NFL player prop of the day: Tom Brady, the NFL's TD king, is probably in for some regression

·3-min read

Tom Brady is going to put up a passing touchdown record that probably won't be topped for a long time. 

He already has the record with 581. He passed Drew Brees last season and currently has Brees beat by 10 TD passes. Brees is retired. Aaron Rodgers is next among active quarterbacks with 412. If Rodgers throws 30 touchdowns a season he's still five seasons behind Brady, who might play forever. 

Brady is the NFL's touchdown king and will be for a while, so it seems odd to bet against his touchdown total at BetMGM. But it will be difficult for Brady to go over the total. 

Tom Brady is the NFL's all-time passing touchdowns leader. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tom Brady is the NFL's all-time passing touchdowns leader. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Tom Brady is coming off a great season

Brady had 40 touchdowns last season, an amazing season but not one that seemed like an outlier. We're used to Brady being great by now. 

Still, his total of 36.5 at BetMGM for this season is really high. 

Brady's touchdown percentage — his percentage of attempts that end up in touchdowns — was 6.6 last season. his highest mark since 2010. That should come down a bit. He also threw 24 touchdowns of 10 yards or fewer. Of that number, 14 were 5 yards or fewer. Not that Brady isn't excellent inside the 10, with some great short-area targets in Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, but that number could easily be much smaller this season. All it would take is a few more short touchdowns from the running backs. A lot of things broke right for Brady to hit 40 touchdowns last season, and it'll be hard to repeat that. 

And while it has been a losing proposition to bet on Brady's age catching up to him, it will happen. He turned 44 on Tuesday. As noted in the Buccaneers' team preview, here's the entire list of quarterbacks in NFL history who have taken a snap at age 44 or older: 

Vinny Testaverde: 94-of-172, 952 yards, 5 TD, 6 INT
Steve DeBerg: 30-of-59, 369 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
George Blanda: 39-of-80, 494 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT

That's the whole list. Brady has already shattered what we should expect from a quarterback in his 40s, but at some point he's not going to be tossing 40 touchdowns in a season. It wouldn't take much regression and age-related struggles for under 36.5 to be the winning ticket. A 36-touchdown season would be great, 22 more than every other 44-year-old QB in NFL history combined, and still be under the total. 

A lot of money has funneled into sportsbooks due to people betting on Brady taking a step back at age 40, 41, 42 and 43. It hasn't happened yet. But the total for his passing touchdowns is so high, even a small step back would win the bet this season. 

Previous BetMGM player prop breakdowns

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