NFL player props: Panthers' Brian Burns gives Falcons' run game the third degree

It's been less than two weeks since the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons treated us to a zany, roller-coaster finish in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This time around, it's Carolina's turn to host, and the weather projects to be uninviting, with a wind advisory in effect and an 81% chance of rain. Here are three player props from BetMGM I like in tonight's potential slopfest:

Tyler Allgeier over 31.5 rushing yards (-120)

Rain or shine, sleet or snow, Arthur Smith is "gonna run the piss outta this football." The Falcons rank second in rushing play percentage, at 57.7%. Thursday night's weather is likely to make Smith double down on the ground and pound against a Panthers defense that gives up the fifth-most rushing yards per game (139.3) and is surrendering 151.3 rushing yards per game over their last three outings. Allgeier solidified his place in the Falcons backfield during Cordarrelle Patterson's absence and turned 10 totes into 99 yards last week against the Chargers. He's seen double-digit carries and cashed this prop in each of his last six games.

Brian Burns over 3.5 tackles + assists (-120)

Carolina's defensive end is a phenomenal pass-rusher and an equally outstanding run-stopper. Burns notched seven combined tackles and assists versus the Falcons in Week 8, as Atlanta ran the ball 37 times and dropped back to pass on 30 occasions. He's gone over this number in five of eight games this year and will get plenty of opportunities to record tackles tonight against a run-heavy Falcons offense that ranks 25th in Run Block Win Rate.

Xavier Woods over 4.5 tackles + assists (-120)

Woods has played in five games this year where the opponent ran the ball on at least 47% of plays. He hit this prop in all five of them. Carolina's safety will be instrumental in their plan to stop the run on Thursday, whether it's coming on down "The Price is Right"-style to meet runners at the line of scrimmage, chasing ball-carriers on the edge, or making tackles at the second level.

Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns recorded seven combined tackles and assists versus the Falcons in Week 8. (Photo by Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports)
Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns recorded seven combined tackles and assists versus the Falcons in Week 8. (Photo by Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports)

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, and ESPN.