Week 6 wrapped up dramatically with a Titans upset over the Bills 34-31 on Monday night.
The Bills were the newly crowned kings of the NFL after thrashing the Chiefs on prime time only a week ago. Their reign of being the team to beat in the NFL lasted only eight days before they fell short in Tennessee. The Bills are the perfect example of how a team can gain steam in the market after an impressive win, resulting in an inflated price the following week. Another week presents another opportunity to cash in on these overreactions.
As I turn my attention to Week 7, I immediately circle a few teams that had the most disappointing weeks. I want the teams that made the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Are bettors venting on social media about them? Are the coaches on the hot seat? These are the teams I want to target. If the knee-jerk reactions are shared by the betting market, there will be value in those teams. Let's cut through the smoke with these three games that present some opportunities to make some solid bets based on what we saw last week.
Washington (+9.5) at Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers was trending on Sunday for owning the Bears fans in a 24-14 win. Everything is perfect in Green Bay as the Pack covered their fourth straight game. Washington, on the other hand, was a huge letdown to the betting public as they were unable to stay within a touchdown to a Chiefs team that rarely covers the spread.
One week after closing as 6.5-point underdogs to the Chiefs, WFT is now getting three more points at Green Bay. That's a pretty big number for Green Bay to cover, considering it ranks in the middle of the pack in scoring and yards per play. In Week 3, Washington traveled to Buffalo as a 9-point underdog, and I surely do not rate the Packers comparably to the Bills. I am betting the market is a little too high on Rodgers, and I am comfortable banking on the backdoor being open with a Green Bay defense that is 26th in success rate allowed.
Atlanta at Miami (+2.5)
The Miami Dolphins have been the biggest disappointment in the NFL. Even with Tua Tagovailoa returning from injury, the Fish found a way to lose in London to Urban Meyer's Jaguars. Brian Flores' seat is hotter than the Florida sun, and that's exactly why I'm backing Miami. Atlanta is coming off a bye with a huge rest advantage against a team reeling from five straight losses.
Let's take a deep breath and realize we should see a much better version of Miami against Atlanta. This was an injury-ridden Dolphins team in London. The defense played without its top cornerbacks, Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, who Flores categorized as "day to day" after the game.
Tagovailoa completed 71% of his passes while throwing for over 300 yards without WRs DeVante Parker or Preston Williams. His success rate was fifth among all quarterbacks in Week 6, and it wasn't just the short passing game. He ranked ninth in air yards (8.3) and should be able to push the ball down the field with ease against an Atlanta secondary that has allowed more passing touchdowns than all but five teams.
Atlanta is coming off a bye after a 7-point win over the Jets. The Falcons are bottom five in net yards per play, have a lower net success rate than the Dolphins, and are ranked dead last in Football Outsiders' team DVOA metric. Miami was -3.5 favorites at BetMGM in this game when the season kicked off. Has Atlanta shown you enough in six weeks to warrant a six-point shift? I will take the 2.5 points in a game where Flores is fighting for his job. I'm betting his team fights for him.
Indianapolis at San Francisco (-3.5)
The Colts were 2.5-point road dogs to Miami just two weeks ago. Let that sink in. After one Sunday of carving up the Houston Texans' defense, the Colts are back! Some will point to how good they looked in grabbing a 25-9 lead against Baltimore before losing, but I am not sold. This is the perfect blend of a 49ers team coming off three straight losses, and a Colts team looking like they have solved all their problems against a very bad team.
This is where the strength of the opponent can play tricks on you. San Francisco gave the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals their stiffest test of the season in Trey Lance's starting debut. The Colts' two wins are against teams with a combined record of 2-10. Jimmy Garoppolo is back at practice and should provide a boost for the 49ers. San Francisco's offense is fifth in red-zone efficiency, while the Colts are 31st. There is a big difference between a touchdown and a field goal when laying 3.5 points. I'm grabbing the gold rush with the 49ers on a short line.