Final Oscars Predictions: Best Actor – Austin Butler Likely Winner, but Possible Colin Farrell Upset Stirs
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: March 9. 2023
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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actor
With BAFTA and Golden Globes going with Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Critics Choice and SAG choosing Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), on the surface, the race has narrowed to one of the two men walking with the statuette. But, interestingly, Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) has also come up in multiple conversations, with members sharing they voted for the Irish veteran.
Even though Butler dominated the early days of the circuit, then cooling off a bit in the middle portion, he came roaring back in phase two. I think the international voting bloc is going for him significantly, and the best picture nom helped tons. Fraser would be the first best actor winner without a picture nod since Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” (2009). Going with Butler.
Will Win: Austin Butler, “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
Could Win: Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
Should Win: Austin Butler
Should have been here: Mehdi Bajestani, “Holy Spider” (Utopia)
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
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2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.
2022 category winner: Will Smith, "King Richard" (Warner Bros.)
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