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Final Oscars Predictions: Animated Short – Will the Academy Go for ‘The Boy’ or ‘Dicks?’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Animated Short

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
MY YEAR OF DICKS, 2022. © The Animation Showcase / Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

This animation category seems pre-ordained for Apple to get its first win here with “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse.” There are lovers of “My Year of Dicks” (helped by Riz Ahmed’s viral nomination announcement) that could surprise.

The streamer campaigned aggressively for the film that is executive produced by J.J. Abrams. However, director Sara Gunnarsdóttir’s timely story about women (which likely pairs well with voters checking off “Women Talking”) has strong support.

It’ll be close, but Apple seems to have the edge after the BAFTA win (where “Dicks” wasn’t nominated).

Will Win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse” (Apple TV+) – Charlie Mackesy, Matthew Freud
Could Win: “My Year of Dicks” (The Animation Showcase) – Sara Gunnarsdóttir, Pamela Ribon
Should Win: “The Flying Sailor” (National Film Board of Canada) – Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby
Should have been here: “New Moon” (Edith Productions) – Jérémie Balais, Jeffig Le Bars, Raul Domingo, Colman Domingo

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Director(s) and Producer(s)

Distributor(s)

1

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

Apple TV+

Follows a boy, a mole, a fox and a horse, as they create an unexpected friendship and travel together in the boy’s search for home.

2

“My Year of Dicks”

Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon

The Animation Showcase

Pam tries very hard to lose her virginity and always searches for “the one”. She’s not alone, her best friends are with her.

3

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

Lachlan Pendragon

Griffith Film School

A young office worker uncovers the flaws in his stop-motion universe with the help of a mysterious talking ostrich.

4

“Ice Merchants”

João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano

Curtas Metragens CRL / Agência – Portuguese Short Film Agency

Every day, a father and his son jump with a parachute from their vertiginous cold house, attached to a cliff, to go to the village on the ground, far away where they sell the ice they produce daily.

5

“The Flying Sailor”

Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

National Film Board of Canada (NFB)

Inspired by true events, the highly anticipated new film by Oscar-nominated duo Wendy Tilby and Amanda Forbis is a meditation on a sailor’s unexpected voyage.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: "The Windshield Wiper" (The Animation Showcase) - Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sánchez

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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