Happy Thanksgiving! The NFL week gets started on Thursday with three games to celebrate the holiday. Of course, we have our usual Sunday slate and then finish things up on Monday night. This week is a big week for football betting as there are games all across the extended weekend with both college football and the NFL.
Nine road teams won straight up last week and unders have been hitting at a high rate. Underdogs have been a good bet for most of the season, but they weren't profitable last week. What's the consensus across the market as we head into Week 12?
Massive support in favor of New England
On Sunday afternoon, the New England Patriots were just 3-point favorites for this upcoming week against the Tennessee Titans. Now? New England is laying 6.5 points against the Titans.
New England has been extremely impressive in recent weeks, winning five straight games. Its defense has perplexed quarterbacks such as Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan. The offense led by rookie Mac Jones has been moving the ball and scoring more than enough to win games.
In its last three games, New England has outscored its opponents 94 to 13. It's given up just one touchdown over that time.
I'm sure bettors watched Ryan Tannehill throw four interceptions against Houston and salivated at what this Patriots defense could do to the Titans. Tennessee's offense has not been able to overcome the loss of Derrick Henry. This sure looks like another spot where the Patriots' defense can dominate.
No more belief in the Seahawks
When Russell Wilson returned from injury two weeks ago against Green Bay, there were people in the football world who thought the Seahawks could go on a run and compete for a playoff berth in the NFC.
Two weeks later, those thoughts seem distant. Wilson has not been good since his return, completing just 51% of his passes, averaging 184 yards per game. He has zero touchdown passes and two interceptions.
When the market opened during the games on Sunday, the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites for this upcoming weekend against Washington. As the week has progressed, the Football Team has become a 1-point favorite over Seattle.
It seems like we're reaching a point where things have to change in Seattle between Wilson, Pete Carroll and the organization. It doesn't feel like they're primed to make anything of this season. Meanwhile, Washington has won back-to-back games and has played well for a few weeks now.
There are three games on the slate for Thanksgiving and all three have seen some line movement heading into kickoff.
Chicago vs. Detroit: After Justin Fields was ruled out, the Bears are now 3-point favorites. The original line had the Bears laying 3.5 points. The total has also come crashing down to 41 points after opening at 44.5.
Las Vegas vs. Dallas: It's no surprise to see the Cowboys getting love on Thanksgiving. After opening as a 7-point favorite, the Cowboys are currently laying 7.5 points at home against the Raiders. Dallas will be without Amari Cooper, but there's a chance CeeDee Lamb will play.
Buffalo vs. New Orleans: Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite over New Orleans on Thursday night and based on movement around the industry, there's reason to expect this line to get even bigger. The Bills opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but action seems one-sided as the Saints deal with injuries and lack of offensive talent.
Chargers, Bengals, Browns other popular sides
The Los Angeles Chargers opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the Denver Broncos. However, as the market has gotten going, the Chargers are now laying 3 points against Denver. Denver is coming off a bye, while the Chargers nearly blew a three-score lead in the fourth quarter against Pittsburgh.
Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming off an impressive performance against the Raiders. The Bengals are currently 4.5-point favorites against the Steelers. Pittsburgh opened as just a 3.5-point underdog, but it seems like market consensus favors the Bengals.
One of the more interesting movements has been in the Cleveland-Baltimore game. The Browns opened as a 4.5-point road underdog in Baltimore. It has not been pretty for the Browns on offense, and their defense has been leaky, as well. Baker Mayfield is dealing with multiple injuries and has rarely been effective this season. Despite that, the Browns are now just 3.5-point underdogs.
Key number movement
Not every line movement is equal. Movement around key numbers such as 3 and 7 are much more impactful. Which games are seeing movement around key numbers?
Tampa Bay is now a 3-point favorite on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. The line opened with the Buccaneers laying 3.5 points, but recent performances from the Colts have been impressive.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been playing very well lately and they opened as 2.5-point favorites against the New York Giants. After an unimpressive performance by the Giants on Monday night, the Eagles are now a 3.5-point favorite over New York.
There's a huge game in the NFC between playoff hopefuls in Minnesota and San Francisco. The 49ers opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but at the current moment San Francisco is laying a full field goal at home against the Vikings.