NFL MVP betting: Tom Brady gaining separation as Patrick Mahomes rises

·5-min read

We're now almost through 11 weeks of the NFL season. While it's true that there's still plenty of football left and what happens on the field in the coming weeks will be paramount, analyzing the betting market for NFL MVP gives us a good idea of what consensus opinion is. Where do we stand heading into "Monday Night Football"?

Tom Brady enters Monday night as the clear favorite

Tom Brady has been towards the front of the leaderboard all season long. He opened the season with the third-best odds to win the award behind Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Then, when other quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Josh Allen became favorites, Brady was right behind them in terms of betting odds.

Brady is yet to play this week as his Buccaneers host the New York Giants on Monday night. Brady and the Bucs are 10.5-point favorites. However, due to the failures and unavailability of other contenders, Brady has jumped to the top of the betting odds. Brady is currently +260 to win NFL MVP.

It hasn't been smooth sailing for Brady the past few weeks. He's thrown four interceptions in his last two games against the New Orleans Saints and the Washington Football Team. Tampa Bay lost both games. To be fair to Brady, he's also thrown for 595 yards and six touchdowns over those two games. 

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looks on against the Washington Football Team at FedExField on November 14, 2021 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Tom Brady is now the favorite to win the MVP award. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Now 44 years old, Brady leads the NFL with 27 touchdown passes on the season. He's averaging 319 passing yards per game while completing over 67% of his passes. The Buccaneers are 6-3 on the season and currently have a 1.5-game lead in the NFC South. Tampa Bay is also favorites to win the Super Bowl with +550 odds.

Bad week for rest of the leaderboard

We mentioned that Tom Brady has yet to play in Week 11. When you consider what happened to the rest of NFL MVP leaderboard, that might be a good thing. Here's what happened with other contenders:

  • Josh Allen entered the week as a +200 favorite to win NFL MVP. I truly didn't understand how he was such a substantial favorite as he's been inconsistent this season. Allen threw for just 209 yards while throwing two interceptions in a 41-15 blowout loss against Indianapolis. Josh Allen's odds to win the MVP currently sit at +450.

  • Matthew Stafford had the week off as the Rams were on a bye. That might be a good thing when you look at the performance of Stafford and the Rams' offense over their last two games. Stafford currently sits at +900 to win the MVP.

  • Dak Prescott led zero touchdown drives and turned the ball over three times in a 19-9 loss against the Chiefs. This is the second poor Prescott performance in the last three weeks. Prescott currently sits at +900 to win the MVP after opening the week at +700. 

  • Kyler Murray sat at +350 to win the MVP award in late October. However, he's now missed three games due to injury which makes winning the award an extremely uphill battle. His MVP case is not helped by the fact that Colt McCoy has gone 2-1 in his absence. Murray is currently +1200 to win MVP.

  • Lamar Jackson missed Week 11 due to illness after posting an absolute clunker in Week 10 against the Dolphins. These back-to-back unfortunate events have moved Lamar's odds to win MVP down to +1400.

Mahomes, Taylor among significant risers

In Week 9, the Kansas City Chiefs barely escaped the Jordan Love-led Green Bay Packers, winning the game, 13-7. Patrick Mahomes threw for just 166 yards on 37 pass attempts. After that game, Patrick Mahomes was listed at 66-to-1 to win NFL MVP. Out of mind. Not in the picture. 

While it's very hard to argue that Mahomes deserves to be in the MVP discussion, his odds have shot up. Mahomes currently sits at +1100 to win NFL MVP. This puts him even with Justin Herbert and ahead of Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. 

Outside of Week 10 against the Raiders, Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense have struggled lately. However, with Kansas City now winning games again, sportsbooks realized that hanging Mahomes at his previous 66-to-1 odds was a dangerous game to play. 

Elsewhere, Jonathan Taylor now sits at just 20-to-1 to win NFL MVP. Entering Week 11, Taylor sat at 125-to-1 odds. The Colts' running back had over 200 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in Indianapolis' 41-15 win over the Bills on Sunday. 

Taylor has at least 100 yards from scrimmage and at least one touchdown in eight straight games. The Colts have won six of those eight games and five of their last six games. There's no denying the fact that Taylor has put the Colts on his back and dragged them back into the playoff picture after a 1-4 start. 

The one issue for Taylor is that this has mostly been a quarterback award. Quarterbacks have won the award in 13 of the last 14 seasons. Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the last running back to upset the apple cart. 

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