Oscar Nomination Predictions: It’ll Be a Big Year for Barbenheimer and More

This could be a year for Oscar voters to go big. Not only will they likely be showering nominations on “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” two huge box-office hits, but they could give double-digit nominations to as many as four different movies: the Barbenheimer pair, plus “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Poor Things.”

One thing to remember as the Academy prepares to announce this year’s nominees on Tuesday morning: In the nominating round, passion counts for more than consensus. The nearly 10,000 Oscar voters get to cast their ballots for five different films or people in order of preference, but their No. 1 choices are the key in the early rounds of counting – lower choices only come into play as ballots get redistributed in later rounds. So it’s better to be loved by, say, one-third of the voters than to be liked by two-thirds or three-quarters of them.

Here are our best guesses for the nominees in all 23 categories.

BEST PICTURE

In a way, it’s surprising how few movies are genuine contenders for these 10 slots, and how predictable the slate seems to be. It starts with the two halves of Barbenheimer, the pop-culture phenom “Barbie” and the presumed frontrunner “Oppenheimer.” Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro” are inescapable, while Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” and Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” came out of the fall festivals with enormous good will for those veteran directors. Two first-time filmmakers, Cord Jefferson and Celine Song, should have plenty of passionate fans for “American Fiction” and “Past Lives,” respectively. And with an increasingly international Academy, there’s been a non-English film in the Best Picture lineup for the last five years in a row, with the Cannes Film Festival entries “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” likely to give the Oscars two such films this year.

The caveat: In the four years in which the Producers Guild and Oscars both went with a flat 10 nominees (2009, 2010, 2021 and 2022), the PGA never predicted the Oscars 10-for-10. The best they’ve done is nine matches in 2010, while last year they only went 7-for-10. So it’s risky to predict an exact match, although that’s what we’re doing.

If something in the top 10 shows unexpected weakness, there’s a slight possibility that “The Color Purple” could slide in. Also, Spain’s Oscar entry “Society of the Snow” showed unexpected strength by showing up on the Oscar shortlists for makeup, score and visual effects as well as international film, shades of last year’s Best Picture nominee “All Quiet on the Western Front.”

But Todd Haynes’ “May December” has failed to get much attention from awards voters. And while “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” has been touted as a contender in some circles, though it’s hard to imagine voters in this category going for an animated film that is both a sequel to a film that didn’t get a best-pic nom and a prequel that sets up its own sequel with a cliffhanger ending.

Predicted nominees:
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”

Watch out for: “The Color Purple,” “Society of the Snow”

BEST DIRECTOR

With 10 slots for Best Picture but only five for Best Director, some serious trimming has to be done. It’s hard to imagine Christopher Nolan, Greta Gerwig and Martin Scorsese not being nominated, and Yorgos Lanthimos is an international darling tailor made for an increasingly international Academy. Alexander Payne was the fifth nominee at the Directors Guild Awards, and he could easily be the same at the Oscars – but those two groups rarely agree 100%, and the Academy’s Directors Branch has been nominating directors of non-English films almost every year since Alfonso Cuaron and Bong Joon Ho won.

The two directors most likely to fill the non-English slot are Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest” and Justine Triet for “Anatomy of a Fall,” which Glazer having a slight edge. If the voters want to keep things domestic, there’s Bradley Cooper for “Maestro” – but actor-directors haven’t had the easiest time in this category, as Ben Affleck can attest, and Cooper fell short with the Academy even when the Directors Guild nominated him for “A Star Is Born” in 2018.

Predicted nominees:
Greta Gerwig, “Barbie”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”

Watch out for: Alexander Payne, “The Holdovers”; Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”; Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”

BEST ACTOR

There are six major contenders for five slots in this category, and a couple of others lurking in the shadows. The leaders are Bradley Cooper for “Maestro,” Leonardo DiCaprio for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Colman Domingo for “Rustin,” Paul Giamatti for “The Holdovers,” Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer” and Jeffrey Wright for “American Fiction,” with Andrew Scott as an indie dark horse for “All of Us Strangers” and Barry Keoghan enjoying an 11th-hour surge only partly because of all the headlines garnered by his nude dancing.

At one point, Domingo or Wright seemed likeliest to be squeezed out, but the SAG Award nominations produced a different option: Those voters left out DiCaprio, whose performance in “Killers” is more divisive than the ones by his costars Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro. Divisive isn’t always bad in Oscar nominations – but in a field as strong as this one, any sign of vulnerability can be a problem.

Predicted nominees:
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”

Watch out for: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Barry Keoghan, “Saltburn”; Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers”

BEST ACTRESS

Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are the, shall we say, stone cold locks in the category, and the frontrunners. Carey Mulligan and Margot Robbie are all but assured to join them. But things get interesting when it comes to the final slot, which could go to Annette Bening (a four-time Oscar nominee in a physically demanding role), Greta Lee (a veteran actress delivering a subtly moving performance after never before getting a part this substantial), Natalie Portman (a past Oscar winner in a delicious role more beloved by critics than voters) or Sandra Hüller (a German actress who delivers remarkable performances in two of the year’s most notable international films).

While Bening might have been the logical choice in the past, today’s Academy might well find the one-two punch of Hüller in “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” too formidable to pass up.

Predicted nominees:
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”

Watch out for: Annette Bening, “Nyad”; Greta Lee, “Past Lives”; Natalie Portman, “May December”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

There are probably at least four actors in contention for two spots in this category, and two of them are from “Poor Things.” Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe could both be nominated; or just one could, probably Ruffalo; or they could both be overlooked in favor of Sterling K. Brown for “American Fiction,” Charles Melton for “May December” or maybe even Dominic Sessa for “The Holdovers.”

The other three spots, though, seem pretty much guaranteed to go to Robert Downey Jr. for “Oppenheimer,” Robert De Niro for “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Ryan Gosling for “Barbie.”

Predicted nominees:
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Watch out for: Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things”; Charles Melton, “May December”; Dominic Sessa, “The Holdovers”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been winning awards in this category all season long, and there’s little reason to think she won’t continue. Emily Blunt has been a lock for “Oppenheimer as well,” while Jodie Foster and Julianne Moore have been the best awards bets from their movies, “Nyad” and “May December.” Of those four, Moore’s position is probably the shakiest, based on the underwhelming response her film has received from voters.

Then there’s Danielle Brooks, playing a role in “The Color Purple” that has already been responsible for an Oscar nomination for Oprah Winfrey and Tony noms for Brooks and for Felicia P. Fields; America Ferrera, who delivers the year’s most viral speech in “Barbie”; Penelope Cruz, a longtime favorite of Oscar voters who brings plenty of fire to “Ferrari”; and Rosamund Pike, the likeliest acting nominee from a film, “Saltburn,” that could appeal to Oscar voters with twisted sensibilities.

Predicted nominees:
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Julianne Moore, “May December”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”

Watch out for: Penelope Cruz, “Ferrari”; America Ferrera, “Barbie”; Rosamund Pike, “Saltburn”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nobody except the Academy’s Writers Branch thinks that “Barbie” is an adapted screenplay. But in this category, the Academy makes the rules – so for the purposes of the Oscars, “Barbie” is adapted and things will be harder for indie films like “All of Us Strangers” and “The Zone of Interest” in a category where voters often find a way to salute adventurous indies.

“Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” are the heavyweights here, but Cord Jefferson’s screenplay about a disgruntled writer, “American Fiction,” has joined them as a strong favorite to be nominated.

Predicted nominees:
“American Fiction”
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

Watch out for: “All of Us Strangers,” “Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret.,” “The Zone of Interest”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

With “Barbie” out of the way, original screenplay is a blockbuster-free zone, with the strongest contenders being Celine Song’s “Past Lives,” David Hemingson’s “The Holdovers” and Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s “Anatomy of a Fall.” It’s also a place where writers seem apt to give a little love to “May December” and “Maestro,” unless the kinky vote coalesces around “Saltburn.”

Still, if Ben Affleck’s “Air” or Ava DuVernay’s “Origin” show up anywhere on Tuesday, this could be the place.

Predicted nominees:
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“Maestro”
“May December”
“Past Lives”

Watch out for: “Air,” “Origin,” “Saltburn”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The American Society of Cinematographers, which usually goes 4-for-5 in matching the Academy’s Cinematographers Branch, nominated “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things” and one big surprise, the Chilean horror allegory “El Conde.” While that last film isn’t out of the question as an Oscar nominee (it’d be a delicious one), it’s likelier that the branch substitutes a more widely awarded indie like “The Zone of Interest,” or even a bigger, glossier film like “Barbie” or “The Color Purple.”

Predicted nominees:
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”

Watch out for: “Barbie,” “The Color Purple,” “Saltburn”

BEST FILM EDITING

As we move into the below-the-line categories, one big question looms: How many nominations can “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Poor Things” amass? And if all four films end up with double-digit nominations, how satisfying would it be to have that quartet battling it out in category after category?

“Barbie” might slip out of the film-editing category in favor of a more high-octane film like “Ferrari,” but the rest of this year’s fab four should make the cut, probably joined by something a little talkier.

Predicted nominees:
“Ferrari”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

Watch out for: “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “Maestro”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Two of the big four, “Barbie” and “Poor Things,” are locks in this category, and the other two are definite contenders: “Killers of the Flower Moon” will get points for its careful reconstruction of Native American garments, while “Oppenheimer” is the kind of large-scale, mid-century period drama that can attract attention and votes. (See: “Mank.”) “Maestro” could also fit that last slot, but it’s just as likely that voters will gravitate toward something flashier, like “The Color Purple,” “Napoleon” or “Wonka.”

Predicted nominees
“Barbie”
“The Color Purple”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

Watch out for: “Maestro,” “Napoleon,” “Wonka”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: “Barbie,” “Killers,” “Oppy,” “Poor Things.” They’re all favorites to be nominated – and another big Best Picture contender, “Maestro,” may well join them. Still, “Saltburn” or “Wonka” aren’t out of the question, and “Asteroid City” would seem to be an obvious choice here – but strangely enough, only one Wes Anderson movie, “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” has ever been nominated in this category. (It won.)

Predicted nominees:
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”

Watch out for: “Asteroid City,” “Saltburn,” “Wonka”

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Bradley Cooper’s prosthetic nose in “Maestro” may have stirred up some controversy, but it’s also likely to land his makeup artists an Oscar nomination. Transforming an actor into a famous person often as not puts you on a fast track to the Dolby Theatre, which should also help the artists who turned Helen Mirren into Golda Meir for “Golda.” “Oppenheimer” is also in the mix, but it could be edged out by Willem Dafoe’s scars in “Poor Things,” the plane crash victims in “Society of the Snow” and the scale of “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Predicted nominees:
“Golda”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”

Watch out for: “Beau Is Afraid,” “The Last Voyage of the Demeter,” “Oppenheimer”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

With 15 scores on the shortlist, this category could go in a number of different directions. While the only absolute lock seems to be Ludwig Goransson for “Oppenheimer,” Robbie Robertson is likely to receive a posthumous nom for “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Jerskin Fendrix may stand out for the utterly distinctive style of his “Poor Things” music. Beyond that, the bold minimalism of Mica Levi’s score for “The Zone of Interest” and the bold maximalism of Daniel Pemberton’s for “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” are both ear-catching, but so are Michael Giacchino for “Society of the Snow,” Laura Karpman for “American Fiction,” Thomas Newman for “Elemental,” Mark Orton for “The Holdovers” and, oh yeah, 53-time nominee John Williams for “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.”

Predicted nominees:
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“The Zone of Interest”

Watch out for: “American Fiction,” “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” “Society of the Snow”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The three most notable songs on this category’s shortlist are all from “Barbie,” but Oscar rules say that no more than two songs can be nominated from any film. With Ryan Gosling’s showstopping power ballad “I’m Just Ken” and Billie Eilish’s moving “What Was I Made For?” at the top of the list, that’s trouble for Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night,” which might otherwise have gotten enough votes for a nomination. The two “Barbie” songs will probably be joined by Jon Batiste’s touching love song “It Never Went Away” – and while most prognosticators are picking Lenny Kravitz’s “Road to Freedom” from “Rustin,” I refuse to believe that the vibrant on-screen performance of “High Life” from “Flora and Son” won’t help sway the music branch.

That accounts for four of the five slots. For the fifth, my rule is simple: Until the Academy’s Music Branch proves otherwise, assume that the Diane Warren song on the ballot (there always is one, you know) will get a nomination. This year’s DW song is “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot,” and it’ll be her 15th nomination.

Predicted nominees:
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
“High Life” from “Flora and Son”
“I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”

Watch out for: “Keep It Movin’” from “The Color Purple,” “Quiet Eyes” from “Past Lives,” “Road to Freedom” from “Rustin”

BEST SOUND

This category could easily deliver nominations for “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” all of which made the 10-film shortlist. But the first of those could be vulnerable in a field that often goes for loud, muscular movies like “Ferrari,” which was one of the two films that made the top feature-film categories from the Cinema Audio Society and the Motion Picture Sound Editors. “The Zone of Interest” is the wild card here, crafting a quiet soundscape that is nonetheless essential to the power of the film.

Predicted nominees:
“Ferrari”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”

Watch out for: “Barbie,” “The Killer,” “Napoleon”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“The Creator” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” were the leading nominees from the Visual Effects Society, though “Spider-Man” had the benefit of animation-specific categories. With nothing on the scale and import of last year’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” the nominees will likely be a mixture of effects extravaganzas (“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”) and well-liked films that use VFX well in a supporting capacity (“Poor Things,” “Society of the Snow”).

Predicted nominees:
“The Creator”
“Godzilla Minus One”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”

Watch out for: “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One,” “Napoleon,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

With a record 33 films qualifying, this category consists of two locks, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and “The Boy and the Heron,” and a whole lotta uncertainty. Disney/Pixar has won 15 of the 22 Oscars in this category (16 if you count its distribution of 2002 winner “Spirited Away”) and it only failed to be nominated twice, so a nod for its “Elemental” is likely. Beyond that, top contenders include Netflix’s “Nimona,” the box-office hits “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and the indies “They Shot the Piano Player” and “Suzume.” It’s worth nothing that ever since the Academy opened up the voting to the entire Academy, the indies haven’t fared as well at making inroads into a category dominated by major animation companies.

Predicted nominees:
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”

Watch out for: “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget,” ”Robot Dreams,” ”The Super Mario Bros. Movie”

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

On the 15-film shortlist in the international category, at least eight films have picked up strong buzz from the voters: the UK’s “The Zone of Interest,” Spain’s “Society of the Snow,” France’s “The Taste of Things,” Germany’s “The Teacher’s Lounge,” Finland’s “Fallen Leaves,” Mexico’s “Totem,” Japan’s “Perfect Days” and Italy’s “Io Capitano.” Ukraine’s “20 Days in Mariupol” is possibly on that list as well, but it’s likelier to be nominated in the documentary category where it’s also shortlisted.

Which of those films will fall out? The key is to get No. 1 votes, which means that powerful or disturbing films like “Zone” and “Snow” may have an edge over more pleasurable ones like “Taste,” a rapturous reverie that one seemed like a co-frontrunner and now is potentially in danger of slipping out of the top five. “Tótem,” meanwhile, is a small movie that may have picked up enough passionate fans to make it the category’s biggest surprise, while “Fallen Leaves” and “Perfect Days” leave you smiling and “The Teachers’ Lounge” leaves you shaken.

This year’s shortlist in the category was very predictable. The final five, not so much.

Predicted nominees:
Finland: “Fallen Leaves”
Germany: “The Teachers’ Lounge”
Mexico: “Totem”
Spain: “Society of the Snow”
United Kingdom: “The Zone of Interest”

Watch out for: France: “The Taste of Things,” Japan: “Perfect Days,” Italy: “Io Capitano”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Voters in the Academy’s Documentary Branch have a tradition of putting crowd-pleasing documentaries on the shortlist but failing to nominate them, with victims in recent years including “Apollo 11,” “The Truffle Hunters,” “Three Identical Strangers” and “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” This year, the shortlisted films that fit that mold include “American Symphony” and especially “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie.” The latter film could well be the favorite to win if it’s nominated – but at a time when the Academy is trying to reinforce its position as an organization for theatrical films, “Still” probably wasn’t helped when it won four Emmy Awards the weekend before Oscar voting began.

If “Still” does fall out, which is far from certain, the frontrunners will likely be “American Symphony,” “20 Days in Mariupol” and “Beyond Utopia.” And with the doc branch gaining international members at an even faster rate than the Academy in general, it’s logical to look overseas at contenders like “The Eternal Memory” from Chile, “Four Daughters” from Tunisia and “Bobi Wine: The People’s President” from Uganda.

Predicted nominees:
“American Symphony”
“Beyond Utopia”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Still: A Michael J. Fox Story”
“20 Days in Mariupol”

Watch out for: “Bobi Wine: The People’s President,” “Four Daughters,” “To Kill a Tiger”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Major companies have embraced the short-doc format, which means this year’s shortlist is filled with films from Netflix, ESPN, MTV Documentary Films, PBS, the New Yorker, the New York Times and others. “The Last Repair Shop” could become Ben Proudfoot’s third nomination in four years and his co-director Kris Bowers’ second, while “The ABCs of Book Banning” would be the first-ever Oscar nomination for former HBO and current MTV doc president Sheila Nevins, who has won more individual Emmys (31) than any other person. As always in the category, timely subject matter is often a key factor.

Predicted nominees:
“The ABCs of Book Banning”
“Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games”
“Camp Courage”
“Island in Between”
“The Last Repair Shop”

Watch out for: “Deciding Vote,” “If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis,” “Last Song From Kabul”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Disney dominated this category in its early years, winning the first eight awards and 10 of the first 11. So it’d make sense if “Once Upon a Studio,” a tribute to the studio’s 100th anniversary featuring dozens of familiar Disney characters, makes the final five this year, assuming voters don’t view it as too much of a commercial. Other strong contenders include Disney vet John Musker’s musical “I’m Hip,” the World War I tale “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko,” the surreal “Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)” and “Humo (Smoke),” a deeply disturbing look inside a Nazi concentration camp.

Predicted nominees:
“Humo (Smoke)”
“Once Upon a Studio”
“Pachyderme”
“War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
“Will Summon”

Watch out for: “Koerkorter (Dog Apartment),” “Letter to a Pig,” “Ninety-Five Senses”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

This year’s live-action short category was awash in big names, with the shortlisted films featuring actors David Oyelowo (“The After”), John Travolta (“The Shepherd”), Ben Whishaw (“Good Boy”) and Ian McKellen (“The One-Note Man”), plus a battery of additional stars in shorts directed by Wes Anderson (“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”) and Pedro Almodovar (“Strange Way of Life”). That doesn’t mean the starry projects will all be nominated, because other contenders are provocative (“The Anne Frank Gift Shop”), wrenching (“Invisible Border,” “Red, White and Blue”) and troubling (“Yellow,” “Invincible”) enough to potentially advance.

Of the two projects with star directors, Almodovar’s gay Western may have a slight edge over Anderson’s droll but very talky saga, the longest film on the shortlist.

Predicted nominees:
“The After”
“The Anne Frank Gift Shop”
“Invisible Border”
“The Shepherd”
“Strange Way of Life”

Watch out for: “Knight of Fortune,” “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” “Yellow”

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