Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Sept. 30, 2022
More from Variety
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The most progressive (coolest?) branch of the Academy has long been the Writers Branch. They’ve shown a willingness to embrace films that we normally don’t expect the membership-at-large to do such as “Logan” (2017). Hoping they remain open to cannibal teenagers, because “Bones & All” is well worth considering for its taut and beautiful story, featuring incredible turns from Taylor Russell, Timothée Chalamet and Mark Rylance.
It also may be a no-brainer for AMPAS to fall for “Living” and its scribe Kazuo Ishiguro, one of the most acclaimed and beloved authors, who won the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2017. If Bill Nighy is on-board for his first Oscar run in best actor, watch out for Ishiguro, who many know and love because of the independent feature “The Saddest Music in the World” (2003).
Mia Goth is the talk of social media for her work in A24’s “Pearl,” boasting a nine-minute monologue that has people buzzing. We’ve all seen how the Academy treats horror films, seamlessly passing over films like “It Follows” and “Hereditary” despite critical acclaim. A spot for Goth in best actress could be too high a bar to clear, but could the Writers Branch find themselves enamored enough with the writing and recognize it in adapted screenplay? Since its predecessor “X” was released earlier in the year, it’s unknown if it automatically gets deemed “adapted” as other sequels or spin-offs tend to do like “Glass Onion” this year. However, it’s a way to nominate Goth, who is a co-writer with director Ti West.
Let the idea simmer for a bit.
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Siân Heder
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
Best of Variety