NFL betting: Here's 1 season-long Nick Chubb prop to wager now
I don’t put too much faith in the Cleveland Browns or in quarterback Deshaun Watson. I do, however, have confidence in one of the best running backs in the league, Nick Chubb. I tend to have weekly financial trust in Chubb during the season. This year looks to be no different. If you like wagering on season-long props, consider the over on Chubb’s rushing yards.
Prop: Nick Chubb total regular season rushing yards OVER 1200.5 (-115)
Let’s look at a few metrics from the 2022 season. Last year, Chubb had the most rush attempts and rushing yards of his career. Chubb had the third-most carries in the league and the third-most rushing yards among all backs while ranking first for evaded tackles. Chubb is good, Derrick “King” Henry good. He was money in the weekly prop market and I’ll be looking to back him again this season. Chubb has now posted at least five yards per carry in all five seasons of his career. Now for reasons to like the over on his rushing prop.
Lack of depth
Chubb has been the Browns’ workhorse, but Kareem Hunt was a solid pinch hitter as he finished top 40 in carries and top 35 in carries of 15-plus yards. Hunt was less productive the last two seasons, which is why he’s a free agent. Behind Chubb, there’s not much to ignite belief that he won’t be a workhorse once again. Jerome Ford sits behind Chubb in the depth chart. He has eight carries to his name. One glimmer of positivity: Ford recorded the third-most kickoff return yards. Prepare for the Chubb show to continue in 2023.
Offensive line protection
Fortunately for him, Chubb will be well protected behind what has been one of the best offensive lines in the league. It's projected to once again be a top-five unit as the Browns return all five starters. It’s a contributing factor to Chubb holding the second-best stuffed run rate in the league and top 10 in true yards per carry. Four starters (including three Pro Bowlers) on the O-line have been up front since 2020 in Jedrick Wills Jr., Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller, and Jack Conklin. The only change has been Ethan Pocic being named starter at center after Nick Harris got hit with a preseason injury.
Pocic, Conklin, and Teller all missed at least two games last year from injury. Despite missing time, the Browns' backs still averaged 4.7 yards per carry, eighth-best in the league. If the offensive line can stay healthy, then the consistency and coherent history of this unit can assist Chubb in having another stellar season.
Betting tip: Also consider wagering the over on Chubb’s reception props during regular season games. Last year, he recorded his second-most receptions and receiving yards of his career. Watson now has a full offseason to watch film, improve in the passing game and grow more comfortable with the offense. The dust should be shaken off and Chubb could see the benefits. The offensive line finished the 2022 season ranked third in pass block win rate.
