It's been a rough year for Tom Brady. His marriage is on the rocks, crypto is tanking and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a losing record after seven games. You almost can't blame the guy for throwing tablets around like he's Moses. If the Bucs lose to the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night, they'll drop to 3-5 and find themselves in severe danger of missing the playoffs. Here are three semi-correlated player props on BetMGM I like in tonight's game:
Lamar Jackson longest passing completion over 32.5 yards (-120)
Three-quarters of the Bucs' starting secondary will be sidelined by injuries for Thursday's contest. Tampa Bay has given up a completion of at least 36 yards in four of their last six games. The two quarterbacks who didn't hit this mark against them were Marcus Mariota and P.J. Walker. Jackson went over this number in his first three games this year, when he had a healthy Rashod Bateman in the lineup. Bateman caught passes of 55, 75 and 35 yards in those games. The second-year receiver returned from a sprained foot last week and logged a full practice on Wednesday.
Rashod Bateman over 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
My Yahoo colleague and Reception Perception guru Matt Harmon labeled Bateman as "a poor man's Justin Jefferson" coming into this season. As is often the case, he's not wrong. Bateman is extremely skilled at exploiting soft coverage and is as much of a gamewrecker deep and outside as he is in the middle of the field. In the three games before he suffered his foot injury, he averaged 75.3 receiving yards. Bateman owns a 20.3% target share this year.
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115)
Jackson cashed this in his first three outings this year, but hasn't hit since. Thursday night's game versus a depleted Tampa secondary is an opportune time to get back on the horse. The Bucs have surrendered the ninth-most passing touchdowns and rank 31st in red zone defense (76.5% of opponent red zone trips have resulted in a touchdown).
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference and teamrankings.com.