The NFL playoff race continues to morph and tighten like Tom Brady's jawline as we enter the penultimate week of the regular season. Can the Miami Dolphins hold onto their postseason spot? Will Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings remain on the outside of the plexiglass, looking in? More importantly, will the league's hottest teams continue to cover spreads? Here's an ATS rankings breakdown for all 32 teams heading into Week 17:
1. Dallas Cowboys 12-3 against the spread (have covered by +91 points)
Buzzsaw offense, wrecking ball defense. They may be the toughest out in the playoffs.
Week 17: (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
2. Green Bay Packers 11-4 (+9)
Their 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1 feels like it was three years ago.
Week 17: (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
3. Indianapolis Colts 10-5 (+96.5)
The NFL's new COVID-19 rules may allow for unvaccinated QB Carson Wentz to play on Sunday, even after testing positive Tuesday.
Week 17: (-6.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
4. New England Patriots 9-6 (+98.5)
New England clinches a playoff spot with a win over the Jags and a loss by the Dolphins or Raiders.
Week 17: (-14.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Buffalo Bills 9-6 (+50.5)
Josh Allen dealt with the Patriots like he had a briefcase handcuffed to his wrist.
Week 17: (-14.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
6. Arizona Cardinals 9-6 (+31)
They've lost three in a row. The offense looks flat without DeAndre Hopkins.
Week 17: (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys
7. Tennessee Titans 9-6 (+29.5)
Good things happen when you throw the ball to A.J. Brown.
Week 17: (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
8. Detroit Lions 9-6 (-3.5)
The Lions have covered six of their last seven. Rookie receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown saw 46 targets in December.
Week 17: (+7) at Seattle Seahawks
9. Philadelphia Eagles 8-6-1 (+72.5)
Philly ran for 238 yards against Washington two weeks ago.
Week 17: (-4) at Washington Football Team
10. Cincinnati Bengals 8-7 (+68.5)
This offense is delightful to watch when they let Joe Burrow sling the ball.
Week 17: (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Kansas City Chiefs 8-7 (+28)
They've covered six in a row. That's a lot of prime rib for Chiefs bettors.
Week 17: (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-7 (+8)
A few weeks ago, Tom Brady was a -150 favorite to win MVP. He now sits at +650.
Week 17: (-13.5) at New York Jets
13. Miami Dolphins 8-7 (+1.5)
The good: They've won seven straight. The bad: The teams they've beaten, who sport a combined winning percentage of .356.
Week 17: (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans
14. Minnesota Vikings 8-7 (+0)
Minnesota's defense ranks 28th against the run and 27th versus the pass.
Week 17: (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
15. Los Angeles Rams 8-7 (-2)
After losing three in a row as favorites, they've won and covered their last four. Can Matthew Stafford take advantage of a decimated Ravens secondary that let Joe Burrow torch them for 525 passing yards?
Week 17: (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
16. San Francisco 49ers 8-7 (-5.5)
Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a torn UCL and fracture in his right thumb against the Titans and hasn't been able to throw. Trey Lance szn?
Week 17: (-12.5) vs. Houston Texans
17. New Orleans Saints 7-8 (+25.5)
This is one Book we're going to judge by his (failure to) cover.
Week 17: (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers
18. Denver Broncos 7-8 (+17)
Denver has an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver and an embarrassment at quarterback.
Week 17: (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
19. Houston Texans 7-8 (+6.5)
This team is as interested in tanking as Ghandi.
Week 17: (+12.5) at San Francisco 49ers
20. Seattle Seahawks 7-8 (-9)
Rashaad Penny has rushed for at least 135 yards in two of his last three games.
Week 17: (-7) vs. Detroit Lions
21. Los Angeles Chargers 7-8 (-34.5)
Getting blown out by the Texans should be worth two losses.
Week 17: (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos
22. Cleveland Browns 7-8 (-35.5)
They're currently in last place in the AFC North but could possibly take the division if they win their final two games.
Week 17: (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
23. New York Giants 6-9 (-24.5)
The Giants are averaging a paltry 11.5 points per game since their Week 10 bye.
Week 17: (+6) at Chicago Bears
24. Baltimore Ravens 6-9 (-28.5)
Baltimore's secondary has devolved into a tertiary.
Week 17: (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
25. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-9 (-51.5)
The Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin. That streak will remain intact unless they lose both of their remaining games against the Browns and Ravens.
Week 17: (+3) vs. Cleveland Browns
26. Las Vegas Raiders 6-9 (-53)
They managed to eke out wins against Nick Mullens and Drew Lock, now the Raiders may get to face rookie Sam Ehlinger instead of Carson Wentz.
Week 17: (+6.5) at Indianapolis Colts
27. Atlanta Falcons 6-9 (-82)
Matt Ryan has thrown for more than 240 yards just once in his last seven games.
Week 17: (+14.5) at Buffalo Bills
28. Washington Football Team 5-9-1 (-45.5)
Washington is 0-8 in games where their running back doesn't rush for more than 60 yards. The Eagles' rushing defense ranks ninth in the NFL this season and second over the last three games.
Week 17: (+4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
29. Chicago Bears 5-10 (-30.5)
Just a quick reminder that Matt Nagy won Coach of the Year a few seasons ago.
Week 17: (-6) vs. New York Giants
30. Carolina Panthers 5-10 (-41.5)
They've lost 10 of 12 since starting the year 3-0.
Week 17: (+7) at New Orleans Saints
31. New York Jets 5-10 (-77.5)
The Jets are more like magnanimous traffic controllers, allowing more yards per game than any other team.
Week 17: (+13.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
32. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-11 (-97.5)
In Jacksonville, all those foam fingers in the stands represent their draft position.
Week 17: (+14.5) at New England Patriots
Stats provided by PFF, teamrankings.com, and nfl.com.