Oscar Predictions: Best Actress – A Potential Theory on Michelle Williams’ SAG Snub
Clayton Davis
·8-min read
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The most shocking omissions from the SAG noms came from “The Fabelmans,” which despite picking up noms for ensemble and supporting actor Paul Dano, saw Michelle Williams snubbed. Instead, she was overlooked in favor of Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Ana De Armas (“Blonde”), Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”), Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) and Viola Davis (“The Woman King”). In a handful of conversations with award voters of the actors’ branch, they shared that they see her work as Mitzi Fabelman as a “supporting” turn.
In the case of the SAG snub, the guild honors the submission, so the nominating committee cannot vote for Williams in supporting actress, but what if they passed her over in hopes of seeing her name among the supporting options? But when they didn’t, opted for someone else? It’s not too often the Oscars reverse a campaign submission, especially from lead to supporting. Lakeith Stanfield was one of the first for “Judas and the Black Messiah,” but that was mostly due to his co-star Daniel Kaluuya getting lead votes. Williams isn’t splitting with any of her female co-stars.
Ana De Armas’ entry for “Blonde” at SAG points to strong support from the international voting bloc (in my humble opinion). The disdain for the film stateside is heard to be quite the opposite overseas. She could pull through, along with a makeup and hairstyling mention for the movie.
AMPAS voting is open now and concludes on Tuesday, Jan. 17 at 5 p.m. PT.
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
2
Cate Blanchett
“Tár”
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
3
Viola Davis
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
4
Ana de Armas
“Blonde”
Netflix
A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.
5
Danielle Deadwyler
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
Next in Line
6
Michelle Williams*
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
7
Olivia Colman
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
8
Margot Robbie
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
A tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.
9
Jennifer Lawrence
“Causeway”
A24/Apple Original Films
A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.
10
Emma Thompson
“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Searchlight Pictures
Nancy Stokes, a retired school teacher, is yearning for some adventure, and some sex. And she has a plan, which involves hiring a young sex worker named Leo Grande.
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (Searchlight Pictures)
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Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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