NFL betting: Poking holes in your Week 5 moneyline parlay

·5-min read

In Week 4, we saw three big favorites go down with the Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams. Additionally, the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers just barely survived after last-minute field goals went their way. 

Which favorites are at risk of getting tripped up in Week 5? There are eight teams currently sitting with moneyline prices of at least -200 at BetMGM.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

The 1-3 Minnesota Vikings are -450 favorites to keep the Detroit Lions winless on Sunday. The Lions are one of just two winless teams remaining in the NFL. Last week was probably their worst game, but they still fought back to make the scoreline respectable. Detroit builds their offense through their rushing attack, as they're above average in yards-per-carry. Minnesota ranks 28th in yards-per-rush allowed. Minnesota has lost three of their first four games. In their last game against the Browns, Minnesota scored on their opening drive and then scored no points for the rest of the game. Kirk Cousins has been streaky throughout his career, so be weary of a potential bad stretch for Cousins. 

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - OCTOBER 03: Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings is sacked with the ball by Myles Garrett #95 of the Cleveland Browns in the third quarter of the game at U.S. Bank Stadium on October 3, 2021 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings is sacked by Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns in Week 4. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is currently a -550 favorite against the Miami Dolphins in a meeting between the two Floridian teams. Miami hangs around in its games and has a solid defense. The Dolphins defense actually gives up less yards per play than the much more heralded Buccaneers defense. Tom Brady is coming off a really emotional game last weekend and this is a potential letdown spot. Maybe the Buccaneers start slow, Miami gets a lead and then hangs on for dear life. 

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Tennessee Titans are -200 favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. For the first time this season, the Jaguars didn't turn the ball over in Week 4 against the Bengals. Jacksonville almost won that game before losing in the last second. At this point, the Urban Meyer story is front and center but often times, teams can rally around a distraction like that. On the other side, the Titans are coming off a loss to the New York Jets. The Titans should get some weapons back, but you know the Jaguars smells blood in the water as they try and get their first win. 

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

New England is a -450 favorite on the road against the Houston Texans this week. It's really hard to make a case for the Texans after what we saw from them last week. Davis Mills very clearly is in way over his head. There's a reason the Texans are 9-point underdogs at home against a 1-3 team with a rookie quarterback. How do the Patriots lose this game? They are coming off an emotional week when Tom Brady came back to town. Maybe this is a potential letdown spot. Maybe Mac Jones has one of those rookie meltdowns that rookies sometimes have? 

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas is a -225 favorite at home against the Chicago Bears in Week 5. The Raiders are coming off their first loss of the season. At this point, despite their 3-1 record, it's hard to view Las Vegas as more than a middling team. Two of their wins came in overtime and the third was against the statue posing as a quarterback in Pittsburgh. On the other side, the Bears have named Justin Fields their starter which significantly raises the ceiling of their offense. Matt Nagy relinquished play-calling duties against Detroit and the offense suddenly looked competent. Their defense gets after the quarterback. I think the Bears are a live dog here. 

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

After three straight wins, the Dallas Cowboys are -350 favorites at home over the New York Giants this weekend. The Cowboys have surpassed expectations of even the most optimistic Cowboys supporters. Dak Prescott looks great in his return from injury, Ezekiel Elliott has quieted the concerns of him being washed up and the defense has been tremendous. However, you're definitely buying the Cowboys at their peak here. On the other side, the Giants are two last-second field goals from potentially being 3-1. Daniel Jones has quietly had a very good season at quarterback. New York won straight up as a 7.5-point underdog last week in New Orleans. 

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are the last undefeated team remaining in the NFL, and they're -200 favorites at home against the San Francisco 49ers. Absolutely nobody expected the Cardinals to be 4-0 at this point, so you're paying a premium on them here. They are coming off a huge win over the Rams last week, so a letdown is always a concern. I have a feeling there's a clunker coming for this Cardinals team soon. Trey Lance will get the start for the 49ers and he adds an element to their offense that is hard to prepare for. 

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are -300 favorites at home against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5. The Ravens have won three straight games after losing their opener. The Colts just got their first won of the season last week after opening with a tough schedule. The hope is that Carson Wentz is getting healthier after his heroic effort to survive two ankle injuries at the same time a few weeks ago. The Colts' biggest weakness on defense is their coverage, and it remains to be seen if Lamar Jackson could consistently take advantage with his arm. 

Confidence ratings

This list underscores my confidence in this week's favorites in descending order.

1. New England

2. Tampa Bay

3. Minnesota

4. Baltimore

5. Dallas

6. Tennessee

7. Arizona

8. Las Vegas

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