Ohio State at Notre Dame: Quarterback experience may decide marquee matchup
This week’s college football slate is the best of the season so far with massive games like No. 4 Florida State at Clemson, No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama and No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame.
The Buckeyes travel as 3-point road favorites to Indiana to face the Fighting Irish. With a game total of 55.5, the books are expecting some points in what could be a highlight game of the season.
Comparing the Ohio State and Notre Dame quarterbacks
Ohio State’s Kyle McCord has had an up-and-down start to his career. In the season opener against Indiana, McCord threw zero touchdown passes and one interception. Against Western Kentucky, however, McCord threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Which version of the Buckeyes quarterback is more true?
The answer could be that McCord is somewhere in between as an inexperienced starter who sat behind C.J. Stroud. I’m willing to bet that he’s more of what we saw against the Hoosiers in Ohio State's second game. It’s his target depth that's concerning in a high-profile game on the road against a top-10 defense.
From within 10 yards, McCord is a star, completing 42 of 45 passes. It’s what happens beyond that point that brings pause. On passes of 10-plus yards, McCord has completed only 11 on 29 attempts with three turnover-worthy plays, compared to zero from within 10 yards.
In back-to-back games, the Notre Dame defense held opposing quarterbacks to 50% completion or below.
Besides, are we really surprised McCord had an improved performance against Western Kentucky? The Hilltoppers secondary has ranked 83rd or worse in back-to-back years in passing yards allowed, giving up an average of 270 yards to opposing quarterbacks when on the road. McCord was supposed to have a good game against them at home.
Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman, on the other hand, is in his sixth year as a college football quarterback. Since 2020, Hartman has ranked at least top 30 in passing yards in the FBS while throwing for 77 touchdowns to 26 interceptions in his last two seasons at Wake Forest.
The difference is that Hartman is now behind the best offensive line he’s ever had. When with the Demon Deacons, the offensive line ranked bottom 30 for sacks allowed in three straight years. Through three games, Hartman has zero interceptions and just four sacks in part because of better protection.
Because of that protection, Hartman has been great from the medium-to-deep range, throwing eight of his 13 touchdowns from 20+ yards. In his sixth year, Hartman has developed patience and become a complete pocket passer.
McCord has already been tried against a capable Indiana defense and looked lackluster, while Hartman has proven he’s leading a top offensive unit in a 45-24 win over NC State. The Wolfpack defense had haunted Hartman for years during his time at Wake Forest (six touchdowns, six interceptions, 13 sacks in three meetings).
Experience under center combined with better pass protection will determine the outcome.
When kept clean:
Hartman: 11 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 12.4 YPA
McCord: 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, 11.9 YPA
Betting tip: Notre Dame +3. If you agree, grabbing +135 on the moneyline is an additional option.
