Final Oscars Predictions: Adapted Screenplay – Women Talk, and They’re Voting for Sarah Polley
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023
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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay
Another tight race. Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking” tacked on two crucial mentions from the WGA and USC Scripter Awards last weekend in adapted screenplay, besting the only Oscar-nominated film, “Living” by Kazuo Ishiguro (“Top Gun: Maverick” withdrew its nomination from Scripter). Did Polley’s film do enough to stay ahead of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which despite cleaning up at the BAFTA Awards, was absent from all the guilds (some due to ineligibility, others due to outright snub)?
Talking with various awards voters, and campaign teams, there seems to be a large groundswell of support from many female members of the Academy that are getting behind “Women Talking,” as it represents the only film directed by a woman to be recognized in best picture.
Nevertheless, it was surprising to hear how many members were checking the box for Sony Pictures Classics’ “Living,” the remake of Akira Kirosawa’s “Ikiru,” penned by Nobel Prize winner Kazuo Ishiguro. It’s also the only nominated movie with an acting nomination (Bill Nighy in best actor).
Pundits have often seen the screenplay prizes as a consolation for a movie that isn’t winning best picture. Look at wins for “Jojo Rabbit” (2019), “BlacKkKlansman” (2018), “Call Me by Your Name” (2017) and “The Imitation Game” (2014). However, films rarely win screenplay without an acting nom unless it’s winning best picture. That was seen with “Gods and Monsters” (1998) winning over “The Thin Red Line” and “Sling Blade” (1996) besting best picture winner “The English Patient,” so there’s precedent for such an upset.
The prediction is…women talk!
Will Win: “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Sarah Polley
Could Win: “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Kazuo Ishiguro
Should Win: “Women Talking”
Should have been here: “Bones and All” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – David Kajganich
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
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2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.
2022 category winner: "CODA" (Apple Original Films) - Siân Heder
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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