OPINION - Nigel Farage not standing for Reform won't help Rishi Sunak all that much

It is testament to Nigel Farage's political entrepreneurism that the former Ukip leader can credibly claim to be one of the most influential British politicians of the last century, despite never being a Member of Parliament. Not that it has been for the want of trying. Farage stood seven times, losing on each occasion.

As a side note, it is a delicious irony that his fellow Euroscpetic, Jeremy Corbyn (elected 10 times to Parliament), has little affection for the institution. The former Labour leader is a follower of Tony Benn. Consequently, he believes in extra-Parliamentary activity, and that power should ultimately flow from local party members in order to truly represent the interests of the working class.

Back to Farage and the Reform UK honorary president today ruled out standing as a candidate in the upcoming election, too busy it seems with the US presidential contest. This is a rare piece of good news for Rishi Sunak, but ultimately limited in its scope.

You may recall that back in 2019, concerned that he might split the Leave vote, Farage announced that his Brexit Party would not field candidates in the 317 seats that the Conservatives won at the previous election. This was of enormous benefit to Boris Johnson, given that the Brexit Party actually won the European elections held a few months earlier, in which the Conservatives finished fifth. This left the Leave vote fairly unified, while the Remain vote splintered between Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

Consequently, even though the Conservatives' 2019 share of the vote rose by just 1.2 percentage on 2017, Johnson gained 47 seats, a majority of 80 and what really ought to have been a decade in power.  But things are different this time.

Farage may not be standing but Reform, the Brexit Party's successor party, is not backing down. Its leader, Richard Tice, confirmed today that his party “will be standing in 630 seats across the whole of England, Scotland and Wales. No ifs no buts.”

Professor Sir John Curtice, the unelected leader of British psephology, notes that Reform is taking more votes off the Conservatives than Labour is. And while that may not translate into many (or indeed any) Reform MPs, it does not need to if the aim is simply to hurt the Tories. Throw in the fact that Keir Starmer's voting coalition is far more efficiently spread than previous Labour leaders have enjoyed, and the swing required for a Labour landslide, let alone a majority of one, may be less than many imagine.

True, the Tories could shift even further right to try to win back some of these voters, but that necessarily risks further alienating more liberal 2019 and 2017 supporters. Farage or no Farage, Reform will have a significant impact on the future makeup of the House of Commons.

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