  • “Little Richard: I Am Everything”

  • “Lonesome Soldier”

  • “Lost Cos”

  • “Love Again”

  • “Maestro”

  • “Mafia Mamma”

  • “Magic Mike’s Last Dance”

  • “The Magician’s Elephant”

  • “Master Gardener”

  • “May December”

  • “Meg 2: The Trench”

  • “M3gan”

  • “Memory”

  • “Migration”

  • “A Million Miles Away”

  • “The Miracle Club”

  • “Miranda’s Victim”

  • “The Mission”

  • “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”

  • “Mr. Jimmy”

  • “Monica”

  • “Monster”

  • “Moving On”

  • “Mutt”

  • “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3”

  • “My Love Affair with Marriage”

  • “Napoleon”

  • “The Next Big Hit”

  • “Next Goal Wins”

  • “Nimona”

  • “No Hard Feelings”

  • “The Nun II”

  • “Nyad”

  • “Occupied City”

  • “Of an Age”

  • “Once within a Time”

  • “Online Blues”

  • “Oppenheimer”

  • “Origin”

  • “Orlando, My Political Biography”

  • “Our Father, the Devil”

  • “Our Son”

  • “Pain Hustlers”

  • “Palm Trees and Power Lines”

  • “Passages”

  • “Past Lives”

  • “Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie”

  • “The Peasants”

  • “Perfect Days”

  • “The Persian Version”

  • “The Pigeon Tunnel”

  • “The Pod Generation”

  • “Polite Society”

  • “Poor Things”

  • “Priscilla”

  • “The Promised Land”

  • “R.M.N.”

  • “Radical”

  • “Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire”

  • “Renfield”

  • “Reptile”

  • “The Road Dog”

  • “Robot Dreams”

  • “Rose”

  • “The Royal Hotel”

  • “Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken”

  • “Rustin”

  • “Saltburn”

  • “Sanctuary”

  • “Saving Ana”

  • “Scrapper”

  • “Scream VI”

  • “Sharper”

  • “Shayda”

  • “Shazam! Fury of the Gods”

  • “She Came to Me”

  • “Shelter in Solitude”

  • “Shortcomings”

  • “Showing Up”

  • “Silver Dollar Road”

  • “Simón”

  • “Sitting in Bars with Cake”

  • “65”

  • “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood”

  • “Smoking Causes Coughing”

  • “Society of the Snow”

  • “Somewhere in Queens”

  • “Sound of Freedom”

  • “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

  • “Spinning Gold”

  • “Stamped from the Beginning”

  • “The Starling Girl”

  • “Statica”

  • “Stephen Curry: Underrated”

  • “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”

  • “Story Ave”

  • “Strays”

  • “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”

  • “Suzume”

  • “Sweetwater”

  • “Talk to Me”

  • “The Taste of Things”

  • “The Teachers’ Lounge”

  • “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”

  • “Tetris”

  • “Theater Camp”

  • “They Cloned Tyrone”

  • “32 Sounds”

  • “A Thousand and One”

  • “Tori and Lokita”

  • “Tótem”

  • “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts”

  • “Trolls Band Together”

  • “12th Fail”

  • “2018 Everyone Is a Hero”

  • “Uncharitable”

  • “The Unknown Country”

  • “Walid”

  • “War Pony”

  • “We Might as Well Be Dead”

  • “What Happens Later”

  • “When You Finish Saving the World”

  • “Wildflower”

  • “The Wind & the Reckoning”

  • “Wish”

  • “Wonka”

  • “Yoshiki Under the Sky”

  • “You Hurt My Feelings”

  • “The Zone of Interest”

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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