NFL betting: Only 1 team still perfect vs. spread, and it's the surprising Falcons
Here's a tip of the cap to the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 5-0 in the actual NFL standings. Heck of a start.
Bettors who were onto the Eagles early in the season are certainly happy with Philadelphia. However, they're not the bettors' champion through five weeks.
Often the way to win betting the NFL is finding the ugliest sides on the board, the teams nobody wants to bet, and taking them. Nobody was projecting the Atlanta Falcons to be the most profitable team in the NFL early this season, but here we are.
There's only one team in the NFL that's still undefeated against the spread, and it's a Falcons team that many thought might be the worst team in football this season. They haven't been favored in a game yet this season either. But they always keep it close.
Falcons are perfect vs. spread
The Falcons are 2-3 straight up, and that's where we get a disconnect between the betting world and typical football analysis.
A 2-3 start isn't great. But the Falcons are well ahead of the betting market, which says they're doing some things right even if the wins haven't followed.
Here's how the Falcons' season has gone, with closing lines from Covers.com:
Week 1: Lost 27-26 to New Orleans Saints as 6-point underdog
Week 2: Lost 31-27 to Los Angeles Rams as 10.5-point underdog
Week 3: Won 27-23 vs. Seattle Seahawks as 1-point underdog
Week 4: Won 23-20 vs. Cleveland Browns as 1-point underdog
Week 5: Lost 21-15 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 10.5-point underdog
In Week 1, the Falcons led most of the game before the Saints won at the end. The cover was never in question. The other four games, it was a sweat each time. There were huge fourth-quarter comebacks against the Rams and Buccaneers to cover, and that's hard to depend on each week. Falcons bettors have to feel like they've been a little fortunate.
But ultimately the most important thing is cashing tickets, and nobody has done that better than the Falcons. Everyone else has lost at least once against the spread this season.
Can Falcons keep it going?
Just because the Falcons are the 1972 Miami Dolphins of covering spreads through five weeks, that doesn't mean to keep betting on them blindly.
No team gets that far away from .500 against the spread over a season. Last season only three teams finished with more than 10 wins against the spread in a 17-game season. The Dallas Cowboys were 13-4 against the spread last season, leading the NFL. The Green Bay Packers were 12-5 and the Detroit Lions were 11-6. The Falcons will start losing some games against the spread soon.
Still, there's a lesson in the Falcons' hot start. The teams that get the preseason hype, and the ones that get all the early-season attention for big wins aren't always the most profitable. Point spreads get adjusted for those teams and it gets harder to win bets with them. The Eagles, for example, were a bit bloated as a 5.5-point favorite at the Arizona Cardinals last week. They won 20-17, which didn't cover the spread.
Nobody is paying much attention to the Falcons, except for bettors who are profiting on them. Atlanta is a 5.5-point home underdog at BetMGM against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Brave bettors might be hoping for the Falcons' covering streak to continue.
