Opinion - The crucial importance of Trump’s pick for ambassador to Hungary
President Trump’s unorthodox Cabinet selections, such as Pete Hegseth for secretary of Defense and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for secretary of Health and Human Services, have dominated news headlines and social media debate. Yet one appointment not yet determined is Trump’s ambassador to Hungary — a nation whose capital, Budapest, is renowned for its fairytale charm, but whose political reality is anything but idyllic.
This decision might seem like a mere diplomatic footnote, but it is far more important. The nomination for ambassador to Hungary will ultimately signal Trump’s vision for American foreign policy and the future of conservatism.
To those unfamiliar with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his government, America’s relationship with this small Eastern European country may appear insignificant. But the Orbán government and the “postliberal” philosophies promoted by leading Hungarian conservatives have considerable influence on the American right. Their ideas are far out of step with the core pillars of small-government conservatism.
Hungary has recently diverged from neighbors like Austria and Croatia by rejecting traditional tenets of liberal democracy and individual liberty. Criticizing classical liberalism — defined by limited government, free markets and civil liberties — as failing the family and Western civilization, Hungary’s postliberals advocate for a stronger government to enforce right-wing social views. Supported by American academics, including Notre Dame political philosopher Patrick Deneen and Harvard Law professor Adrian Vermeule, these ideas have permeated the U.S., turning this philosophy into political action through the national conservative movement.
The infusion of Orbánism into America’s new right can be seen in the meteoric rise of Vice President JD Vance, from first-time author to just one heartbeat from the presidency. Vance has spoken at various national conservative conferences and joined Deneen to discuss liberal “regime change” with the Intercollegiate Studies Institute. The most recent national conservative conference featured an interview with Orbán himself. Due to his life story, the new vice president associates himself with this coalition, particularly on issues of family and industrial policy.
While Vance and his supporters praise Orbán’s pro-childrearing tax policies and anti-immigrant rhetoric, they miss the darker, authoritarian tendencies at the helm in Budapest and within these new strains of conservatism. The Hungarian government holds troubling ties with autocratic regimes in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran. At home, the Orbán government has undermined judicial independence and media freedom with laws expanding regulatory oversight and “enforcing numerous vaguely worded provisions affecting all print, broadcast, and online media, including providers and publishers,” according to a report from the democracy nonprofit Freedom House. Nevertheless, America’s national conservatives and postliberals portray Hungary as a conservative success story.
This blind optimism is far off the mark. While Orbán’s government has attempted to boost family formation through tax benefits and marriage support, Hungary’s fertility rate has grown slowly and lags since an early 2010s spike. Likewise, Hungary falls far below its neighbors in religiosity, despite the Orbán government’s attempts to prop up the Catholic church through government funding. What seems like the ideal conservative model for national governance is, in reality, a fantasy land.
Hungarian conservatism, centered on centralized authority and state intervention, contrasts sharply with American conservatism’s focus on limited government, free markets and individual rights. It adopts a more authoritarian approach, resembling progressives’ top-down policies but with a Christian social-conservative emphasis. Prioritizing cultural uniformity, Hungarian conservatism often promotes exclusionary policies, suppressing pluralism and dissent.
This stances can leave Hungary uncomfortably aligned with Russia and other dictatorships. Biden’s ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman, repeatedly condemned the Orbán government for laws that ban the display and promotion of homosexuality, anti-American messaging and cozying up with Moscow. A nation that aligns with the our greatest adversaries and undermines civil liberties should give otherwise hawkish American conservatives cause for concern.
But Pressman’s replacement might not be so bold. Rumors suggest Bryan Leib, a former congressional candidate and CEO of Henry Public Relations, will replace Pressman as ambassador to Hungary. Leib has publicly criticized the sitting ambassador, deeming his sharp statements against Orbán’s foreign policy and undemocratic domestic policies as “activism” rather than diplomacy. Much like Vance and America’s national conservatives, Leib described Hungary as a model for conservatives worldwide and seeks to build a close relationship between Orbán and the Trump administration.
Whether Trump makes Leib’s Danube dreams come true remains to be seen. Nonetheless, the selection will be pivotal in revealing the president’s alignment in the American conservative schism and where he hopes the GOP will go in 2028.
America’s relationship with Hungary stands as a test case for how the new administration will address illiberal nations and where the president’s global priorities lie. With countries across the world undergoing historic changes in government — from the collapse of the Assad regime to Javier Milei’s revolutionary economic policies in Argentina — Trump will face pivotal choices for the future.
If personnel is policy, then the U.S. ambassador who spends the next few years in Budapest will shape American positioning in these critical junctures. This is a “reading of the tea leaves” for the coming years of American conservatism. The next ambassador to Hungary won’t just set diplomatic policy — he or she will help determine whether the traditions of American conservatism continue.
Sam Raus, a recent graduate of the University of Miami, is a Tech and Consumer Freedom Fellow with Young Voices.
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